All posts by Steve Lewis Hamilton

Huntingdon braves the weather

January 13, 2017 Steve Lewis Hamilton

With Sedgefield abandoned we are left with just the one turf meeting at Huntingdon today. The going is currently Good to Soft and the big factor will be the strong winds expected to sweep across the course. Riding expertise will play a large part.

There are already quite a few non-runners and that may increase if there are difficulties reaching the course and conditions get worse.

Two races to focus on:

2.20

Very open race despite the three non-runners already declared.

Midnight Folie could be well handicapped and is worth keeping an eye on, but has to prove she handles ground and stays trip.

Water Wagtail is more exposed, but handles conditions and is expected to run well.

I price the market leaders as follows:

Water Wagtail 4/1

Northandsouth 5/1

Wait a Second 11/2

Midnight Folie 11/2

The Jugopolist 8/1

14/1 bar

Huntingdon races2.50 Hunt

Difficult race to be confident about with ex French trained Divin Bere having first start for Nicky Henderson.

Master Blueyes was noted on latest start and is not one I would oppose.

I go 5/4 the pair.

Prospects for tomorrow look a lot brighter when we have three jumps meetings to go at.

horse racing

Fascinating but no value

December 17, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Fascinating day of racing. However, there is little value to be had. For me it will be mainly a watching brief today.As a professional, there is no point in having bets just for the sake of it. There will be better opportunities along the way.

Quick look at two races from Ascot.

1.15:

My prices for the top three

Top Notch 1/1

Hammersly Lake 4/1

Caid Du Berlais 4/1

Top Notch is the best horse, has to prove he gets the trip.

2.25:

Loath to oppose Unowhatimeanharry. Deserves to be at short odds.

French raider Alex De Larredya looked a classy prospect on last outing.

Will be back for our final blog of the year on boxing day.

Hope you have a good Christmas.

horse racing

Friday 16th update

December 16, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Going to quickly go through my notes for four races at Ascot this afternoon.

1.20: Back By Midnight impressed last time but needs to get more fluency into his jumping. Two potential dangers if he doesn’t cause his own problems are Mr Spingspong and Red Devil Star. Both of which in varying degress need to get back old form.

Mr Spingspong has his first start for Brian Ellison. Favourably handicapped if the switch reinvigorates the 9y.o. Has conditions to suit.

Red Devil Star finished third to Back By Midnight last time which was a slight disappointment on his promising second at Wincanton the run before.

1.55: A race worth noting as all six can improve. Captain Forez of most interest. His debut at Newbury suggested he could make up to be a decent performer.

2.30: Politologue 11/10 my tissue. Not as clear cut as the market currently suggests.

3.05: Ballyarthur is progressive. But too short at the current 7/4. 5/2 my tissue.

Back tomorrow just after 12.00.

horse racing

20/1 target

December 10, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

We stay at Cheltenham for the second day of the International meeting. The going is Good/Good to Soft in places and showers are likely during the afternoon.

1.15 Cheltenham Raymond Mould Handicap Chase (CLASS 2)

Top weighted Vaniteux looks sure to have benefited from his reappearance at Ascot and is favourably handicapped on last season’s form.

Sew On Target is an outsider to keep an eye on having dropped in the handicap. Plenty of 20/1 around this morning. Unless the rains arrive he may find conditions too sharp, but is worth considering for future engagements.

I make Vaniteux my 7/2 favourite.

1.50 Cheltenham Caspian Caviar Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

A few of these tie in together on recent Betvictor Gold Cup form.

Aso would be my preferred of these-softening ground would be a plus.

Kylemore Lough is also expected to figure, again with softer ground being a bonus.

8/1 the field on my tissue.

3.00 Cheltenham stanjames.com International Hurdle (Grade 2)

Six declared for the £74,000 first prize.

A very difficult race to evaluate with form horse My Tent Or Yours being at short odds despite having something to prove after a disappointing run at Haydock.

Melodic Rendezvouz finished in front of My Tent yet is the outsider of the field.

The New One is of interest, with his chasing career being put on hold for his attempt to win this race.

I make My Tent Or Yours and The New One my 11/4 joint favourites.

Special membership terms are available for the remainder of the jumps campaign. Full details at: http://www.slh.co.uk/201617-jumps-campaign/

horse racing

Wide open for Sam

December 9, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

After some fairly moderate cards this week, horse racing springs to life with good meetings at Cheltenham and Doncaster plus an interesting ‘undercard’ at Bangor.

I am looking at two races from Cheltenham where the going is Good but firmer on the Cross-Country course.

Cheltenham 12.20 Jockey Club Ownership Syndicate Novices´ Chase (CLASS 2)

A case can be made for 6 runners contesting a decent £25,000 in prize money.

Emerging Force stayed on well to win at Exeter, though tended to jump right-handed, which could be a problem today. Looking at the general prices, I have him bigger than the 9/4 on offer.

Arpege D’alene is talented but not straightforward.

Laurium, Label Des Obeaux and Singlefarmpayment have a similar level of form.

Relentless Dreamer will need to improve, but impressed on his latest start.

I price the six as follows:

Arpege D’alene 7/2

Emerging Force 4/1

Laurium 5/1

Label Des Obeaux 5/1

Singlefarmpayment 5/1

Relentless Dreamer 10/1

Cheltenham 1.30 Unicoin Group Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

Cogry has failed to complete on three starts this season but is fairly handicapped.

Southfield Theatre looked the winner when falling latest start and hadn’t been completely fluent prior to the fall at the last fence .

Out Sam has a piece of form that makes him very attractively weighted and I would keep him onside.

I go 6/1 the field in a wide open affair, with Out Sam being the preference.

Out Sam

It has been a quiet week so far, the rise in quality should present more opportunities starting today.

horse racing

Mad to step up again?

December 3, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Four good meetings for us this afternoon with four races apiece from Sandown and Aintree on Channel 4. The going remains Good/Good to Soft. A cloudy and dry day is forecast across the country.

Two races for us this afternoon, both at Sandown.

12.20 Sandown Barry Rawlings “What A Year” “National Hunt” Novices´ Hurdle (CLASS 3)

Cruiseaweigh was impressive when winning his bumper at Aintree early last month and is of most interest.

Bardd bumper form isn’t as strong.

Dashing Oscar and Crystal Lad set hurdles form standard.

I have Cruiseaweigh in at 7/4 on my provisional tissue.

3.00 Sandown Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) (CLASS 1)

Un De Sceaux sets a high standard if near his best.

Ar Mad is the unexposed improver.

I go 6/4 Un De Sceaux and 9/2 Ar Mad.

Un De Sceaux on his way to Arkle victory

Just the one bet for us yesterday, a strong and successful lay of a heavily backed short odds favourite. With the lays I specialise in going against the market by opposing favourites who I consider poor value. Yesterday I set a maximum lay limit of 2.4, our bet was returned at 2.1.

By concentrating on favourites we have much greater liquidity and by having a maximum cut-off price, I eliminate the dangerous practice of laying blind. On all lays this year we have a success rate of well over 70%, quite a few have been odds-on.

horse racing

More is less…

December 2, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

After an inspection racing goes ahead at Sandown but due to lingering frost patches Exeter has been called off. The going at Sandown is Good/Good to Soft. We have two races to analyse.

12.40 Sandown Coldunell Finance Amateur Riders´ Handicap Chase (For The John Dunsdon Memorial Cup) (CLASS 3)

Generally don’t get too heavily involved in amateur races like this. But it is of interest with the favourite being plenty short enough.

More Buck’s could improve but at the current 2/1 is too tight in the market.

Azure Fly and Vikekhal come into this race in form and have a similar chance to the favourite. I have all three as 4/1 co fav’s on my prov tissue.

1.50 Sandown Zurich Insurance PLC Novices´ Limited Handicap Chase (CLASS 3)

Difficult race to evaluate with various doubts concerning all seven runners.

Masterplan jumped and travelled well until weakening quickly on his latest start. He has since undergone a breathing operation.

Antartica De Thaix doesn’t look a straightforward ride.

Volvalien form isn’t strong.

4/1 the field my provisional tissue.

With both races I would want to see how the market develops.

Back tomorrow morning as we have Sandown and Aintree leading a very good afternoon of racing.

horse racing

33/1 Hennessy winner?

November 26, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Good to Soft is the general going today after a cold frosty night. Newcastle is on after a second inspection. We stay at Newbury for two races, starting with the Henneesy.

3.10 Newbury Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3)

Richest handicap chase this side of the Grand National. A 10/1 the field race with very few completely ruled out.

At the top end of the market Un Temps Pour Tout makes most appeal.

His from the front win over hurdles on reappearance has set him up perfectly for today’s race.

At the weights Holywell ties in with Un Temps Pour Tout on Cheltenham Festival form. However he finished tailed off on his reappearance over hurdles.

Triolo D’Alene won this race in 2013. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him run well today at big odds. Plenty of 33/1 around this morning if you fancy another each way punt following yesterday’s e/w option which came in at 5/1 having been as big as 13/2 in the morning.

Triolo D'Alene winning the Hennessy — Triolo D’Alene winning the Hennessy

3.45 Newbury bet365 Handicap Chase (For The Jim Joel Memorial Trophy) (CLASS 2)

Parsnip Pete finished behind Raven’s Tower at Aintree three weeks ago and was giving 11lb to the winner. He is expected to improve for that effort and can reverse that form today.

The form of Imjoeking’s Kelso win is working out nicely. He is a prominent runner who jumps well and is expected to figure.

I have Parsnip Pete and Imjoeking as 11/2 joint favs on my tissue.

Great day of racing which I hope you enjoy. Back on Friday, in the meantime get your free noted horses at: www.slh.co.uk

horse racing

Bally short

November 25, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

We have a good few days of racing ahead starting today with the opening day of the Hennessy meeting at Newbury and a decent card at Doncaster. We add to these two tomorrow with the ‘Fighting Fifth’ meeting at Newcastle.

Three races for us this afternoon from Newbury where the chase course is Good to Soft(soft in places) and it is Soft (good to soft in places) for the hurdlers.

Newbury 1.05

Wide open handicap that should throw up future winners.

Double W’s, Sirabad and Valseur Du Granval are all progressive.

Remiluc makes his chasing debut on a fair mark.

He impressed when winning over hurdles on latest start, his jumping suggesting that fences shouldn’t be a problem.

Difficult race to evaluate-5/1 the field.

Double W's (far side) — Double W’s (far side)

Newbury 2.10

Ballyoptic got outpaced then was staying on when falling at the last at Wetherby-he would have gone close. Nigel Twiston-Davies reported: “Ballyoptic jumped the hurdle all right but slipped on landing two strides after it, but it hasn’t dented his confidence as he’s schooled well since. We think he’d have won that day, but we would wouldn’t we? He was going very well though, and the softer ground will help here. I’m very happy with him.”

Menorah is of interest switching to hurdles, with cheek-pieces fitted.

Snow Falcon and Unowhatimeanharry are expected to progress.

Ballyoptic is my favourite, but is short in the market being as low as 15/8 this morning.

I price the main contenders as follows:

Ballyoptic 3/1

Snow Falcon 5/1

Unowhatimeanharry 11/2

Menorah 6/1

12/1 bar

Newbury 3.20

Behind Time impressed last week at Cheltenham-deserves to be at short odds.

Solomn Grundy finished 2nd in that race and was also noted. He is the E/W option.

I price the pair:

Behind Time 11/8

Solomn Grundy 3/1

10/1 bar

We look as though a spell of settled weather and with it consistent going will be with us for the current period. This provides more accurate form analysis and an increase in my own betting turnover which has had to be notably restrained of late due to a radical change in ground conditions.

Back tomorrow for the Hennessy and more

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Baby repeat?

November 19, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Whilst we have Good to Soft ground at Ascot and Huntingdon, the going at Haydock will be Heavy. The track has had further rain this morning and can expect a little more this afternoon. Haydock is a course that trainers would expect and sometimes hope for that extra cut in the ground as shown by the current low level of non-runners.

Two races for us to look at starting with the opener:

12.10 Haydock Read Paul Nicholls Exclusively On Betfair Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 3)

Clyne impressed when last seen and will be suited by conditions.

Baby King disappointed after winning this race last year. He goes well fresh and is expected to figure.

Verni isn’t an easy ride, but has the champion jockey on board and can progress.

My tissue:

Clyne 3/1

Baby King 3/1

Verni 3/1

Baratineur 5/1

16/1 bar

1.50 Haydock Betfair Price Rush Hurdle (CLASS 2)

Just the four to post to contest the winner’s prize of just on £62,000 with all of them guaranteed to take home a share of the overall prize.

Old Guard has a bit to prove after scrambling home in a chase on latest start.

Ch’tibello isn’t sure to be suited by testing ground.

Melodic Rendezvous is at his best in heavy ground, but looked to regress at the end of last season.

My Tent Or Yours sets the standard, although ground conditions are not ideal.

I price the four as follows:

My Tent 1/1

Old Guard 3/1

Ch’tibello 7/1

Melodic Rendezvous 7/1

On the Haydock card we see the welcome return of the sparkling 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Coneygree. Let’s hope he stays fit and can be an important player this season.

It is an intriguing and informative day of racing at all three jumps fixtures plus there are a few at Punchestown that will be of interest for the future.

Professional backer – Horse Racing Advisory Service