All posts by Steve Lewis Hamilton

horse racing

Derby day

Looking at the Derby today. The going at Epsom is Good and the course has been watered.

With total prize money standing at £1.625 million for the 19 declared, the 2017 Derby will be the richest race ever run in Britain.

The winner collects  £921,000.

4.30 Epsom 1m4f Investec Derby (Group 1) 3y.o. Entire Colts & Fillies

Cracksman and Cliffs Of Moher are the two contenders that could show significant improvement.

Their form ties together through Bay Of Poets, who was placed behind both horses on their latest starts. The pair are both around the 5/1 mark in the early betting.

Of the bigger priced runners, Best Solution is expected to go well, having won Lingfield’s Derby Trial. Currently a general 14/1.

My marginal preference is for Cliffs Of Moher.

After the disappointment with Rhododendron in the Oaks yesterday, Aidan O’Brien will be keen to bounce back with another classic winner.

Cliffs Of Moher

Around the country the going is on the firm side of good, with the exception of Doncaster who report soft ground after plenty of rainfall. Already quite a number of non-runners at the Yorkshire track due to unsuitable ground.

 

horse racing

Journey to progress again?

Going to look at the Coronation Cup and the Oaks. With both races there are plenty of unknown factors to weigh up, which makes accurate pricing even more difficult.

The going at Epsom is Good and a warm cloudy day is forecast.

Epsom 3.10 1m4f  Investec Coronation Cup (Group 1) (4yo+)

Highland Reel sets the standard if at his best. He was well below form on his latest start in Dubai in unsuitable conditions.

Journey progressed throughout last season, putting up her best performance at Ascot on her final start in October. Today is her seasonal debut. She could be the one to take advantage if Highland Reel is below par.

I provisionally go:

Highland Reel 9/4

Journey 7/2

Journey

Epsom 4.30 1m4f  Investec Oaks (Group 1) (3yo)

 

Enable stayed on well to win at Chester and is expected to go close.

However there’s a chance that Rhododendron could be a higher class filly and can continue Aidan O’Brien’s excellent record in this race.

She ran an excellent second in the 1000 Guineas behind subsequent Irish Guineas winner Winter.

I provisionally go:

Rhododendron  1/1

Enable   5/1

Rhododendron

Looking to build upon a good start to the week with two winners from our only three bets plus the additional race analysis for members own use has been extremely accurate providing more selective  winners.

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horse racing

Northern thunder

A good quality day with seven meetings across Britain and Ireland. We are going to focus on the north-west with a race from both Haydock and Cartmel. The going at Haydock is Firm and Good at Cartmel. Both courses have been watered.

One of the big factors at both courses this afternoon are the thunderstorms forecast to hit the region around the time of the opening races. It is hard to predict what effect any sudden intense rainfall will have on already dry ground and whether there will be safety concerns.

3.30 Haydock

6f Group 2 sprint worth over £50,000 to the winner.

Harry Angel is far from straightforward and has proved difficult in the stalls. Can pull hard during the race. However he possesses a great deal of natural ability.

The form of his latest second at Ascot sets a high standard, a reproduction of which will make him very difficult to beat.

If he does regress from that run, Second Thought could take advantage.

I provisionally go:

Harry Angel  4/5

Second Thought  5/1

Harry Angel

5.05 Cartmel

As ever, there will be a large bank holiday crowd at this unique track.

There are various doubts concerning all five runners.

Fantasy King had a ‘blow out’ on the flat a couple of weeks ago and figures on a favourable handicap mark.

He can prove best of James Moffatt’s 3 runners.

3/1 favourite on my provisional tissue, which is in line with the early prices on offer.

Fantasy King

 

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horse racing

Goodwood Glorious

A busy Friday with six meetings in Britain plus two in Ireland. We go to Goodwood for two races. The going is on the firm side of Good and the track has been watered. A very sunny day is in store for race-goers with temperatures in the mid 20’s.

 3.10 Goodwood

1 mile handicap for fillies with several unexposed types from the leading yards.

Panova could be on a fair handicap mark and is expected to go well in what should prove to be an informative race. Oisin Murphy takes the ride for the first time.

With so many unknowns a difficult race to price with confidence.

At a general 4/1 and 9/2 in places I would keep Panova onside if getting involved.

 

Goodwood3.45 Goodwood

Premier race on the card today. A 1m 3f listed event worth over £22,000 to the winner.

Raheen House sets a decent standard on form achieved. Should come on from his seasonal debut when second at Newbury last month.

All five opponents are possible improvers.

I have Raheen House 2/1 on my provisional tissue.

 

Raheen House

 Back tomorrow when we have four of the Grade 1 tracks all hosting meetings.

horse racing

It’s raining again….

Four afternoon and two evening meetings on a busy Saturday of racing. We have soft or good to soft ground at all six British courses and with scattered showers forecast across the country this afternoon, the ground can only get softer where they land. It does make accurate pricing more difficult.

We are going to briefly touch on three races today. We start at Newbury who are expected to get rain throughout the day and then one race at Bangor where it has rained heavily this morning. I will be getting course reports from both prior to racing commencement.

1.50 Newbury

For various reasons there are question marks against all six runners.

Waiting on some late info as this could be a race to play in.

5.10 Newbury

El Hayem was noted at Chester last week when second after a troubled run

Further improvement to come, there is just a doubt concerning the ground.

El Hayem (red cap)

4.50 Bangor

Desert Sting remains on a fair handicap mark.

Softer ground isn’t a problem. 2/1 my tissue.

Desert Sting (right)

Yesterday proved a good day for the blog with 5/1 winner Tomyris at York. Get your free information pack at: www.slh.co.uk

horse racing

Tomyris noted

Ground conditions are making for limited opportunities on the flat. What should have been an informative York meeting has been negated by the soft going. There were 20 non-runners there yesterday, most down to unsuitable ground.

I am going to briefly look at two races this afternoon at York and continue working on the more appealing Aintree card this evening.

 York 2.55

Tomyris was noted after impressing on reappearance. Ground is an unknown factor which makes pricing difficult. Currently a best priced 6/1 with a few of the books.

 

 

Tomyris

York 4.05

Fidaawy is a non-runner leaving eight at present.

Southdown Lad is potentially on a good handicap mark and will be suited by conditions. He is expected to go well. 11/2+ looks fair.

 

Southdown LadBack tomorrow for the six meetings on offer, including the Newbury Lockinge card.

horse racing

10/1 Taurean on the upgrade

Seven meetings today across Britain plus the Curragh in Ireland. We are going to look at two races from Ascot. The going there is Good to Firm and the course has been watered.

 2.15 Ascot

 Four non-runners leaving seven to post to contest the £9,700 first prize.

Appeared is one of my noted horses from last season.

Has been gelded and is expected to go well on seasonal re-appearance.

Difficult race to price accurately. The books generally have him in at around 10/3 which is taking no chances.

 

Appeared

4.00 Ascot

 After travelling smoothly Fastnet Tempest looked sure to win on latest start in Newbury’s Spring Mile. However he hung and found little – maybe this drop to 7f will suit.

At around 10/1 I prefer the chance of Taurean Star.

He won with something to spare at Yarmouth and looks on the upgrade.

 

Taurean Star (left)


Just the one race for us yesterday and it brought a dramatic finish as the gambled on Western Hymn claimed victory for us on the line. Discover more about my work by applying for your free information pack at: www.slh.co.uk

horse racing

Best Western

One race for us to focus on today – The Group 3 Ormonde Stakes at Chester. The going at the Roodee is Good to Firm with a possibility of showers.

 3.35 Chester

 More questions than answers as there are doubts concerning all of these. A race in which some running plans for Royal Ascot will be either confirmed or sent back to the ‘drawing board’.

 Midterm is a noted horse from last season. A visor is fitted for the first time after disappointing on his reappearance when finishing fifth at Newbury last month. The Stoute team have an outstanding record in this race over the years, so you would expect Midterm to be sharper this time.

 US Army Ranger also performed below par on his return to action at Naas and has something to prove.

 At around 8/1 Western Hymn makes some appeal. He isn’t straightforward but at his best can be given every chance. First time cheek-pieces replace the visor he wore on his latest start. The Gosden stable remain in excellent form.

 

Western Hymn (near side)

 

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horse racing

Churchill challenger

Busy day with six meetings in Britain headed by the classic weekend at Newmarket. Two races for us to study, including the Guineas. Both races are on ITV.

The going at Newmarket is Good to Firm and watering has taken place.

1.50 1m1f (Row) Spring Lodge Stakes (Handicap) Class 2 (3yo+)

We start with the opening race of the meeting which for many years was known as the Suffolk Stakes .

Market looks correct with Ballet Concerto and Next Stage heading the betting.

Both impressed with victories on their seasonal debuts at Doncaster and Newmarket respectively.  Progression to come from both.

I was quite taken by Next Stage, who I wouldn’t want to oppose.

7/2 each my provisional tissue.

Next Stage (Right)

 

3.35 1m (Row) Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes Group 1 (Colts & Fillies) Class 1 (3yo)

A relatively small field compared to recent runnings, with just the ten to post. However, it still looks a top class renewal.

Churchill sets the standard on his 2yo form. Five consecutive wins last year culminating in a dominant display in the Dewhurst.

Barney Boy and Eminent impressed in their respective trials.

The unbeaten Al Wukair put up an eye-taking performance in France on his reappearance and I would keep Andre Fabre’s challenger onside.

My provisional tissue:

Churchill      6/4

Al Wukair     4/1

Barney Boy  5/1

Eminent       6/1

20/1 bar

Al Wukair

Whilst we don’t have an account bet every day, a lot of work still has to be done and this is shared with members. For example, yesterday I analysed three races for my select group of clients which provided two winners at 7/2 and 11/8. As a member of the service you get a truly professional approach that puts the members first.

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horse racing

Crackerjack!

First week of my summer campaign. Throughout the summer I will be concentrating on the higher quality flat and summer jumps. Today’s flat cards are modest and we will be looking at a couple of races at Fontwell this evening. The going is on the firm side of good and the seven race card commences at ‘Crackerjack! Time’ – 5 to 5 for those not old enough to remember the Friday evening kid’s TV show.

 5.55 Fontwell

Work In Progress proved a big disappointment last season. Returns from a break with a tongue-tie fitted for the first time. Features on a fair handicap mark, with conditions ideal.

Doubts concerning all 5 runners – making it a difficult race to price accurately at this stage.

 

Work In Progress

6.25 Fontwell

Harry Hunt sets the recent form standard.

Again there are doubts about all the runners.

7/2+ about Harry Hunt is fair.


Galileo Gold & Frankie Dettori win last year’s 2000-Guineas

 

Great anticipation regarding the Newmarket Guineas meeting this weekend. Back tomorrow morning for a really good day of racing.