All posts by Steve Lewis Hamilton

16/1 Favorite!

November 18, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Two races for us at Ascot this afternoon where the going is Good to Soft. The other two jump cards at Haydock and Ffos Las are more exposed to the bad weather and the ground at both could deteriorate considerably.

2.45 Ascot

Three runners return from a break including The Clock Leary, who is fairly handicapped. He comes from the Venetia Williams yard who have had two winners from five runners this week. A stable who seem to specialise in horses who like a bit of extra cut in the ground.

Fox Appeal has been below form on his last two starts, but will appreciate a return to a right-hand track.

Present Man form is slightly suspect and he hasn’t always found for pressure.

Difficult race to evaluate with total confidence but I would keep The Clock Leary onside. I make him the 3/1 fav.

3.55 Ascot

A lot of unknown quantities to this race, not least the market leader Cyrname making his British debut after three races in France, the last of those being ten months ago.

Favorite Girl won on the flat recently and looks overpriced. The current 16/1 offers some value.

Poor quality and changing ground have been key contributors to the lack of decent betting opportunities so far this week. However we have had one bet, a strong one for a very impressive winner whose progress I will be following.

Get your free noted horses shortlist which has already started winning by going to: www.slh.co.uk

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Form figures misleading…

November 12, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Back for the second day at Cheltenham and the ground has eased to Good to Soft with further rain forecast today. I will be getting a course update from a contact later this morning before making final plans.

I am going to concentrate on a few noted horses running in wide open handicaps.

Cheltenham 1.50 BetVictor Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

Racing Pulse unseated his rider fairly early when expected to go well on latest start.

Uninspiring form figures are misleading as this horse retains plenty of ability.

He is well handicapped on the best of his form, will be suited by soft ground and can go well in a highly competitive race.

Currently a general 16/1 and 18/1 best, which looks about right.

Racing Pulse (right) winning at Chepstow earlier this year.

Cheltenham 2.25 BetVictor Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

Taquin Du Seuil and Buywise have the benefit of recent pipe openers over hurdles.

Both will be suited by the softening ground conditions, and are fairly handicapped.

A case of sorts can be made for all eighteen declared, although nine of them make their seasonal reappearance.

Too many unknowns to price accurately but the two mentioned are expected to run very well at double figure prices.

For more details about my work and to get my free shortlist of early season noted horses, go to: http://www.slh.co.uk/free-information-pack/

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Peregrine to swoop?

November 11, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

First day of the Cheltenham Open meeting and three races to look at. The track has been watered over the last few weeks and the going is Good/Good to Soft in places.

12.55 Cheltenham Glenfarclas Veterans´ Handicap Chase (CLASS 2)

Due to firm ground the Cross Country chase has been postponed to late January and this race for the older horses substituted.

Ericht and Realt Mor are the two runners with recent form. Both having run last week with Realt Mor being one of a number of winners for Gordon Elliott at Down Royal.

Astracad is of interest, having been sent to the sales and then bought back by his trainer.

With Shuil Royale now a non-runner the above three are at the head of the market.

I go 9/2 the field.

2.40 Cheltenham Neptune Investment Management Hyde Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2)

West Approach and Wholestone are essentially the same horse on previous form.

Peregrine Run continues to improve.

Baden sets the form standard. The grey has had four career outings; two in Ireland and his two in Britain have both been at this course.

My provisional tissue:

Baden 3/1

Peregrine Run 9/2

West Approach 9/2

Wholestone 9/2

20/1 bar

3.15 Cheltenham Opus Energy Novices´ Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 3)

Eighteen runners at present and the layers are taking no chances with their morning prices.

Plenty of these look badly handicapped.

Tudor City was a very easy winner on latest start on the flat.

Air Horse One is potentially well handicapped on his bumper form, but this is reflected in the 4/1 currently on offer.

Yearly profits have increased again this week with a strong bet on an impressive 11/4 winner. For more details about the service and latest membership terms go to: www.slh.co.uk

Back tomorrow morning for day 2.

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Dee value – Cocktails return?

November 5, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Informative day of racing at Aintree who have had plenty of rain yesterday evening and provide a welcome report of good to soft ground. We go to Wincanton for two races of interest. The going there is good.

Wincanton 1.35 Wincanton Rising Stars Novices´ Chase (Grade 2)

Intriguing two and a half miler where a case can be made for all four runners. All four are progressive

On chase form achieved Master Dee looks overpriced at around 9/1-10/1.

My tissue:

Shantou Village 5/2

Frodon 5/2

Virgilio 5/2

Master Dee 11/2

Wincanton 3.20 Badger Ales Trophy Handicap Chase (Listed Race)

A few potentially well handicapped contenders in Cocktails At Dawn, Southfield Theatre and Fingerontheswitch.

The latter fell on latest start and needs to get his jumping together.

Excuses can be made for Cocktails At Dawn failing to complete on last two starts. However, he has to prove himself at this distance.

Southfield Theatre boasts some excellent back form and looks to have been targeted at this race.

I price the three as follows:

Southfield Theatre 4/1

Cocktails At Dawn 8/1

Fingerontheswitch 8/1

The meeting at Warwick yesterday highlighted the problems some courses are having with the firmer ground. Plenty of non-runners before racing which was exacerbated by further withdrawals as racing progressed. We ended up with one bet yesterday, a strong and successful lay of a long odds-on favourite.

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A watching day?

November 4, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

We have a weekend filled with plenty of top class racing, unfortunately the cards on offer today are of a fairly low calibre.

Despite the course watering, the dry Autumn has meant Warwick are reporting ground that is good to firm in places. There are already a good number of non-runners.

Two races to quickly look at are:

Warwick 1.25

Two NR’s leaving four to post at present.

Silvergrove has his first run since finishing third at the Cheltenham Festival in a handicap chase. He is capable of taking this novice hurdle before returning to chases. Currently a general 11/10.

A race made more interesting by the Skelton runner making British debut having had just the two races in Ireland.

Warwick 2.35

Again two NR’s with eight remaining in this 2m handicap hurdle.

Courtlands Prince would probably have won on latest start but for a mistake at the final hurdle in an incident packed finish. I go 9/4 whilst 7/4 is on offer generally.

The Pipe yard try the tongue-tie on Nice Thoughts in a bid to get back to the form shown in early summer.

It has been a very quiet week for us as there has been nothing worthy of serious backing. I will be keeping a close watch on Down Royal today with some of the big Irish yards going up against each other.

My All Weather team had a good 11/4 winner yesterday and added further to the impressive profits made so far this year. More details of this and the comprehensive racing service on offer, go to: www.slh.co.uk

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Not for me at 6/4

October 29, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Another informative day of racing ahead. Ascot hold their first jumps fixture of the season and there are a few ‘big guns’ making seasonal debuts. The ground there is Good to Firm in places. Such conditions are keeping a fair number of summer horses in action than may have been originally planned and not helping trainers who want to get a run into their winter stock on softer ground.

I am going to again concentrate on Wetherby today.

Wetherby 2.10 olbg.com Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race)

A very tight contest and there is little to choose between 5 of the 6 remaining contestants after Degenerous was declared a non-runner.

Pass The Time has been chasing and may find conditions on the sharp side.

Stephanie Francis has also been over fences and her jockey is unable to claim her allowance in this higher grade of race.

On my tissue:

Card Game, Midnight Jazz, Miss Crick, Stephanie Francis 7/2 co favs

Pass The Time 7/1

Wetherby 2.45 bet365 Hurdle (Registered As The West Yorkshire Hurdle) (Grade 2

Again a very tight betting race. The current 6/4 market favourite is Ballyoptic who comes here in search of his fifth consecutive victory. He has the advantage of a recent run but makes little appeal at current odds.

If In Doubt, Native River and Silsol have all achieved a similar level of form and for me represent better value than that currently on offer.

I go:

Ballyoptic 3/1

If In Doubt 4/1

Native River 5/1

Silsol 6/1

The Romford Pele 6/1

14/1 bar

Whilst there will be plenty of attention paid to the likes of Saphir du Rheu and Cue Card this afternoon, it has got to be remembered that the ultimate target for the top class horses is the major festivals during March and April. Short term hype can often get in the way of a considered long term approach.

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Look & learn

October 28, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Concentrating on the informative card at Wetherby this afternoon which contains two listed races. Much of a watching brief today as we look at future potential.

The going at the Yorkshire track is good and a mild dry day is forecast.

2.10 Wetherby

Clondaw Cracker was an expensive purchase from Ireland going to the in-form Mulholland yard.

She impressed when winning her bumper at Warwick in April. Will be at short odds to win on hurdles debut.

3.55 Wetherby

This looks to be the best juvenile hurdle of the season so far.

Cliffs Of Dover sets a high standard and has the benefit of jumps experience. Won smartly at Cheltenham last Friday. I go 6/4 on my provisional tissue. The three unraced horses follow in the current betting.

Just the two bets for us so far this week providing a 4/1 loser and an 11/4 winner which have added to the overall profits for the year. For latest membership terms and to: http://www.slh.co.uk/201617-jumps-campaign/ and for a free copy of my early season noted horses shortlist apply via: http://www.slh.co.uk/free-information-pack/

Also my All Weather contacts have continued their great form with 7/1 and 9/2 winners from the last three bets.

Back tomorrow for the first jump card of the season at Ascot.

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Saturday value

October 22, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Excellent day’s racing to look forward to this afternoon. We have one race from both Cheltenham and Newbury to consider. The going at the latter is now good to soft throughout. A dry cloudy day is forecast at both courses.

Cheltenham 1.50 Randox Handicap Chase (CLASS 2)

A few fairly well handicapped horses take part in what should be a highly informative contest.

Henryville will be suited by conditions. He will be held-up and the stronger the early pace the more it will suit his running style.

Racing Pulse is fairly treated and from the in-form Rebecca Curtis stable.

Full Shift is well handicapped but has to prove he stays.

I marginally favour the chance of Alternatif, who is well weighted with conditions not an issue, and is available at double figure odds.

I go 8/1 the field on my provisional tissue

Newbury 2.20 Worthington´s OCSL Stakes (Registered As The St Simon) (Group 3)

Godolphin have the two market leaders with Frontiersman and Memorial Day.

Both step up in class having impressed in handicaps on last starts.

Memorial Day should go very close, having won after an eleven month absence. Stepping back up in trip could see him progress further.

My tissue:

9/2 Memorial Day

6/1 Frontiersman

10/1 Bar

An informative day yesterday and I expect today and tomorrow to provide more future pointers. Very shortly I will be compiling my early season noted horses shortlist. You can get a free copy by either applying for the information pack via: http://www.slh.co.uk/free-information-pack/ or emailing me at: steve@slh.co.uk

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Finger gamble value?

October 21, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

The two day Cheltenham Showcase meeting starts today. The ground has been watered over the last nine weeks of relatively dry weather to produce good going. With this meeting and Aintree on Sunday, the main 2016/17 jumps season is now taking centre stage.

Cheltenham 3.55 Ryman Stationery Cheltenham Business Club Novices´ Chase (CLASS 2)

Tiger Roll showed improved form over fences when winning the Grade A Munster National on latest start earlier this month. A repeat of that effort would make it very difficult task for his five rivals.

His trainer Gordon Elliott reported: “We were thrilled with the way he won the Munster National. He surprised me there but as a Triumph Hurdle winner he’s always had ability. The ground will suit and he’s been in good form since Limerick.”

I have him in at 5/4 and go 8/1 bar.

Cheltenham 5.05 Ryman Stationery Amateur Riders´ Handicap Chase (CLASS 3)

Fingerontheswitch is potentially thrown-in on the best of his hurdles form.

On the positive side conditions will suit and a very experienced jockey is booked.

However the negatives are that his jumping wasn’t entirely fluent at Cartmel on latest start and he didn’t appear to find much for pressure.

Although there has been support for him in the market this morning I would be cautious.

The next three days will be highly informative. We have a strong Irish contingent and many of the home horses making seasonal debuts, both important unknown factors. The bookmaker pricing will be defensive, making the assessment of true value more difficult. Statistically October is something of a bookmakers benefit month. I always take the long term disciplined approach and with a good profit already this month, I see no reason to get to seriously involved when I cannot see a clear advantage. You must wait for the correct opportunities and then take advantage of them.

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Comeback Jack?

October 15, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Champions Day and we are going to look at five races from Ascot. The richest race day of the flat season with £4.2 million prize money on offer. The going is Good and showers are forecast.

1.25 Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2)

We start with a 2 miler for 3 y.o.’s and over

Order Of St George sets a high standard. However that is reflected in his market price.

Having had a hard race in the Arc under a fortnight ago I would be wary of getting involved at very short odds.

I have them priced as follows:

Order Of St. George 5/4

Simple Verse 5/1

Forgotten Rules 10/1

Quest For More 10/1

14/1 Bar

2.00 Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1)

Two to look at in this wide open 6f sprint.

Twilight Son is a noted horse from last season who is expected to figure.

Signs Of Blessing form ties in with Twilight Son and he can go well at double figure odds.

I have it 5/1 the field which is slightly above the best on the current market and provisionally go the two mentioned as:

Twilight Son 13/2

Signs Of Blessing 11/1

3.10 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1)

Minding and Ribchester deservedly head the market as they contest for the winner’s prize of just over £650,000.

Around 8/11 the pair coupled looks about right and it’s a no play race for me.

3.45 Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1)

Close on three-quarters of a million for the winner.

There are good vibes concerning Jack Hobbs who is a previously noted horse. Last year’s Irish Derby winner returns after a five and a half month lay-off.

Almanzor has already beaten Arc winner Found and is a worthy favourite.

My tissue:

Almanzor 7/4

Found 3/1

Jack Hobbs 10/1

Fascinating 10/1

4.25 Balmoral Handicap (CLASS 2)

Wide open high class handicap where top weight GM Hopkins can figure on a course he habitually runs well at. Currently heads the market at a best priced 8/1.

A great day of racing, which I hope you enjoy.

Professional backer – Horse Racing Advisory Service