Category Archives: horse racing

Making Plans For Nigel

Five British turf meetings for us today with good ground at all of them.

We start this afternoon at Market Rasen with Detour Ahead in the 2.50. After a long absence she hinted at a return to form last time at Bangor having been pulled up on her two return outings. Steps up in grade today and has winning form on good ground.

I make her 4/1 on my private tissue.

Ascot-Racecourse
Ascot racecourse

Our next race is the opener from this evening’s card at Ascot. Nigel is a horse I noted early last year. He failed to deliver on the promise shown despite being a warm order in the market on a number of occasions.

Has recently moved from the John Gosden yard to Richard Hughes in Upper Lambourn. Steps up in distance to 2 miles and is worth a look.

Difficult race to price accurately. The bookmakers are going a cautious 9/2.

Back tomorrow morning when we have Ascot and Haydock as the highlights.

Looking for value

Two major races for us this afternoon both dominated by horses from the major Irish yards. As I have touched on previously, the power of such stables has been contentious in Ireland in recent years and is now starting to have a similar effect in Britain.

3.45 Newmarket 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1)

Air Force Blue chance is reflected in his price and offers little value. The Dewhurst winner is a general 8/11. First time tongue-tie.

The form of Marcel’s Racing Post Trophy win is solid. Ease in the ground is fine and I would expect him to go well. At a best price 11/1 he looks a decent each way prospect.

marcel 2
Marcel

 

3.50 Punchestown Mares Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)

Limini is short in the market on the form achieved. Raced keenly at Aintree last time and that exertion told in the final stages.

As we continue to witness, the Mullins’ horses can improve significantly, but I would be wary of taking short odds about Limini. Gets a general 11/10 quote from the layers, I go 9/4 the field. Jennies Jewel is now a non-runner.

 

Gold for Kerry?

Plenty of rain around Britain and Ireland today to freshen up the ground in below average temperatures. I am going to look at two later races.

We start with the Punchestown Champion Hurdle at 5.30. Vroum Vroum Mag comes up against the boys for the first time and has a considerable weight advantage in her bid to make it 10 from 10 since she moved to the Mullins yard.

I just can’t get her in at the 5/4 – 11/8 currently on offer. 9/4 on my tissue.

Vroum Vroum Mag
Vroum Vroum Mag

Our other race of interest is the 6.50 at Bangor. Magheral Express makes his first start for Kerry Lee since leaving Jonjo O’Neill.

Fairly handicapped on his early hurdles form and could well respond to the change of stable.
I have him at 9/2. He has drifted slightly this morning to 5/1 with some firms.

With both races, I want to see how the ground is riding before firming up my prices.

Newmarket report their advance going for the weekend is Good to Soft. It could be part of our focus tomorrow.

Wolf to defy Mullins?

As the trainers title race goes right to the final day, two races for us this afternoon at Sandown. The going is good and a dry afternoon is forecast.

 2.20 Sandown bet365 Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 2)

Voix Du Reve held every chance when falling at final hurdle at Cheltenham. Has been put up 5lb in the handicap, although David Mullins can claim 3lb. Must go close, but that is reflected in the market. Currently a best priced 3/1 and a general 9/4 – 5/2 elsewhere.

At bigger odds a case can be made for Wolf Of Windlesham, who was last seen winning on the flat. Lightly campaigned over the winter with two victories from three starts over hurdles, including winning the JCB trial at Cheltenham.

 

wolf-of-windlesham
Wolf Of Windlesham

 

I price the market leaders as follows:

Voix Du Reve  5/2

Tommy Silver 4/1

Wolf Of Windlesham 8/1

Ashoka  8/1

12/1 bar

 

4.10 Sandown bet365 Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) (CLASS 1)

Southfield Theatre is well handicapped on his second in last year’s RSA. Hard to know what form he is in after being brought down before the race had really began at Cheltenham. The £84,000 winners prize would be a significant step towards the title for Paul Nicholls.

southfield-theatre
Southfield Theatre

Henri Parry Morgan had looked exposed, but has reached a new level in form since being fitted with a tongue tie. He finished an excellent second in a Grade 1 at Aintree two weeks ago and still looks progressive. I expect him to run a big race.

Wide open race, the  8/1 on offer for the two mentioned looks about right.

Another winning bet for us yesterday to make it four from five on the week. For more details about my work, go to the website: www.slh.co.uk

Parsnip @ Perth

Last few days of the 2015/16 jumps season before we have a break and start the new season on Thursday at Towcester.

One race for us to look at this afternoon, the 2.30 from what has been a very good three days at Perth. Parsnip Pete starts for the first time this year since running poorly at the Cheltenham International meeting in December. The 10 y.o. steps down in class today and is on a favourable handicap mark if retaining some of his old ability. Difficult race to price up, I would go 7/2 the field on my provisional tissue.

Parsnip pete
Parsnip Pete on his way to victory at Aintree

We are ending the season strongly. Three winners from four bets so far this week.

Have a few visits with flat contacts lined up next week. The emphasis will be to significantly build upon the profits made so far this year over the summer campaign.

Back tomorrow morning. Let’s hope we can narrow things down like we did last week in the Scottish National with Vicente and Seeyouatmidnight. The winner was well backed from the morning 22/1 into 14/1.

Top value

Two races for us today at Ayr where the ground is Good to Soft.

 1.50 Ayr Weatherbys Private Bank Novices´ Limited Handicap Chase (CLASS 2)

Very open contest, where it’s possible to make a case for all seven runners.

At current odds Top Billing is the pick for me. Ran well on his return to fences at Carlisle and will appreciate this step up to 3m. Is fairly handicapped and expected to go well.

Top weight and favourite Vivaldi Collonges looks the main threat. Has past winning form over course and distance.

I price the market leaders as follows:

Vivaldi  Collonges  7/2

Top Billing  9/2

One For Art  6/1

8/1 bar

4.10 Ayr Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (5yo+)

With a strong Irish challenge, impossible to price with confidence.

Plenty of focus will be on the Irish National fourth, Folsom Blue as trainer Mouse Morris attempts to land a unique national treble by winning the Grand National plus Irish and Scottish versions in the same season.

Home trained runners Seeyouatmidnight and Vicente are fairly handicapped and both will appreciate this stamina test. The pair are currently 18/1 and 22/1 respectively.

Jockeys 5lb claim could prove to be useful on Seeyouatmidnight.

 

 

Seeyouatmidnight
Seeyouatmidnight

 

After the abandonment of Newbury, we have three other turf meetings remaining today in Britain. The ground at all will be fairly testing. A lot of trainers will have entered their horses for today in the expectation that the ground would be far better. As we can see from the substantial number of non-runners, many have decided against taking their chances in unsuitable conditions.

 

Red Day?

Two races for us to quickly look at this afternoon and then I would like to touch on the new Flat season.

Firstly to the Fontwell 2.10. Billy Merriott has raced just four times since his last victory in November 2012 and has failed to finish in three of them. However, his last outing at Doncaster just over four months ago showed that he could retain some of his old ability. I trust Harry Fry has put plenty of work into the 10 y.o. Impossible race to price with confidence, I would provisionally put Billy Merriott in at 9/4.

A marked step up in class as we go to Ayr for their premier race on the card. The 3.45 is a listed race worth over £25,000 to the winner. Definitly Red and Double Shuffle are at the head of the market.

Definitly Red drops 5lb from his lacklustre showing at the Cheltenham Festival and is on a favourable mark. My negative is the 2m 4f trip may be too sharp.

The bookmakers are taking no chances, with a general 11/4 quote. 9/2 on my tissue.

Pity we have lost Newbury today, but the two days of Newmarket this week have been interesting.

Sutter County
Sutter County

On Wednesday I analysed three additional races for clients personal use as part of the comprehensive racing service provided. Two over the jumps winning at 13/8 and 6/1 plus highlighting the Royal Ascot prospects of Sutter County. Whilst winning narrowly at prohibitive odds, he will come on from that run in fairly testing ground.

Just one flat horse for us the following day, another narrow winner, this time at 3/1.

As a professional, I like to see the flat season take shape before getting involved. Account betting will start in the forthcoming weeks.

Back tomorrow morning.

Grand National

On Thursday I posted my Grand National preview. This morning I would like to narrow things down.

The forecast at Aintree is sunshine and showers this afternoon with light winds. After the overnight rain the ground has eased to soft.

Crabbie´s Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (7yo+)

  • Winner: £561,300
  • Maximum runners: 40
  • Distance: 4m 2f 74y
  • Going: Soft

Holywell’s latest Cheltenham form was let down yesterday with Un Temps Pour Tout being well beaten. Carrying top weight he finished a creditable second at the festival with a number of today’s rivals behind him. The 9y.o. carries a stone less this afternoon.  Currently a general 16/1.

The class horse is Silviniaco Conti who is handicapped to win if he stays the trip. Has won at this meeting for the past two years.

Silviniaco Conti
Silviniaco Conti

The Last Samuri could have done without the overnight rain, but I still expect him to go well. Comes here fresh having not raced since his easy victory over The Druids Nephew at Doncaster in early March.

 

The Last Samuri
The Last Samuri

Whilst I respect the chances of Many Clouds to win here again, the 8/1 on offer represents no value.

Plenty of competition amongst the layers. Many go 5 places with some firms going 6 places. It pays to shop around.

 

Update

After a lot of hard work on today’s cards, there is not a lot of value to be had.

At Aintree the three handicaps are incredibly difficult to unravel and I am not going to get sucked in to bookmakers benefit races.

The 3.25 is there for Vautour on the Cheltenham run. This leaves the 2.50 where I go 7/4 Un Temps Pour Tout and 3/1 Blaklion, which leaves minimal value against the books.

Finally the 2.40 Newcastle. Mumgos Debut is dropped in class today in an attempt to get the 8 y.o. into the winners enclosure for the first time in seventeen attempts. 2/1 my tissue.

Back tomorrow.

2/1 the pair

Two races for us to briefly look at today. Both for races that are very tight at the top of the market.

We start in the 2.05 Newcastle.

Looks a match between Lake View Lad and Lamool. The market has them at 4/7 and 6/4 respectively.

Lake View Lad disappointed when stepped up in class at Kelso last time. Drops markedly back to Class 4 again today.

Lamool returns from a six month break. Has won above this level in the past.

Both are off the same weight and have 5lb claimers. I have the pair as even money joint-fav’s.

On to the 2.15 at Aintree.

Limini impressed when winning the Mares’ Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham and takes on the boys today.

It’s another Mullins vs Henderson match up with Buveur D’air the main danger. I go 2/1 the pair.

Limini
Limini

Will be doing a quick update for Aintree around 1.30 today.