All posts by Steve Lewis Hamilton

An Ethel win?

July 22, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Meetings from three of the Grade 1 tracks today with Ascot this afternoon plus Newmarket and York this evening.

We are going to look at two afternoon races away from the higher profile venues.

Uttoxeter 1.40: Ethelwyn has yet to see the winners enclosure in her eleven career starts. For me, she is risky at short odds.

Two outings this season and on both occasions narrowly beaten. Has the ability to win, but finds little for pressure.

Angel Face has a similar level of form at her best and gets the experience of Tom O’Brien in the saddle for the first time today. His last ride at this course saw him cajole an unlikely victory.

This looks more open than the betting suggests as a couple of others can’t be dismissed.

I price the market leaderrs as follows:

Ethelwyn 2/1

Angel Face 7/2

Middleton’s Minx 4/1

Miss Mobot 8/1

Book At Bedtime 10/1

Ethelwyn_BlackIvory-_9859 — Ethelwyn leading Black Ivory on the gallops.

Thirsk 3.40: Good to Firm ground here, which has been watered.

Glitter Girl and Starlight Romance head the market in this maiden fillies stakes for 2 y.o.’s. Both will be suited by this step up to 7f.

Glitter Girl showed plenty of ability on debut over 6f, staying on well after being slightly outpaced.

Starlight Romance was noted on debut over 6f at York and run a similar race on her second start over the same c/d-outpaced before staying on. She looks to be crying out for 7f and further.

My early tissue has Glitter Girl in at 7/4 with Starlight Romance slightly shorter at 9/4 than the general odds on offer.

We currently have a special membership for Glorious Goodwood. You can start today, membership begins at just £20. For a full range of options and immediate subscription go to: http://slh.co.uk/index.php/glorious-goodwood-special-16

horse racing

Value is the key

July 16, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Seven race fixtures across Britain today plus the Irish Oaks meeting at the Curragh. Channel 4 have a good mix of flat and jumps from their eight scheduled races. We are going to look at two races this afternoon.

3.00 Newbury bet365 Stakes (Registered As The Steventon Stakes) (Listed Race)

With Retrieve now a non-runner, seven declared for the £37,000 prize money on offer. The fast ground has been watered and we have some rain forecast.

There are various doubts concerning all runners. None come into this with a victory on their last run.

Scottish is the most appealing having run a satisfactory race on his reappearance for his new stable. The form of last season’s win at Ayr is solid and today’s conditions will suit.

Gm Hopkins is an old favourite of ours from last season and like Mokarris yesterday can be forgiven a poor outing at Royal ascot in unsuitable conditions.

Third in we have Master Carpenter ridden by the in-form Frederick Tylicki. Seven rides in the past two days have brought three winners and four seconds.

My provisional tissue pending a course report from one of my senior contacts:

Scottish 6/4

GM Hopkins 11/2

Master Carpenter 8/1

Spark Plug 8/1

10/1 bar

The books are shorter than me with the favourite and I would expect the market to ease off once we get nearer to post time.

4.30 Market Rasen Betfred “Supports Jack Berry House” Novices´ Handicap Chase (CLASS 3)

Good ground that has been watered and showers expected.

A wide open race with a couple at big prices worth a close look.

Both Fort Worth and Cusheen Bridge are potentially fairly handicapped on form shown over hurdles. They have shown plenty of ability in novice chases and are fairly priced going into a handicap chase for the first time.

Market-Rasen-Racecourse — Market Rasen racecourse

At the 16/1 and 20/1 on offer for both horses I would be looking to get some value out of this.

The books are betting at a general 124% which reflects the open nature of the race. It may be worth looking at the exchanges should the head of the market start contracting.

As ever in true professional backing, value is the key.

horse racing

Stoute vs Gosden

July 15, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

After a lot of low grade racing so far this week, we have some quality to go at from Newbury plus an interesting maiden at Nottingham.

Good ground at most of the tracks today with the exception being Haydock who report soft ground with rain forecast.

Two races to look at.

Newbury 3.40: A 2 y.o. listed race with the favourite Mokarris of interest.

Impressed on debut at Haydock before disappointing in the Coventry at Royal Ascot on soft ground. With so many at Royal Ascot, the form in unsuitable conditions can be forgiven. I would expect a return to form on today’s faster ground.

I have put Mokarris in at 3/1 on my provisional tissue. The bookmakers are taking no chances and go as low as 6/4. Would expect some ease in price once the market gets more fluidity.

Nottingham 4.05: The market is dominated by To Eternity and Honorina.

To Eternity was noted on debut when just failing to overturn the odds-on favourite at Doncaster. It was a victory for Michael Stoute on that occasion and the Gosden filly has another Stoute 3 y.o. to overcome today in the shape of Honorina.

Honorina has been off the course for eleven months after her two decent runs as a 2 y.o.

It looks an interesting battle between the pair.

Mehmas – one from the free noted horses shortlist

Three bets for us so far this week, with two successful. There are special terms now available and you can get my free information pack. The pack also includes my noted horses. The latest winner from the shortlist being Mehmas who won well at the Newmarket July meeting last week.

For more details, visit my website.

Back tomorrow morning as we have a good mix of flat and jumps to look at.

horse racing, Uncategorized

Newmarket boss?

July 9, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Tremendous day of racing ahead with Channel 4 screening ten races. Two from Ascot and four from both Newmarket and York. We are going to look at one race each from the latter. At both courses the going is Good to Firm.

It is an ultra-competitive day with plenty of prize money on offer. The percentage mark up in many races leaves little scope for value, especially each way in the big handicaps. If you are looking at any of the bigger priced horses, the exchanges should be consulted.

3.40 York John Smith´s Silver Cup Stakes (Listed Race)

Quest For More looked to have a solid chance on quick ground. However rain is forecast and any easing of the ground is a worry. Just the one outing this season when runner up at this course/distance. The stable are keen to get a run into him and with Goodwood being on his priority list this could be a prep if conditions turn against him. The current 11/4 looks risky given the doubts.

Seamour appeared the winner of the Northumberland Plate before being run down close home. Ground conditions aren’t an issue although drop back in trip could be. I still expect him to be in the ‘shake up.’

With uncertainty regarding the ground at present, I am not going to finalise my prices until I get a course report later and have watched the opening races.

Seamour would be my preference at this stage

5.10 Newmarket bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2)

Bossy Guest caught the eye in the Hunt Cup at Ascot, finishing the race strongly. He is handicapped to go close. He does tend to linger at the stalls however and this has become an issue. The yard are keen for him to replicate his good form at home into a strong racecourse performance.

Conditions are suitable and if breaking on terms I would expect a big run in a wide open race. Currently around 14/1 which is in keeping with my provisional pricing.

Good day for us yesterday as we were well ahead of the gamble on Alice Springs. 6/1 early turned into a winning 5/2 S.P. For more details about the service go to my website: www.slh.co.uk

horse racing

Ladies Day

July 8, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Unlike many of the high profile meetings over recent weeks. Newmarket today will be run on ground more fitting to the time of year.

We have Good to Firm going and some watering has taken place. A warm dry afternoon is forecast.

Two races for us today from Newmarket.

3.45: The market is tight around Bletchley and Nasimi. They are the two I would like to focus upon. Two races only for Bletchley, a big odds win on debut at Nottingham which earned her a trip to Royal Ascot. She showed her inexperience in the Albany before staying on well for a close run second. That form sets the standard.

Nasimi has race just once, a very eye catching debut at Haydock. She did most things wrong, but still powered home for an easy win. Significant improvement can be expected.

On my tissue I make Bletchley 3/1 favourite with Nasimi in at 4/1.

Bletchley (near) — Bletchley (near side) at Royal Ascot

4.15: Usherette is a warm order with a general quote of 4/6 and 8/11. Although a handful of firms want to take her on. How much they will actually lay is questionable.

She is unbeaten in all four starts this year. Impressed on latest start when winning comfortably at Royal Ascot on soft ground. She sets the recent form standard.

When Alice Springs ran on the Friday, the ground had improved but her luck in running definitely had not. My view is that given a clear run she would have won that day.

She was very impressive in her final 2 y.o. race at this course and has plenty of improvement to come. I expect Ryan Moore to keep her out of trouble this time.

I have Usherette in at Evens and Alice Springs at 4/1.

A lot is being made of the Royal Ascot form, but the huge difference in conditions at that meeting and what we will get today has to be factored in.

Good start for us at Newmarket yesterday. Four races analysed, two winners at 3/1 and 11/4, plus my reservations regarding The Grey Gatsby were confirmed as the 11/4 favourite never seriously challenged the winner.

Back tomorrow for the final day at the Newmarket July meeting.

horse racing

Eclipse tester

July 2, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Yet again the ground is the major talking point as we look at Sandown and Haydock today. At Sandown the going has eased slightly to a general Good to Soft. Clerk of the course Andrew Cooper reported: “I could show you some good ground out there but taking all things into account after a little bit of rain yesterday evening and having moved onto fresh ground I am just going to call it good to soft.” A dry fairly warm day is forecast.

In contrast the ground at Haydock has deteriorated to Soft (Heavy in places) and light showers are expected this afternoon.

As covered yesterday, the uncertainty over racing conditions between entry and raceday is a nagging problem for connections. There are plenty more non-runners today.

3.45 Sandown Coral-Eclipse (Group 1)

£525,000 in total prize money with just on £300,000 to the winner. We have seven to post with the O’Brien and Charlton yards both having likely pacemakers for The Gurkha and Time Test respectively.

Time Test and My Dream Boat are closely matched on a strict line through Western Hymn.

Time Test is a previously noted horse who I expect to go close today.

However The Gurkha was staying on strongly at the finish of the St James Palace at Ascot and the step up in trip is expected to bring further improvement.

Compared to the general odds on offer, I have the market leaders closer together on my tissue:

The Gurkha 11/10

Time Test 3/1

My Dream Boat 5/1

Hawkbill 14/1

Western Hymn 20/1

2.50 Haydock bet365 Old Newton Cup (CLASS 2)

There are a few hold-up horses amongst the market leaders. In testing conditions it is a dangerous game to try and rapidly make up ground as the line approaches.

Penglai Pavilion is worth a look in this wide open handicap. Always behind at Ascot on latest start and never placed to challenge. His form over hurdles last season suggests he retains plenty of ability and he can figure today. Ground conditions shouldn’t be an issue.

Some 14/1 still around which would offer a bit of value.

We currently have special membership terms for the rest of the summer and the year. More details about the service on my website.

horse racing

Bobby, Jackie and Roger?

July 1, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Great disparity in going across the country today. Down in Devon Newton Abbot report Good to Firm whilst towards the South East Sandown is Good to Soft.

Travel to the three northern meetings and we have soft ground at both Haydock and Doncaster. Whereas Beverly, just an hour from Doncaster, race on Good ground.

The past few weeks have been a guessing game for connections as to which conditions their horses will face on the day. Goes a long way to explaining the large number of horses already pulled out today.

We are going to quickly look at two races.

Sandown 4.00: What About Carlo is already a non-runner, leaving five to post in this valuable listed race. Roger Charlton sent Ayrad to Chantilly for a competitive Group 2 for his last outing. Showed up well and weakened in the latter stages on soft ground. Drops back to 2f today. Has shown he can handle the conditions. Cheek pieces fitted for the first time.

For me, there are doubts concerning trip and ground with main market rivals Spark Plug and Gm Hopkins.

I put Ayrad in at 7/4 on my private tissue.

Ayrad (left) locked in a three way fight to the line

Newton Abbot 3.45: Tricky handicap with a case to be made for a few here. On a point of value, Listen and Learn looks overpriced at the 14/1 on offer in places. Richard Johnson takes the ride on O’Neill’s only runner today. Worth watching the market.

Back tomorrow when Channel 4 concentrate on seven races from Haydock and Sandown including the Lancashire Oaks and the Eclipse.

horse racing

Derby double?

June 25, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Two races for us this afternoon as we go to Newmarket and the Curragh for the Irish Derby. The going on the July course at Newmarket is soft and there are already plenty of non-runners. Light rain is forecast during racing. At the Curragh it is Good to Yielding.

3.55 Newmarket John Sunley Memorial Criterion Stakes (Group 3)

Two weeks ago at York we concentrated on Mutakayyef and Muwaary in the Ganton Stakes. They finished first and third respectively.

Muwaary was noted on his return after almost two years off and looks sure to go well.

His temperament could be an issue, as he got himself “excited” during the prelims at York.

So Beloved ties in with the consistent Breton Rock. Little to choose between them as they finished with just under a length apart at Haydock last time.

I marginally prefer Breton Rock, with the soft ground not a problem.

My provisional pricing is:

Breton Rock 7/2

So Beloved 4/1

Muwaary 9/2

8/1 Bar

5.20 Curragh Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1)

Six of these run in the Epsom Derby and I would be very surprised if today’s winner doesn’t come from the two that finished 1st and 3rd. Namely Harzand and Idaho.

Unfortunately that is reflected in the market.

There is an argument that on today’s quicker ground on a flatter track Idaho has a realistic chance of turning Epsom form around with Harzand. Added to this the niggling problems that Harzand has encountered in preparation. But he had problems before Epsom and won going away.

AP O’Brien has three of the nine declared in this, all connected to the Magnier/Tabor ownership. Along with Idaho we have Shogun who struggled in the Epsom Derby and Claudio Monteverdi. It could prove a tactical battle.

If Harzand is the same horse he was at Epsom he will win. But I wouldn’t want to be taking the current odds-on about him.

My tissue:

Harzand 1/1

Idaho 9/4

Red Verdon 10/1

16/1 bar

horse racing

How’s Your Luck?

June 24, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Such is the nature of fixture planning these days that we have a meeting at Cartmel this afternoon, nothing tomorrow and then resume on Sunday.

A quick look at two races from Cartmel.

3.35: Shady Glen beat Wiffy Chatsby last Sunday at Worcester in a scruffy race.

Sean Bowen on Wiffy Chatsby lost an iron and had to kick the other out. Despite all efforts the impediment cost any chance.

Should Shady Glen put up a good run Wiffy Chatsby’s chances would be boosted when he runs in the following race.

4.40: Good of Luck put up a strong showing when winning on the flat at Newbury earlier this month. At the current double figure odds, he looks overpriced in this competitive hurdle.

Whilst the going is declared as good at Cartmel there is a chance of rain at the track later today.

The other meetings will all have varying degrees of soft ground to contend with. Both the meetings at Newmarket and Yarmouth are prone to non-runners as connections decide to wait for better ground.

Back tomorrow as Newcastle and Newmarket are the headliners, plus it is Derby day in Ireland.

horse racing

Tin to strike gold?

June 18, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Final day of Royal Ascot and as it has been all week, the going is the primary factor for many. Clerk of the course Chris Stickels said this morning, “It is good to soft here and we’ve been dry since a little bit of rain on Friday night. We may see a further change to the going on the straight course later to reflect the drying conditions.”

We are looking at two races today.

3.05 Ascot Wolferton Handicap (Listed Race)

Maleficent Queen is progressive and is expected to figure in a wide open affair. Comes here on a winning run of five, including both her starts this season. Both victories achieved on Good to Soft.

The market is headed by another 4y.o. – the Godolphin owned Best Of Times. Currently priced at around 4/1 with Maleficent Queen second best at 8/1.

4.20 Ascot Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1)

Just the nine to post, but a truly global challenge with entries from Australia, America, France and Hong Kong contesting for the £600,000 prize money. My preference is for the Newmarket trained, The Tin Man. Just one outing this season when smartly winning a good quality race at Windsor last month.

The Tin Man is a highly progressive horse, with conditions to suit and winning form at the track.

I go 3/1 on my private tissue whilst the books are a general 7/2 – 4/1. It is very tight at the head of the market.

Fantastic afternoon of racing and I hope you have a good day.

Professional backer – Horse Racing Advisory Service