All posts by Steve Lewis Hamilton

horse racing

Traffic to halt 4-timer?

Final day of the jumps season and the battle is still on for the champion trainer title in both Britain and Ireland. We concentrate on Sandown today where the Nicholls and Henderson runners will be getting plenty of attention.

The going at Sandown is Good/Good to firm in places and the track has been watered.

2.25 Sandown bet365 Oaksey Chase (Grade 2)

The books look to have the market just  about right.

This is Menorah’s big target as the 12y.o. goes for his fourth win in this race.

Traffic Fluide (with cheek pieces fitted today) sets the recent form standard off his third in the Melling Chase where Josses Hill finished a remote seventh.

However, Josses Hill will be suited by conditions and a return to his earlier season form gives him every chance.

I price as follows:

Menorah      5/2

Traffic Fluide  5/2

Josses Hill    4/1

10/1 bar

Traffic Fluide

 

3.35 Sandown bet365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

Hardly any of the thirteen declared can be completely ruled out for this stamina sapping 3m 5f event.

Scudamore takes over from Fehily, as the latter is unable to do the weight on Doing Fine.

Doing Fine has had a fairly consistent season since moving to the Mulholland yard last October, culminating in a commanding victory at Cheltenham ten days ago.  Escapes a penalty for that win and looks sure to run well.

Difficult to price, but the general 9/2 available looks about fair.

 

Doing Fine

 

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horse racing

Hobsons choice

It has been a good week of racing so far with Perth and Punchestown leading the way. The quality continues today as we add Sandown; where there are sure to be pointers to plenty of future winners.

Just the one race to look at as we go to Perth for the final day  of their Spring Festival meeting. The going remains Good after watering.

3.10 Perth

Various doubts concerning all of the seven declared for this 2m 4f handicap chase.

Definite Outcome is of most interest on first start since leaving the Rebecca Curtis yard to go to Richard Hobson last week. The 8y.o. is potentially fairly handicapped with conditions to suit.

Difficult race to price, but at the 3/1 generally on offer, I would keep him onside.

Definite Outcome (far side) on his way to victory at Aintree

Very profitable week so far with our last three bets all winning. Two of the winners overturned odds-on favourites.

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horse racing

Royale Ayr

We stay at Ayr today for two races including the Scottish Grand National. The going remains Good to Soft/Good in places with the ground slightly drying as the day progresses.

3.20 Ayr 1m7½f Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)

 Tight betting heat with little unanimity between the odds compilers.

Romain De Senam enjoys a weight pull with a few of today’s rivals on recent Aintree form.

Conditions suit and I will be surprised if he doesn’t run close. 6/1 fav my provisional tissue and 7/1 generally with the books.

Paul Nicholls with Romain De Senam

3.55 4m Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5yo+)

30 declared for the final major national of the season following the Aintree and Fairyhouse nationals in recent weeks.

Southfield Royale is expected to run a big race. Although he has shown no form in two starts this season, he was fancied to go close in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham, but fell before half-way.

He is well handicapped on last season’s form, with connections believing he retains all of that ability. Best priced 11/1 this morning, which seems reasonable

Southfield Royale

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horse racing

5/1 the field

Opening day of the Scottish Grand National meeting at Ayr today. The going is Good to Soft and Good in places. Showers are forecast for the early afternoon with a drying wind throughout the day.

We are going to briefly look at one race:

 2.40 Ayr

 A wide open 2m Class 3 handicap hurdle in which Azzuri looks to be a vulnerable favourite as he makes his handicapping debut.

Although ‘thrown-in’ on last season’s form, he has run way below that level in three starts this season. The latest run saw him well held by the winner in a fairly modest novice hurdle at Wincanton.

Outsider of the field with some books is Captain Brown at around 9/1. He was 3rd in this race last year and is expected to go well running off the same mark.

Nothing can be completely ruled out. I go 5/1 the field.

 

Ayr racecourse

 

I have recently spent some time in readiness for the forthcoming summer campaign. Always good to meet up with contacts and see their preparations first hand. Get your free info pack and qualify for special summer rates at: www.slh.co.uk

horse racing

33 Musketeers?

It’s going to be a warm day at Aintree with the temperature predicted to reach around 20 degrees Celsius (68F). The going remains Good and the course has been lightly watered overnight.

Two races analysed:

2.25 Aintree 2m4f Betway Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo+)

As with the Melling Chase yesterday, I price this somewhat differently to the early books.

Messire Des Obeaux sets the form standard off his third place effort in the opening race at  the Cheltenham Festival. Conditions are suitable.

Brio Conti continues to progress. Comes here after successive victories at Kempton and Doncaster.

Unbeaten in all four career starts the morning favourite is Finian’s Oscar. His most solid piece of form is his win at Hereford three starts ago last December.

My tissue:

Messire Des Obeaux  4/1

Brio Conti  9/2

Finians’s  Oscar 9/2

10/1 bar

Messire Des Obeaux
Messire Des Obeaux on his way to landing the Betfred Challow Novices’ Hurdle at Newbury

4.20 Aintree 3m½f (3m149y) Ryanair Stayers Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo+)

 

A difficult race to evaluate with queries about all twelve contenders.

Yanworth was disappointing in the Champion Hurdle and has to prove he stays.

Cole Harden will have conditions to suit, but the cheek-pieces and tongue tie are replaced with a visor.

Supasundae stayed on well to win the Coral Cup at Cheltenham and steps up to 3 miles for the first time.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see a bigger priced winner. Three Musketeers can go well at big odds. Currently 33/1 generally.

4/1 the field my provisional tissue.

Three Musketeers

Good day for us yesterday with a strong bet on 4/1 winner Fox Norton. We have special summer memberships now available that include the rest of this month free. See: http://www.slh.co.uk/summer-special/

horse racing

Fox to sink Sub?

Two races for us today at Aintree. The going is Good and a dry day with light cloud is forecast.

As with all the big meetings it is worth searching through the special offers. For example some are going quarter odds on the Melling Chase if you fancy one of the longer odds runners.

3.25 Aintree 2m4f (2m3f200y) (Mildmay) JLT Melling Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Sub Lieutenant stayed on well in the Ryanair, however I do have doubts concerning that form.

A few of these finished behind Fox Norton in the Queen Mother and although he has to prove he stays, I do expect Fox Norton to confirm that form.

My provisional tissue:

Fox Norton         7/2

God’s Own          5/1

Sub Lieutenant   5/1

10/1 bar

Fox Norton

4.40 Aintree 3m½f (3m149y) Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo+)

A back to form West Approach would set the standard.

He weakened quickly from two out in the Stayers Hurdle after travelling well. A tongue tie is fitted today.

The Worlds End held every chance when taking a heavy fall two out in the Albert Bartlett.

Constantine Bay was hampered by that fall and can improve.

I price the front of market as follows:

The World End    3/1

West Approach   11/2

Constantine Bay  8/1

10/1 bar

West Approach

Back tomorrow morning for National day.

horse racing

A saint and a lord…

Today we have the first day of the flat and two relatively modest jump cards as we approach the Aintree meeting next week. We are going to quickly look at two races from Uttoxeter. The going is Good to Soft, sunny spells and showers are forecast.

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3.05 Uttoxeter

2m 4f handicap hurdle and with a few exceptions most of the thirteen runners have been on the go all season.

Saint Cajetan is fairly handicapped in an open race. Drying ground is in his favour, with his 2nd at Wetherby back in October looking a solid piece of form. Brian Hughes is booked, which can only be a plus.

Silverhow and Land League are unexposed and may improve.

Difficult to price, but I have provisionally put Saint Cajetan in as my 5/1 favourite, 9/1 best with plenty of the books this morning.

Saint Cajetan

4.50 Uttoxeter

Lord Bryan expected to figure after putting up an improved performance on latest start.

4/1 my provisional tissue, which is roughly the current price on offer.

Lord Bryan

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horse racing

Tightly knit

Seven races this afternoon at Wetherby, the first five are all Class 4 events and the final two are classed at 6 and 5 respectively. A marginally better overall standard than the other turf meeting at Fontwell.

The going is Good to Soft at Wetherby where we look at two races containing quite a few handicap chasers who will be familiar to many.

2.50 Wetherby

Negatives concerning all five runners in this tightly knit race, where nothing can be ruled out.

I provisionally price them as follows:

Gin Cobbler 11/4

Roxyfet  11/4

Ever So Much 5/1

Chestnut Ben 5/1

Akula 11/2

 

Roxyfet

3.50 Wetherby

Swing Hard comes into this race in form after a gutsy victory at this track ten days ago. Expect a positive ride.

Attimo is weighted to reverse earlier form with Swing Hard, but broke blood vessels on latest start.

Volt Face latest Towcester form is suspect.

Treat Yourself is well handicapped, but found little for pressure on latest start.

My tissue:

Swing Hard  5/2

Treat Yourself 3/1

Attimo 7/2

Volt Face  7/1

14/1 bar

 

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horse racing

Marginal value

We stay at Newbury for the second day of the meeting. The going is Good to Soft (Good in places) and another bright spring day is forecast.

Newbury 2.25

Wide open race in which the veteran Ericht has his ideal conditions.

The 11y.o. looked the winner going to the last at Doncaster on latest start, before weakening on the run-in and just being caught.

That was over 3 miles and this 4f drop in trip will suit him. Currently a general 10/1 which looks about right.

 

Ericht

Newbury 4.10

Just the five remain for this 2m novice hurdle.

Top weighted Sir Antony Browne may find conditions on the sharp side.

Most Celebrated found little for pressure on latest start over today’s c&d.

Adrrastos form is suspect.

Beach Bar is a useful flat horses making hurdles debut.

Whin Park needs to improve.

At the prices Most Celebrated is the marginal value at the 2/1 on offer. I go:

Sir Antony Browne  13/8

Most Celebrated  13/8

Adrrastos  6/1

Beach Bar 12/1

Whin Park  33/1

 

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