Two races from Sandown to look at today. The forecast going is on the good side of soft, which is in marked contrast to the heavier conditions experienced at most courses recently that have played a dominant role in my pricing and overall assessment of races.
Gino Trail and Big Jim should ensure this race is run at a good pace.
Difficult to access the level of form achieved by Dolos over fences with certainty, but his mark looks high enough.
Cepage stayed on well to finish second at Ascot in similar conditions. A reproduction of that effort gives him every chance here. Charlie Deutsch claims 3lb which is a positive.
Top Gamble is on a good handicap mark.
I price the field as follows:
Cepage 5/2
Top Gamble 7/2
Gino Trail 4/1
Dolos 6/1
Big Jim 6/1
Somchine 33/1
Currently the books all hover around the 3/1 mark for the top three in the market.
Cepage
3.353m Betfred Mobile Masters Handicap Chase (Class 2) (5yo+)
Very open handicap.
Final Nudge will be suited by conditions and is on a fair mark. He is the 5/1 favourite with the majority of layers.
Quite By Chance has had a wind operation since last seen at Cheltenham on new year’s day. He has always given me the impression that longer distances could suit him best. At the 14/1 presently on offer, he is of interest.
Quite By Chance
2018 Cheltenham Festival
We are now just over five weeks away from the start of the 2018 Cheltenham Festival. I will once again be providing the Cheltenham preview and membership package with all funds going to support the stable staff.
Today we have the final Cheltenham meeting before the Festival. It is a fantastic day of racing with eight graded races, five from Cheltenham plus three at Doncaster.
The going at both meetings is soft with further rain forecast throughout the day. The other jumps fixture in Britain is at Uttoxeter where the going is heavy. There is also racing in Ireland at Fairyhouse which contains a few races of interest for the future.
We are going to look at two of the Grade 2 races from Cheltenham:
Bristol de Mai would be at very short odds if coming here directly from his Betfair Chase success at Haydock. However there is the small matter of a desperately disappointing subsequent effort in the King George on Boxing Day to consider.
His two best pieces of form have been shown in very deep ground at Haydock.
It may be that he can handle those conditions when others can’t.
Although the ground will be soft today, it’s very doubtful if it will be as testing as at Haydock. He has to be considered a vulnerable favourite.
Most of the opposition have achieved a similar level of form, with the exception of The Last Samuri. He has been a wonderfully consistent horse at a high handicap level.
He looks to be as good as ever, judging on his latest Aintree run.
In receipt of weight from the majority of the field I expect a big performance.
Wholestone put up an improved performance when winning the Relkeel Hurdle on New Years Day.
Both Agrapart and Colins Sister finished behind him there.
Although both enjoy a small pull in the weights, I expect Wholestone to confirm that form.
Finian’s Oscar reverts to hurdles from chasing and his chance is greatly respected.
Beer Goggles has improved on each of his three starts this season.
A line through Colin’s Sister puts him on a par with Wholestone.
Let’s hope he puts up a very strong performance.
On my private tissue I have the front of the market as below:
Wholestone 7/2
Beer Goggles 5/1
Finian’s Oscar 5/1
Wholestone
The early prices on offer from the books are fairly tight around their respective favourites: Bristol and Finian’s. As you will see when making a comparison, it is a view I do not share.
2017 Report & Special Membership
Looking back at 2017, it proved to be another lucrative year for my select group of members with well over 100 points profit. We recorded a profit on stakes invested of some 30% and an overall strike rate of 43%.
As with 2016 when we made 100 points, my traditional bookmaker style bets on the Private Service accounted for around 60% of the total bets and profit. 92% of all Private bets were win only and as always, no bets were odds-on.
The Exchange bets maintained steady profit growth achieving an overall 62% strike rate. With the large discount on offer the Exchange Service is well worth adding to your betting portfolio.
You also have my additional race analysis which is for your discretionary use. Members using this area of my work found it to be a regular source of additional profit.
In all, a wholly professional service for the more astute backer.
There are currently special terms available which you can take advantage of now for a limited period. For example to the end of the jumps season, 1st May, are £245 for the Private Service only and £285 for both the Private and Exchange Services. There is also a saving of up to £175 against standard terms for yearly membership. For full details go to: http://www.slh.co.uk/special-terms/
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Top quality afternoon of racing with the Clarence House being the premier race of the day. One of seven graded races from Ascot and Haydock. At a lower level, we also have an interesting card from Taunton.
We are staying at Ascot for the early analysis. Heavy rain is forecast throughout the morning which lightens during racing. The reported soft ground is likely to ease further as the day progresses.
3.002m5f bet365 Handicap Chase (Class 2) (5yo+)
A case of sorts can be made for all of today’s six remaining runners after three came out first thing this morning.
Acting Lass is progressive. However his chase wins were gained at Leicester and Market Rasen. He takes on stronger opposition here and could be a vulnerable favourite.
The horse that interests me most is the outsider Minella Daddy.
He hasn’t been seen since disappointing at Kempton on Boxing Day 2016. He had been progressive until that run, and returns to action on a fair handicap mark. Minella Daddy’s best two performances have been at this track. The 2m 5f today in testing conditions will take plenty of the stamina he has shown over 3m.
Looking at the odds currently on offer I would make two observations: Acting Lass at 6/4 looks skinny and the 12/1 for Minella Daddy is value in theory.
Minella Daddy
3.352m1f Royal Salute Whisky Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5yo+)
Un De Sceaux sets a high standard. His reappearance win at Cork indicates that he retains plenty of ability.
Brain Power impressed on chase debut before disappointing at Sandown.
Kylemore Lough can be forgiven his latest pulled-up on latest start at Cheltenham.
He was in front travelling well, when he made a terrible mistake at the water jump and could never recover his rhythm.
I expect him to go well on this second run for Harry Fry. Currently a best quoted 12/1.
My private tissue:
Un De Sceaux 4/7
Brain Power 5/1
Kylemore Lough 5/1
33/1 bar
Kylemore Lough
I will be getting going reports direct from course contacts before finalising my betting plans and briefing members at lunchtime. Haydock has passed the inspection and like Taunton, the ground will be testing. It is important to have up to date going reports with such changeable conditions.
Looking back at 2017, it proved to be another lucrative year for my select group of members with well over 100 points profit. We recorded a profit on stakes invested of some 30% and an overall strike rate of 43%. As with 2016 when we made 100 points, my traditional bookmaker style bets on the Private Service accounted for around 60% of the total. 92% of all Private bets were win only and as always, no bets were odds-on. The Exchange bets maintained steady profit growth and with the large discount on offer are well worth adding to your betting portfolio.
If you want to take your first steps towards genuine professional backing, take the time to visit the website and apply for the free info pack. Go to: www.slh.co.uk
Please rest assured that any details you provide are held in strictest confidence and are never passed to any third party.
Highly competitive race with the books unable to make any discernible difference between the front three in the market. All are going around 5/1 the field.
Coeur Blimey steps back up in trip and is worth keeping on side at double figure odds. After impressing at Wincanton on his penultimate start, he disappointed at Ascot, where his jumping wasn’t fluent. He had high class bumper form and the Wincanton win confirmed that he retains that level of ability. Today’s conditions will suit and a big run is expected.
Today’s jockey is Lucy Gardener, who is his regular rider and claims what could be a valuable 3lb in this tight race.
16 runners currently, so four places on offer to each way backers.
Count Meribel looked sure to win at the final hurdle, before being outstayed by Kilbricken Storm on latest start at Cheltenham.
Mr Whipped still looked ‘green’ when winning at Newbury. That run makes him the form choice, and with further improvement anticipated he will be hard to beat.
I provisionally price the six runners as follows:
Mr Whipped 7/4
Count Meribel 9/4
Chooseyourweapon 8/1
Knight In Dubai 10/1
Paisley Park 10/1
Cave Top 16/1
Mr Whipped
Looking back at 2017, it proved to be another lucrative year for my select group of members with well over 100 points profit. We recorded a profit on stakes invested of some 30% and an overall strike rate of 43%. As with 2016 when we made 100 points, my traditional bookmaker style bets on the Private Service accounted for around 60% of the total. 92% of all Private bets were win only and as always, no bets were odds-on. The Exchange bets maintained steady profit growth and with the large discount on offer are well worth adding to your betting portfolio.
If you want to take your first steps towards genuine professional backing, take the time to visit the website and apply for the free info pack. Go to: www.slh.co.uk
Please rest assured that any details you provide are held in strictest confidence and are never passed to any third party.
Two races for us today: Starting with a tight little handicap hurdle to start the seven race card at Haydock. Then on to the feature race of the day, the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle from Ascot where Unowhatimeanharry looks to repeat his victory in this race last year.
Contrast in ground conditions between the two tracks with Haydock reporting the going as Heavy whilst Ascot is Good to Soft. Both will be run under the thick cloud forecast to cover most of the country.
11.502m7f Betfred Wishing You A Merry Christmas Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-135)
Southfield Royale is potentially well handicapped switching to hurdles, but has plenty to prove.
Away For Slates has his third start for the Skelton stable. His form ties in with Becky The Thatcher, with nothing between them on their Wetherby run.
Neither is sure to be suited by today’s stamina test.
Isaacstown Lad ran well on his reappearance at Ayr. He is on a reasonable handicap mark. Conditions are ideal and he is a worthy favourite.
My tissue for the front of the market:
Isaacstown Lad 9/4
Away For Slates 4/1
Becky The Thatcher 4/1
Southfield Royale 8/1
Southfield Royale
2.253m½f JLT Reve De Sivola Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo+)
At their best Unowhatimeanharry and Lil Rockerfeller set the form standard.
Although both have performed well this season, neither has run to their very best.
I expect them both to run close to their best today.
At the current odds Lil Rockerfeller is my preferred.
Sam Spinner and Thomas Campbell the the two progressive performers who take a step up in class.
I price as follows:
Unowhatimeanharry 3/1
Lil Rockerfeller 3/1
L’Ami Serge 11/2
Sam Spinner 7/1
Thomas Campbell 7/1
Lil Rockerfeller
Six bets so far this week on the Private Service producing three winners at 9/4, 4/1 and 6/1 plus more profits from our exchange betting. We are well over 100 points ahead for the year with a profit on stakes of some 30%, which betters last year’s 25%.
I will be taking my annual break after racing on Boxing Day, returning in early January. If you want to take your first steps towards genuine professional backing, take the time to visit the website and apply for the free info pack. Go to: www.slh.co.uk
My best wishes for Christmas and the new year. The next preview will be Saturday 13th January.
Knockgraffon has first start since moving stables from Dan Skelton.
He is fairly handicapped if Olly Murphy can get him back to his best form.
Gin Trail returned to his best on latest start. Harry Skelton takes the ride. If successful it would be his first winner this season for an outside stable.
Bun Doran looks sure to go well. He figures on a fair mark and may well progress further.
All bar three of these ran in the Betvictor just under a month ago.
Starchitect made errors at the final two fences, but for which I think he would have beaten Splash Of Ginge.
Outside of the Betvictor form, King’s Odyssey ran with promise on reappearance and is handicapped to win. If anywhere near his best he must go well.
Clan Des Obeaux stayed on well to win at Haydock. He is progressive and my preferred.
My tissue for the front of market:
Clan Des Obeaux 7/2
King’s Odyssey 6/1
Starchitect 6/1
Clan Des Obeaux
With so much racing lost to the weather, it has been a very quiet week for account betting. The many members who use my selective additional analysis and information have been rewarded in the past couple of days with two good priced winners. Firstly with Padleyourowncanoe at Taunton on Thursday who was backed from 8/1 early into 13/2 and then yesterday at Cheltenham with Arthur’s Gift who stayed on strongly to win at 6/1. Both were also the only horses highlighted on my Facebook and Twitter posts. You can discover more about my work at: www.slh.co.uk
We are going to look at the two major races at Sandown this afternoon, both will be significant yardsticks for the season.
The going is Good to Soft and whilst a dry day is forecast, the temperature is not expected to get above 3 Celsius after being below zero overnight. As usual, I will be getting a first-hand course report in time to brief members with my betting plans later this morning.
A further inpection is planned for 10 a.m. but officials are very optimistic that racing will go ahead.
1.451m7½f randoxhealth.com Henry VIII Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo+)
A cracking novice chase with all five runners capable of winning further races.
Brain Power made a big impression on chase debut at Kempton.
He looks sue to be a big player come the ‘spring festival’ meetings.
Finian’s Oscar is also a top class prospect.
However, he could be vulnerable dropping back to 2 miles against a horse of the class of Brain Power.
On my private tissue I have them provisionally priced as follows:
Brain Power 13/8
Finian’s Oscar 5/2
Capitaine 13/2
North Hill Harvey 7/1
Sceau Royale 12/1
Brain Power
2.551m7½f Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo+)
Fox Norton sets a very high standard and looks to be still progressing. His reappearance win at Cheltenham was impressive.
The only negative I can find is that he’s possibly better going left-handed. He had to be hard ridden to win at right-handed Punchestown last season, but even so that form is high class.
Of the opposition Sir Valentino looks to be overpriced. Currently around 20/1 with the books. He returned to form on latest start and is expected to run well.
My early tissue:
Fox Norton 4/6
Politologue 11/2
Sir Valentino 13/2
Ar Mad 20/1
San Benedeto 25/1
Charbel 25/1
Fox Norton
Peter Walwyn MBE
The sad news was announced yesterday that Peter Walwyn had died. Like many others I would like to pay tribute to one of the true greats of horse racing. His achievements as a trainer are legendary.
I first met Peter and his wife, known to all as ‘Bonk’ at Newbury many years ago. My first and lasting impression of Peter was of his warmth and passion for racing.
We met and spoke over the ‘phone numerous times over the years and I was always impressed by his knowledge and forward thinking.
Lambourn and racing generally owes this man of his word a huge debt of gratitude in so many areas.
He has laid a foundation for significant advancement in racing welfare and inclusiveness which I hope will be taken forward in his name.
Delightful company and a true gentleman. I will miss him.
Peter Walwyn trained Grundy, ridden by Pat Eddery, just gets the better of Bustino in the King George. An epic battle described as the ‘Race of the century.’
Terrific card at Newbury this afternoon with two graded and two listed races amongst the seven race card. The going is Good to Soft and a dry day is forecast.
Going to look at two races both honouring two greats of National Hunt racing:
Black Corton has been in fantastic form, putting up his best performance yet when winning at Cheltenham on latest start. Always previously considered best on good ground that latest win was on testing ground. That victory was his fifth consecutive win, all partnered by Bryony Frost, who is in the saddle today.
Black Corton may well continue to progress.
Fountains Windfall won on his chasing debut at Southwell, where his jumping improved as the race progressed. He was a progressive hurdler last season, and could be even better over fences.
I provisionally price the field as follows:
Black Corton 2/1
Fountains Windfall 9/4
Sir Ivan 5/1
Wait For Me 8/1
Elegant Escape 10/1
Black Corton
1.20 2m6½f Sir Peter O’Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-145)
O Maonlai is weighted go close in the race he won last year.
He goes well fresh and this race has been his target.
Arguments can be made for both Bouvreuil and recent Aintree winner On Tour, but both need to prove their effectiveness at this trip.
Currently a general 11/2, which is in keeping with my thinking.
O Maonlai
As I outlined to my select group of members on the weekly review message last Sunday – now the form is now setting down and we have suitable jumping conditions, I will continue to increase turnover levels and look to push the overall profit levels higher. Whilst maintaining a selective value led approach.
Yesterday we were rewarded with a good 12/1 winner at S.P. which followed another decent winner earlier in the week.
To discover more about my work as a professional backer and how you can be backing alongside me, go to: www.slh.co.uk
Take yearly membership today and we will add the rest of 2017 free of charge and also provide you with a £150 discount on standard terms.
Three jump meetings for us today from Ascot, Haydock and Huntingdon. The headline race from the four graded races on offer is the Grade 1 Betfair Chase at Haydock.
We are concentrating on two races from the Haydock card in this analysis where the going is already reported as Heavy. The Lancashire track has had plenty of rain, with more forecast throughout the day. Any significant deterioration in the ground will be a factor.
Later this morning I will be getting direct course reports from all the tracks before briefing members with my betting plans.
12.101m7½f Newton Novices’ Hurdle (Listed Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
Form of all of these is difficult to evaluate.
Dynamite Dollars looked impressive on latest start, but beat little.
I would be wary of anything at short odds.
A case of sorts can be made for all.
Locally trained Waterlord makes his debut for the McCain yard after a two year absence and is worth keeping an eye on at big odds. Currently available at around 25/1.
Bristol De Mai returned to form at Wetherby and last season’s course win made a lasting impression.
Outlander also returned from the wilderness when winning on latest start.
Cue Card was beaten by Tea For Two when last completing.
My provisional tissue which is at variance with the generally available early prices:
Bristol De Mai 7/4
Cue Card 7/2
Outlander 7/2
Tea For Two 6/1
20/1 bar
Bristol De Mai
Over the past seven days we have had just the five selective bets producing four winners. Those four include winners at 9/4 and 10/3, the latter being our biggest bet of this week so far. Plus two more successful lays against short priced favourites, the latest being against a heavily backed 8/11 shot.
Added to our 10/1 winner earlier in the month, it has contributed to our profits for the new season and year overall.
Membership terms have been updated, see all the latest options and get your free information pack at: www.slh.co.uk
Take yearly membership today and we will add the rest of 2017 free of charge and also provide you with a £150 discount on standard terms.
Ideal jumping ground at all three of our meetings today from Cheltenham, Uttoxeter and Wetherby plus I will be keeping a watch on Punchestown where the ground will be a little more testing.
Day 2 of the Open meeting from Cheltenham and two races for us to look at this morning.
Eighteen declared with over £90,000 going to the winner.
Kylemore Lough and Ballyalton are the two of most interest.
Kylemore Lough is well handicapped, has conditions that suit and has been aimed at this race on his first start for Harry Fry.
Ballyalton also figures on a good handicap mark. He had a prep race over hurdles at Aintree just under three weeks ago and looks sure to go well.
Kylemore Lough is my provisional 6/1 favourite followed by Ballyalton at 8/1.
Best early prices for the pair are 13/2 and 11/1 respectively.
Kylemore Lough
As always I will be getting reports direct from the courses throughout the morning before finalising betting plans and briefing my select group of members at noon today. Membership terms have been updated, see all the latest options and get your free information pack at: www.slh.co.uk
Professional backer – Horse Racing Advisory Service
