On Thursday I posted my Grand National preview. This morning I would like to narrow things down.

The forecast at Aintree is sunshine and showers this afternoon with light winds. After the overnight rain the ground has eased to soft.

Crabbie´s Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (7yo+)

• Winner: £561,300
• Maximum runners: 40
• Distance: 4m 2f 74y
• Going: Soft

Holywell’s latest Cheltenham form was let down yesterday with Un Temps Pour Tout being well beaten. Carrying top weight he finished a creditable second at the festival with a number of today’s rivals behind him. The 9y.o. carries a stone less this afternoon.  Currently a general 16/1.

The class horse is Silviniaco Conti who is handicapped to win if he stays the trip. Has won at this meeting for the past two years.

The Last Samuri could have done without the overnight rain, but I still expect him to go well. Comes here fresh having not raced since his easy victory over The Druids Nephew at Doncaster in early March.

Whilst I respect the chances of Many Clouds to win here again, the 8/1 on offer represents no value.

Plenty of competition amongst the layers. Many go 5 places with some firms going 6 places. It pays to shop around.

Back to Newbury today for two more races. The going is again good to soft and a warm, sunny day is forecast.

2.35 Newbury

Fingal Bay figures on a lenient handicap mark if he can produce his best. He was a Cheltenham Festival winner in 2014 over hurdles. His participation at this year’s festival ended at half-way after a jumping error and being hampered. He has been disappointing and cheek-pieces plus a tongue-tie are fitted to-day to try and get his chasing career going.

Tour Des Champs carries a penalty for winning unchallenged at Plumpton, though Ryan Hatch’s allowance reduces that by 3lb.

Harry’s Farewell isn’t an easy ride but looks slightly overpriced and should figure.

My tissue:

Fingal Bay 4/1

Tour Des Champs  4/1

Harry’s Farewell 5/1*

Benvolio 7/1

10/1 bar

*Update: Now NR

3.05 Newbury

Thomas Crapper has been a disappointment this season, but returned to form on latest start. A reproduction of that form gives him every chance and first time cheek-pieces may help concentrate his mind.

Difficult to price with a couple of unknowns.

On my provisional tissue I make Thomas Crapper a 3/1 chance and go 5/1 bar.

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Haydock stage a seven race card this afternoon comprising of six wide open handicaps and a bumper. I am going to look at two races, both have that ‘Mission Impossible’ feel about them.

 2.00 Haydock Challenger Middle Distance Chase Series Final (A Handicap Chase) (CLASS 2) (5yo+)

Raktiman is a 9yo that is still on the upgrade. Although raised 9lb for his impressive ten length win at Catterick in early February, he is still expected to figure.

The Cobbler Swayne is also of interest, having done well to win after being hampered on latest start at Ayr just over a fortnight ago.

I have the pair as 13/2 joint favourites on my provisional tissue. As the current prices for both are either on or below my assessment, there is no value at present.

3.10 Haydock Challenger Staying Chase Series Final (A Handicap Chase) (CLASS 2) (5yo+)

No Duffer enjoys a 7lb weight pull with Leo Luna who beat him on latest start at Warwick when the latter was weighted 1lb lower.  He can turn that form around this afternoon.

Has a tendency to jump right-handed, but hopefully Paddy Brennan can get him to the stand side rail in the straight and this shouldn’t cause too much of a problem.

10/1 favourite on my tissue, which only one firm currently matches.

The day has a bookmaker friendly look to it, so not a day for serious involvement.

Just the one race for us today. We go to Kempton where the going is good and a dry day forecast.

3.50 Kempton Park Silver Bowl (A Handicap Chase) (CLASS 2)

Orbasa is a very interesting runner. Finished alone when winning on only start since coming from France to become part of the Nichols yard.
Impressed with his jumping on that British debut run at Fontwell. After the race assistant trainer Tom Jonason said: “He jumped brilliantly and coming into the race we knew that he would come on a lot and he looked very well in the paddock, so hopefully it’s onwards and upwards.”
The original plan was to send him to Cheltenham, but connections have decided to target the £25,000 first prize this afternoon.
All his three starts this season have been in softer ground than he will get today. Has winning form on good ground in France.
Guesswork involved, but I can make a case for him being well handicapped despite going up 5lb. 4/1 my provisional tissue, current prices range from 3/1 to 9/2.

We enjoyed a rewarding Cheltenham with profits every day. The meeting started for us with a 4/1 winner and closed with an each way place at 25/1. There was plenty more to enjoy in-between. My thanks again to everyone who helped raise money to support the stable staff.