The jumps campaign is still in its early stages with a mixture of debutants and summer horses still on the go. Quick look at two races this afternoon:
2.05 Fakenham
Throthehatch has first start for the Skelton stable. Comes here on a potentially lenient handicap mark. 6/4 my provisional tissue and 11/10 generally with the books.
Hint Of Mint at Sandown last year
2.25 Wincanton
Moonday Sun improved on latest start. Hint Of Mint respected returning from an absence. Moonday Sun 2/1 ,Hint of Mint 9/4 on my provisional tissue
This is a time of year when discipline and the professional long term approach are pronounced. The main jumps season runs for seven months – a marathon not a sprint.
Just the one bet for us this week which rewarded us with a smart 8/1 winner.
Three races for us this afternoon. We start at Ascot where the going is Good and then onto Newmarket who have Good to Firm ground. Rain is expected at both courses this afternoon.
Ascot 2.30 Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3)
The three oldest horses in the field of nine are the market leaders.
Arab Spring returned to near his best with an impressive win at Kempton.
At his best Western Hymn would have every chance, but he has been below form on his last couple of starts.
Kings Fete could be the main danger to Arab Spring.
All three horses will handle any easing of the ground.
Arab Spring
The market looks about right. My provisional tissue:
Arab Spring 3/1
Kings Fete 4/1
Western Hymn 5/1
Move Up 8/1
12/1 Bar
3.05 Ascot John Guest Bengough Stakes (Group 3)
High class 2yo Shalaa makes his seasonal reappearance. Unbeaten in all of his last five starts.
Well documented reports suggest he has recovered well from a pelvic injury.
Softening ground not a problem. Would be good to see him return to his best.
Currently the general 2/1 favourite.
Shalaa
4.00 Newmarket Sun Chariot Stakes (Group 1)
Confined to fillies and mares, with a quarter of a million pounds on offer in prize money.
Alice Springs put a disappointing performance in France behind her with an impressive win at Leopardstown. That win confirms she is effective on easy and fast ground.
A reproduction of that form sets a high standard.
French challengers Ervedya [first time cheek-pieces] and Volta[first time tongue-tie] are the form dangers.
I price the main contenders as follows:
Alice Springs 6/4
Ervedya 5/1
Volta 5/1
12/1 Bar
Alice Springs
A reminder that there will not be a blog next week as preparations continue for the main 2016/17 jumps campaign. For more details and your free info pack, go to: www.slh.co.uk
First day of an interesting jumps meeting at Fontwell. Going to look at two races from the West Sussex track. The going is Good and the course has been watered. Rain expected this afternoon.
4.00 Fontwell
Workbench has dropped to a fair handicap mark over fences. However he disappointed on latest start over hurdles. You have to look back to this race in 2015 for his last victory, he also won this event in 2014 and therefore seeks a hat-trick today.
Bottom weighted Theatre Flame is fitted with cheek-pieces and can improve as he markedly steps up in class. Tom Cannon takes the ride for the first time today as Tom Scudamore is on the Pipe entry Purple and Gold.
I go 9/4 jt fav’s Workbench and Theatre Flame.
Theatre Flame
4.35 Fontwell
Wizards Bridge has been found a weak race and is weighted to win if retaining any of his old ability. Has been off the track since early May. Finished just the one race in four starts this year.
However, there are various doubts about all his rivals.
My provisional pricing:
Wizards Bridge 2/1
Strumble Head 9/2
Indiana Bay 9/2
Schindler’s Prince 9/2
Vikekhal 14/1
Master Rajeem 14/1
Wizards Bridge
Please note that there will not be a blog next Friday or Saturday as I prepare for the main jumps campaign. Get your free information pack and more details click here.
Focus on quality this afternoon with two Group 1 races at Newmarket where the going is Good to Firm plus a listed race from Market Rasen. The Lincolnshire track have watered and the ground is good. All three races on Channel 4.
2.55 Newmarket Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1)
6f sprint confined to 2y.o. fillies.
Lady Aurelia’s blistering performance at Royal Ascot was hard to believe.
She was below that level when winning over 6f in France on her latest start.
If she reproduces her Ascot form she will win, but on her French form she is beatable.
Queen Kindly and Roly Poly have achieved a similar level, with Queen Kindly looking sure to improve further.
I price the main contenders as follows:
Lady Aurelia 1/1
Queen Kindly 3/1
Roly Poly 4/1
Lady Aurelia
3.30 Newmarket Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group 1)
Entire 2y.o. colts again over 6f.
Blue Point is a noted horse with a big future.
Although beaten by Mehmas at Goodwood, he then improved on his latest start when impressively winning the Gimcrack at York.
Unfortunately his chance is reflected in the market. Currently a best price 11/8, I provisionally put him in at 6/4.
A difficult race to price with the in-form ‘summer’ horses looking vulnerable.
Fox Appeal is on a fair handicap mark, has conditions to suit and can go well fresh. Worth a close look.
Seefood has his second start for his present stable since coming over from Ireland. Just the one outing this year resulting in a tired fall at Kempton in early January.
Again conditions will suit and he can go well at double figure odds. There is a bit of 16/1 on offer.
Seefood winning at Fairyhouse
Preparations for the main Jumps campaign are progressing well. For more details and to get your free information pack, go to: www.slh.co.uk
Interesting day of racing as we look at three races.
3.55 Haydock
A wide open race with plenty of in-form horses.
We have had a good recent run with our early season noted horses and Kachess is the latest. Much better than recent efforts suggest.
Having her first start in a handicap and expected to go well at double figure odds. Currently around 10/1 having been twice that price first thing this morning.
If you want a free copy of my noted horses shortlist, just go to the website: www.slh.co.uk
4.30 Haydock
Parliamentarian has solid form and is progressive.
Parliamentarian winning at Hamilton
Deserves to be at short odds. 6/4 on my provisional tissue, most of the books are 11/10 – 5/4
2.20 Worcester
Kerisper and Minella Daddy are ex Irish Pointers who have solid hurdles form and are worth a close look on their chasing debuts.
Kerisper
Southfield Vic could be vulnerable carrying a penalty.
On my private tissue, I go:
Southfield Vic 7/4
Minella Daddy 9/4
Kerisper 9/4
Good week for us with two winners from two bets only. Got a great deal from the Perth two-dayer which will be of value in the opening stages of the main jumps campaign. Special terms are currently available, see the website for full details.
Plenty of non-runners at Newbury, many deterred by the soft ground after the midweek ‘monsoon.’ At Ayr the going is Good to Soft and light rain is forecast this afternoon.
One race from each for us today.
1.45 Newbury Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes (Group 3)
Formerly known as the Arc trial, this 1m 3f race attracts five runners.
Hardwicke stakes winner Dartmouth is better than latest run suggests and sets the form standard. He is expected to handle today’s conditions.
Algometer is an early season noted horse returning from a break after running in the Derby. Ground conditions will suit and he can progress.
Robin Of Navan returned to form on latest start in a high class All Weather race at Kempton.
I price the five runners as follows:
Dartmouth 13/8
Algometer 7/2
Robin Of Navan 7/2
Ayrad 9/1
Tashaar 12/1
Dartmouth
2.00 Ayr William Hill Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group 3)
6f sprint for 2 y.o.’s with the winner collecting over £36,000.
Bletchley will be suited by conditions and is expected to return to the form which saw her finish 2nd in the Albany at Royal Ascot.
Drumfad Bay may find this trip too short.
Partitia is progressive, comes here looking for a hat-trick of victories.
Bletchley is a best priced 3/1, which is in line with my thinking.
Bletchley (near side)
As we saw yesterday with Clem Fandango, my early season noted horses shortlist is picking up winners. For a free copy and an information pack, go to: www.slh.co.uk
September and October are transitional months. On the flat we have plenty of big handicaps, late season juveniles, exposed types and those who haven’t yet given their true form. The flat winds down and the main jumps season is just starting to emerge. It is a mixture that is best picked through selectively. Too many get their fingers burnt at this time of year chasing so called ‘inside information.’
Two races to briefly look at today. Like most of this week, there is a lack of quality and value.
3.40 Ayr
Clem Fandango is a noted horse who has been running consistently well.
Today’s conditions will suit and is expected to go close. I tentatively go 3/1.
Clem Fandango
3.30 Newton Abbot
A difficult race to be confident about, but for various reasons I have reservations concerning the market leaders.
Generous Chief isn’t an easy ride, but I provisionally have him as my 5/1 favourite in an open race.
2016/17 Jumps Campaign
Next week sees the midweek two-dayer at Perth. The first signs of the better class jumpers coming onto the course for the seven month season ahead. Go to: www.slh.co.uk for the latest membership terms and your free information pack.
Further increase in profits this week with a good 9/2 winner.
Back for two races at Doncaster today including the Leger and then over to Leopardstown for the Irish Champion Stakes. After the strong winds yesterday at Doncaster the forecast is more benign. However there is there a possibility of rain and the clerk of the course has not ruled out the possibility of the ground easing from the current good conditions.
At Leopardstown the going is on the softer side of Good.
2.00 Doncaster Champagne Stakes (Group 2)
Six to post for this 7f event for the 2y.o. boys.
Thunder Snow sets the form standard on his second in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood.
He looks sure to go close, although the Saeed bin Suroor stable remain relatively quiet and that is a cause for concern.
Rivet impressed when winning at York. Rivet looks sure to step up significantly on that bare form and is in the ‘could be anything’ category. Partnered by Andrea Atzeni; the young Italian has already ridden five winners at this meeting so far.
2/1 joint favs on my provisional tissue.
Rivet
3.45 Doncaster St Leger Stakes (Group 1)
A.P. O’Brien has three of the nine entered here. His Great Voltigeur winner Idaho being the strong market leader.
With the heavy rain having missed Doncaster Idaho deserves to be at short odds. He sets a high standard with the prospect of further improvement on this step up to 14f.
Muntahaa is progressing with racing but faces a very tough task in improving past Idaho.
The market has it about right. I go:
Idaho 4/5
Muntahaa 5/1
10/1 bar
Idaho
6.45 Leopardstown Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1)
Here we have the Oaks winner taking on the Derby winner.
I favour Minding to come out on top against the highest class opposition.
Harzand may find the drop back to 10f a problem, the Arc being his target.
I price them as follows:
Minding 5/2
Harzand 7/2
10/1 bar
Minding
It is a day of high quality where the layers have had ample time to get their markets right for the main contenders. An angle in may be a change in the conditions at Doncaster and a sharp weather eye is advised.
We head to Doncaster for two races this afternoon. The going is Good and a dry sunny day is forecast. I will be firming up my prices a little later once I have spoken to a number of contacts at the course.
1.55: The opening race is a Group 3 confined to fillies and mares.
With Lumiere having disappointed on latest start and Same Jurisdiction having her first start since arriving from South Africa, this is a difficult race to price with total confidence.
However Nemoralia was impressive at York. She sets a high standard and deserves to be at short odds.
With various doubts concerning the others runners Spangled can figure at big odds. Currently available at 16/1 with quite a few firms.
I provisionally price as follows:
Nemoralia evens
Lumiere 9/2
Spangled 8/1
Nemorilia
2.30: A 5f Group 2 with local trainer Mark Johnston holding two strong entries with The Last Lion and Yalta.
What to make of Yalta is the big question here. His impressive win in the Molecomb at Goodwood two starts ago would make him difficult to beat here.
However he finished last at York on his latest start, being beaten before half way.
Excuses concerning the draw and a more competitive race have been put forward for that York reverse. To my eye it looked a possible physical issue. A return to that Goodwood form would set a good standard.
For me, Tis Marvellous and Afandem are the dangers in this highly competitive sprint.
I presently make Yalta, Tis Marvellous and Afandem 4/1 co favs.
Yalta
Another very good week in the making with three winners from four bets only so far this week. Special terms for the 2016/17 main jumps campaign are now available. They include a discount on standard rates plus the remainder of this month free. See the website for full details of membership opportunities and to get your free information pack: www.slh.co.uk
The arrival time of the bands of rain sweeping across the country will be an added factor this afternoon. Ascot should get a relatively clear run before arrival but Haydock is already seeing the first wave.
Richest race on the card with £100,000 in prize money for the twelve declared to contest.
Stargazer was noted on latest start at Goodwood over 10f. He stayed on well after having to race wide on the track. Steps up to 12f today which is expected to bring further improvement.
Although there are a few other possible improvers in the opposition, I would be surprised if Stargazer doesn’t go very close. On my provisional tissue below I have him the same as the general price on offer. Not value enough for me in a competitive handicap:
Stargazer 5/2
Dal Harraild 11/2
10/1 bar
Stargazer leads the way
4.30 Haydock 32Red Sprint Cup Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1)
As things stand by the time we get to this race, Haydock will have been at the centre of the rainband as it passes east. Haydock does not drain as easily as many other courses. Until we see the extent and depth of the heavy rain forecast it is not possible to accurately price this race. Also we could lose the favourite should the conditions be too soft.
Looking at a few of the contenders and their preferred conditions:
Limato’s prospects depend on the ground staying good – softer ground will lessen his chance. For me the 9/4 favourite on good and a drifter on a slower surface.
Quiet Reflection will be suited by easing ground, and must go very close.
Donjuan Triumphant is expected to go well at double figure odds if the forecast rains arrive.
Donjuan Triumphant
Provisionally pricing on good to soft – soft ground, I go: Quiet Refection 5/1, Donjuan Triumphant 14/1.
Professional backer – Horse Racing Advisory Service
