Start of a fairly decent two-dayer at Newbury. The going is Good to Soft and racegoers can expect a pleasant spring afternoon. One race for us to untangle:
2.30 Newbury
Howlongisafoot won unchallenged at Stratford last week by an eased down 28 lengths. However he beat out of form opposition there and this race looks much stronger.
There is no doubting that the Chris Gordon yard is in good form with eight winners from the last twelve runners to which Howlongisafoot contributed with that Stratford victory. Clients were on one those eight as part of our three winners from three bets only last weekend.
Private Malone has been a disappointment this season. He has a piece of form from last year which makes him look very well handicapped. Connections will be hoping the first time cheek-pieces bring him back to life.
Midnight Monty is very interesting on his first start for the Tom Lacey yard. Previously with Keith Reveley, he is also a horse that is fairly treated.
Howlongisafoot is a vulnerable favourite, with Midnight Monty being of most interest. Currently the books go 2/1 Howlongisafoot with Midnight Monty in at 5/1. Worth keeping a watch on the market.
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Just the one race for us today at Kempton. The going is Good.
2.05 Kempton
Clic Work is progressive as shown by his two victories at Doncaster and Taunton. Not raced since that Taunton win at the end of January. However, he needs to sharpen up his jumping.
Hollybush Henry isn’t an easy ride though is on a fair mark.
Days Of Heaven is difficult to evaluate with last 2 starts being in the USA. He does have winning form at this course from around this time last year over 2m 4.5f.
I go:
Clic Work 7/4
Hollybush Henry 3/1
Days Of Heaven 4/1
Theatre Flame 11/2
Midtech Valentine 20/1
Clic Work is currently around 5/4 with the books, which looks on the skinny side.
Days Of Heaven
Rock the WorldLooking back to the two races analysed yesterday on this blog. I wanted to be against Native River, who I felt needed to improve and was far too short in the market. I put him in at 10/1 and he finished a creditable third at 7/2.
In the Grand Annual I narrowed it down to three from the twenty four runners. The three all made the frame with Rock The World running out the 10/1 winner.
Rock the World
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Final day of the festival and the going remains on the good side. A cloudy day is forecast and the south-westerly breeze should see the track slightly drying through the day. We start with the Gold Cup, which has had more headlines recently for the non-runners rather than those taking part.
3.30 Cheltenham Gold Cup
Cue Card’s form of last season would give him a great chance today.
However, despite recent successes he has yet to prove he retains that ability.
Djakadam and Outlander have little between them on form in Ireland.
Native River needs to improve and in my view is too short in the market.
It is a race I will be coming back to later for clients once I have had an update from one of my senior contacts. At present I price them as follows:
Cue Card 9/2
Djakadam 9/2
Outlander 9/2
Sizing John 8/1
Native River 10/1
Champagne West 14/1
16/1 bar
Outlander
5.30 Grand Annual
A ‘Mission Impossible’ handicap to finish off the festival.
Last year’s 2nd and 3rd Rock The World and Dandrige are considered.
Nicky Henderson’s Theinval is just preferred. Currently a general 12/1.
Un De Sceaux
A final word on the thrilling exhibition by Un De Sceaux yesterday which crowned an outstanding day for Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh. Many had been premature in casting doubts over the Mullins yard and the early prices on offer for Un De Sceaux were value – which we took full advantage of.
We stay at Sandown for two more races today. The going remains on the good side to soft.
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2.25 Sandown
Wide open handicap, where Shanroe Santos could be a vulnerable favourite.
His jumping was less than fluent at Warwick and although that may improve, the current 11/4 is on the short side.
My provisional tissue:
Shanroe Santos 9/2
Upswing 9/2
Willoughby Hedge 9/2
Masters Hill 11/2
Fourth Act 11/2
14/1 bar
Shanroe Santos
4.45 Sandown
Another trappy handicap to finish the card.
The hood was left off Alcala on latest start, when he was well beaten before falling two out. The headgear returns today but he is a very risky proposition.
Twenty Eight Guns continues to progress and Dance Floor King is running well.
Last year’s winner of this race Morning Reggie has been out of form since.
I price as follows:
Twenty Eight Guns 7/2
Dance Floor 7/2
Alcala 4/1
Gores Island 6/1
Morning Reggie 8/1
Aerlite Supreme 10/1
Each year at Cheltenham Festival time we raise much needed donations for the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered charity No. 1049742.) The trust build affordable homes for stable staff and their families. Helping to keep valuable experience and expertise in racing.
As the trust chairman explains: ‘There are many reasons for a successful yard and one of the most important is the staff. They are not as richly rewarded as we would like and we are always likely to lose key trained lads and lasses when they have just married. Quite rightly they want a home of their own together, but cannot afford to rent anything suitable.’
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Good side to Soft at Sandown where we look at two races. Also the Cheltenham Festival racing charity fundraiser is set to get going. The exclusive preview will be despatched this afternoon and by signing up now you will get your membership ready for tomorrow.
Sandown 3.05
Ardkilly Witness has a 5lb pull in the weights with Rathlin Rose on their C/D form from three weeks ago, when Rathlin Rose won pretty comfortably.
Ceasar Milan had been running well in PTP’s though was below form on his latest start.
Ardkilly Witness is suited by this track and is expected to run Rathlin Rose very close. But I would want the insurance of something closer to an each way price before getting too involved.
My provisional tissue:
Rathlin Rose 2/1
Ardkilly Witness 3/1
Ceasar Milan 7/2
Captain Guy Disney made history at Sandown Park on Friday 17 February by becoming the first person to win a race under Rules wearing a prosthetic limb. The 34-year-old amateur jockey lost his lower right leg after being injured when a rocket-propelled grenade hit his vehicle, while serving with the Light Dragoons in Afghanistan in July 2009. Having ridden beforehand, remarkably, it didn’t take long for Guy to be back in the saddle and nor did it take long for his desire to race-ride emerge. Even though it took considerable effort to convince the British Horseracing Authority to approve his amateur licence, it was finally granted. Partnering the David Pipe-trained Rathlin Rose, Guy rode to victory on Friday in the Royal Artillery Gold Cup — a race restricted to riders who have represented the Armed Forces.
Sandown 3.40
Kayf Adventure runs in his first handicap after impressing last time at Fontwell.
He looks progressive, but hasn’t been missed in the market.
However not a favourite I would oppose lightly.
In comparison Fly Camp, also making his handicap debut, looks on a high mark on form achieved.
I go:
Kayf Adventure 6/4
Fly Camp 13/2
Shaama 13/2
Midnight Sapphire 13/2
10/1 bar
Each year at Cheltenham Festival time we raise much needed donations to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered charity No. 1049742.) The trust build affordable homes for stable staff and their families. Helping to keep valuable experience and expertise in racing.
As the trust chairman explains: ‘There are many reasons for a successful yard and one of the most important is the staff. They are not as richly rewarded as we would like and we are always likely to lose key trained lads and lasses when they have just married. Quite rightly they want a home of their own together, but cannot afford to rent anything suitable.’
For just £25 you will get:
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Full access to my work as a professional backer from Saturday 11th to Sunday 19th March (Festival dates 14th – 17th)
Yesterday’s blog underlined why having a clear line on true value is so important in successful long term professional backing. I had La Breuil in at evens favourite, the impressive winner touched 2/1 before returning an SP of 15/8. Despite the drift from an opening 13/8 – getting around 2/1 for an even money chance is clearly value. The same happened later at Newbury for a race I briefed my private clients about. I had Behind The Wire in at 5/2, he won strongly at an SP of 7/2 from 4/1.
I spend long hours analysing races and for me the only way to determine true value is by maintaining my own ratings and compiling my own prices, without recourse to the bookmaker odds. There is a lot of twaddle talked by so called experts about betting value. As a professional for many years, I know exactly what the word means in hard cash terms.
We stay at Newbury for another two races this afternoon. The ground has now eased to Soft with Heavy places for the hurdlers.
I am waiting on a course report from a senior contact, so at present all my prices are provisional. It will be be pretty testing out there and the bookmakers are being pretty defensive in their early pricing.
1.30 Newbury
Justification improved on latest start and has taken a 9lb hike in the ratings.
Western Climate runs in his first handicap having run well in a Hereford novice that is looking to be quite strong form.
Spice Fair is exposed, but ran second in this race last year and is expected to go well at big odds.
Hello George is of interest, being potentially well handicapped. He is very lightly raced and is expected to improve from his reappearance effort.
Hello George 5/1
Western Climate 11/2
Justification 11/2
Spice Fair 7/1
Willows Saviour 7/1
Western Climate (near)
3.50 Newbury
Just the five declared for this tight 2m 0.5f handicap hurdle
Bol D’air won unchallenged at Plumpton and takes on stronger opposition here.
Vocaliser ran well on latest start but tends to hang and isn’t an easy ride.
Get Rhythm is worth keeping an eye on, although testing ground is a concern.
I have the five runners in at:
Bol D’air 2/1
Vocaliser 11/4
Get Rhythm 11/2
Knightly Pleasure 11/2
Three Colours Red 8/1
2017 Cheltenham Festival
Each year at Cheltenham Festival time we raise much needed donations to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered charity No. 1049742.) The trust build affordable homes for stable staff and their families. Helping to keep valuable experience and expertise in racing.
As the trust chairman explains: ‘There are many reasons for a successful yard and one of the most important is the staff. They are not as richly rewarded as we would like and we are always likely to lose key trained lads and lasses when they have just married. Quite rightly they want a home of their own together, but cannot afford to rent anything suitable.’
For just £25 you will get:
Cheltenham preview. I will be assessing the home challenge whilst leading Irish racing expert Donn McClean covers the Irish horses. Racing broadcaster of the year John Hunt also provides his insight as does lead ITV commentator Richard Hoiles plus we have the intriguing stats for trend analysts.
Exclusive list of horses to follow from the Lambourn trainers
Full access to my work as a professional backer from Saturday 11th to Sunday 19th March (Festival dates 14th – 17th)
Day one of the Newbury Greatwood meeting with tomorrow’s Greatwood Gold Cup being the highlight. We are looking at two races from the course today. The going is Soft – Good to Soft in places on the chase course. The ground may ease again slightly with rain forecast before racing commences at 2.10.
Newbury 2.40
Le Breuil looked very impressive on latest start, with the form being sound.
Assuming that all’s well after an absence of just on four months, he sets a high standard here and should be competitive in a higher grade than this Class 4 event in the future.
I go:
Le Breuil evens
Benatar 7/2
Woodfort 7/2
Le Breuil
Newbury 3.15
Plaisir D’Amour runs from the Venetia Williams stable, who are in great form. Moved from France last December and looks progressive.
Red Devil Star, Greybougg and Keep Moving are all reasonably handicapped.
My tissue:
Plaisir D’Amour 2/1
Red Devil 7/2
Greybougg 7/2
Keep Moving 11/2
12/1 bar
There is currently little value in the early markets for this tight little handicap.
2017 Cheltenham Festival
Each year at Cheltenham Festival time we raise much needed donations to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered charity No. 1049742.) The trust build affordable homes for stable staff and their families. Helping to keep valuable experience and expertise in racing.
As the trust chairman explains: ‘There are many reasons for a successful yard and one of the most important is the staff. They are not as richly rewarded as we would like and we are always likely to lose key trained lads and lasses when they have just married. Quite rightly they want a home of their own together, but cannot afford to rent anything suitable.’
For just £25 you will get:
Cheltenham preview. I will be assessing the home challenge whilst leading Irish racing expert Donn McClean covers the Irish horses. Racing broadcaster of the year John Hunt also provides his insight as does lead ITV commentator Richard Hoiles plus we have the intriguing stats for trend analysts.
Exclusive list of horses to follow from the Lambourn trainers
Full access to my work as a professional backer from Saturday 11th to Sunday 19th March (Festival dates 14th – 17th)
Four graded races at Kempton where our concentration lies today. There are plenty of ‘ifs and buts’ to complicate the pricing of certain races. The going is Good and we are looking at two races:
Kempton 3.35 3mBetBright Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
Wide open handicap in which thirteen declared contest for the near on £57,000 first prize.
Theatre Guide is expected to go well in a race he won last year. He is now 14lb higher in the handicap, but his Cheltenham win two starts ago gives him prospects here as the second top weight.
Currently quoted from 9/1 to a best priced 11/1 which looks about right range.
Theatre Guide (right)
Kempton 4.10 2m4f110y Watch Live Racing On betbright.com Handicap Chase (Class 3)
Only Sir Note and Lemon’s Gent come into this race in form and both look beatable.
Full Shift figures on a lenient handicap mark if the first time “cheek-pieces+tongue-tie” have a positive effect. I put him in provisionally at 9/4 which is at the top end of the prices on offer.
Full Shift2017 Cheltenham Festival
Each year at Cheltenham Festival time we raise much needed donations to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered charity No. 1049742.) The trust build affordable homes for stable staff and their families. Helping to keep valuable experience and expertise in racing.
As the trust chairman explains: ‘There are many reasons for a successful yard and one of the most important is the staff. They are not as richly rewarded as we would like and we are always likely to lose key trained lads and lasses when they have just married. Quite rightly they want a home of their own together, but cannot afford to rent anything suitable.’
For just £25 you will get:
Cheltenham preview. I will be assessing the home challenge whilst leading Irish racing expert Donn McClean covers the Irish horses. Racing broadcaster of the year John Hunt also provides his insight as does lead ITV commentator Richard Hoiles plus we have the intriguing stats for trend analysts.
Exclusive list of horses to follow from the Lambourn trainers
Full access to my work as a professional backer from Saturday 11th to Sunday 19th March (Festival dates 14th – 17th)
Two races for us at Warwick this afternoon and an important update on our Cheltenham Festival charity preview as main ITV commentator Richard Hoiles has kindly joined the contributors.
The going at Warwick is Soft and after yesterday’s beating from the storms, a relatively pleasant day is forecast.
2.00 Warwick
With form horses Coo Star Sivola and Global Stage having disappointed on their latest starts – a difficult race to assess.
Monsieur Co was beaten when left clear at the final hurdle, with that form looking suspect.
At current prices Coo Star Sivola is preferred.
I price the main players as follows.
Coo Star 7/4
Global 2/1
Monsieur Co 11/4
Coo Star Sivola
4.10 Warwick
This is a ‘hands and heels’ handicap hurdle for amateurs and conditionals – whips not to be used. Not the sort of race I would get too seriously involved with.
In theory William Money is thrown-in racing of a 15lb lower mark than when winning over fences 2 days ago. The question is whether he will transfer that form to hurdles.
Act Now is sure to run well but has not been missed by the handicapper.
Staunton has been needing this step up in trip and looks an e/w option. Best priced at 15/2 this morning.
On my private tissue I go:
William Money 11/10
Act Now 5/1
Staunton 5/1
10/1 bar
William Money
Each year at Cheltenham Festival time we raise much needed donations to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered charity No. 1049742.) The trust build affordable homes for stable staff and their families. Helping to keep valuable experience and expertise in racing.
As the trust chairman explains: ‘There are many reasons for a successful yard and one of the most important is the staff. They are not as richly rewarded as we would like and we are always likely to lose key trained lads and lasses when they have just married. Quite rightly they want a home of their own together, but cannot afford to rent anything suitable.’
For just £25 you will get:
Cheltenham preview. I will be assessing the home challenge whilst leading Irish racing expert Donn McClean covers the Irish horses. Racing broadcaster of the year John Hunt also provides his insight as does lead ITV commentator Richard Hoiles plus we have the intriguing stats for trend analysts.
Exclusive list of horses to follow from the Lambourn trainers
Full access to my work as a professional backer from Saturday 11th to Sunday 19th March (Festival dates 14th – 17th)
Three really good meetings today after a fairly uninspiring week of racing. Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton all report varying degrees of soft ground. Two races from Ascot to look at:
Beyond Conceit impressed when returning from a long absence on hurdles debut. Just a slight cause for concern was the poor performances of Nicky Henderson’s runners yesterday.
Tintern Theatre looks overpriced at the current 14/1 on general offer and 16/1 in places.
Five of the other seven contenders are capable of improvement.
Will prove to be a highly informative race for the future.
The improving Go Conquer is just preferred. Last seen on the track when second at the Kempton Christmas meeting in another valuable handicap.
Chef D’Oeuvre won unchallenged on desperate ground at Hereford and that piece of form is difficult to evaluate.
Tenor Nivernais ran well over c/d three starts ago. Essentially a 2m 6f horse who would have to make this his first ever win over 3m. At the 8/1 on offer worth considering a win only value bet.
On my private tissue I price them:
Go Conquer 7/2
Tenor Nivernais 9/2
Chef D’ Oeuvre 9/2
Tenor Nivernais
For many years I have raised funds for the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered charity No. 1049742.) The trust build affordable homes for stable staff and their families, helping to keep valuable staff in racing.
This year’s fundraiser will again be centred around the Cheltenham Festival. For a donation of £25 you will get the exclusive Cheltenham preview, horses to follow direct from the Lambourn trainers plus membership for the period 11th to 19th March. Your full £25 will go directly to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust.
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