Kempton and Wetherby for us this afternoon. The going is reported as Soft and Heavy respectively, with a dry day at both courses.
Two races this afternoon to quickly look at.
We start with the Wetherby 2.25. A trappy race in which only the short-priced favourite Bawden Rocks, has any recent winning form. The one that looks overpriced is Formidableopponent, who could stay on in these testing conditions. Currently 8/1 best.
Josses Hill has a point to prove today
The Kempton 3.15 is an intriguing four runner affair. I price them as follows:
Josses Hill 6/4
Gods Own 13/8
Aso 5/1
Kings Lad 16/1
In last year’s Arkle Gods Own and Josses Hill finished second and third respectively. Josses Hill has a weight pull today. For me, it totally depends on which one is ‘right’ today. They both have a bit to prove.
Back tomorrow with the Satuday analysis. The feature meeting is from Newbury. But we have a forecast of heavy and prolonged rain prior to racing, which will be a significant factor.
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Three races from Sandown to look at this afternoon. All three comprise of small fields and it is a day when value is thin. The ground is expected to be on the soft side of good with a light shower before racing commences.
1.15 Sandown Betfred Racing Contenders Hurdle (Listed Race)
Just four declared and a very difficult race to price with Peace and Co having ‘bombed out’ on his seasonal return; taking his 100% record and an uncomfortable Daryl Jacob with him.
A repeat of the form he showed when winning last season’s Triumph Hurdle would win him this race. But having had their fingers badly burned by his erratic performance last time there may be some tempted to look elsewhere.
Rayvin Black would be the one to benefit if the favourite disappoints. Second on latest start behind The New One. Impressed when winning here again in early January. Steps out handicap class today.
Rayvin Black is a natural front runner. This could prove tactical, depending whether the favourite has put his past exuberance behind him. 1.50 Sandown Betfred Handicap Chase (CLASS 2)
Again difficult to price with Grey Gold having disappointed on latest start. He was reported to be lame. With testing conditions ideal he would have every chance if at the level he showed at Newbury when victorious on his seasonal debut.
Chris Pea Green is of interest. Returning from a break, he is fairly handicapped and goes well in heavy ground. The Gary Moore stable have had a remarkable run of success with their runners at the track this season. 9/2 on my tissue taking into account Mr Mole’s absence.
Two very progressive horses and I just prefer Bristol De Mai over Tea For Two.
They will be tight at the head of the market, with no great value to be had. I go 6/4 Bristol, 13/8 Tea. We are now down to four with the two non-runners.
Bristol De Mai just preferred today
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A very entertaining day of quality racing. We have a total of six Grade 2 races from Cheltenham and Doncaster. This morning I want to have a look at two of them, both at Cheltenham. The course has passed an earlier inspection and the going is heavy after prolonged overnight rainfall.
1.50 Cheltenham BetBright Trial Chase (Grade 2)
Willie Mullins has just the one runner at Cheltenham today with Djakadam; the £56,000 winner’s purse squarely in his sights. He will be at short odds to carry on the progression most notably shown at Punchestown when comprehensively winning the John Durkan Memorial.
Many Clouds, Smad Place and O’Faolains Boy are all of a similar standard. I make these three 13/2 co-second favourites. Despite the favourite’s overly cramped odds there is an angle into this race.
Eight runners are declared and with three of those hard to fancy, this race has an each way look to it.
In contrast to the market, I just prefer Many Clouds over Smad Place and O’Faolains Boy. The former pair finished first and second in this race last year.
2015 Grand National winner, Many Clouds
3.35 Cheltenham Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2)
An odd race with four of the seven runners reverting to hurdles from chasing.
Ptit Zig is of interest but there is a doubt about him staying this 2m 7f trip. Unseated his rider two out when looking beaten at long odds-on last time. Similar conditions but 3f shorter.
Camping Ground confounded his more illustrious rivals with a strong display to land the Relkeel hurdle here on new year’s day. Prior to this his chase debut ended after jumping errors when he unseated in the Peterborough. Another for me that has to prove his stamina.
Thistlecrack is progressive as shown in his last two outings when taking the Long Distance and Long Walk hurdles by clear margins. With the doubts concerning the opposition, he deserves to be at short odds. My oods for the front three are:
Thistlecrack 1/1
Camping Ground 5/2
Ptit Zig 8/1
Finally a word for the evergreen Knockara Beau who continued to defy his thirteen years with a gritty performance when runner-up here at the new year meeting. He runs at Cheltenham today for the 21st time, including his 2014 victory in this race.
Scrappy looking afternoon of racing with little of discernible value to go at.
Difficult to accurately price up the key races at Doncaster. More a card for future reference.
At Huntingdon there are two races of interest. The 2.40 doesn’t look as clear cut as the betting suggests and there are plenty here with chances.
The 3.15 is a real conundrum. None of the five come into this inspiring confidence. At The Top makes her chasing debut after not really doing a lot over hurdles. However, she has the make of a chaser. Wouldn’t want to take anything under 13/8.
Djakadam impressed on latest outing when winning the John Durkan Memorial
Tomorrow is an entirely different matter with last year’s Gold Cup runner-up Djakadam being Willie Mullins’ only runner at Cheltenham. Paul Townend is dispatched to Doncaster to ride his three runners there.
For the first time this week we have a full racing programme. Whilst the ground will be testing at all three meetings, a relatively dry day is expected. Two feature races for us today and I looking beyond the favourite. 3.00 Ascot Clarence House Chase (Grade 1)
Un De Sceaux looked the most likely winner until falling two out on latest start at Leopardstown last month. That was his seasonal debut after festival victories at both Cheltenham and Punchestown.
He has yet to reach his full potential and is given the utmost respect. A record of thirteen wins from fifteen career races makes impressive reading for the Mullins 8yo.
However he makes no appeal at long odds-on.
He comes up against the 2014 Champion Chaser and winner of this race in Sire de Grugy, who looks the value option after rediscovering his form this season. Conditions will be ideal and he has the beating of the other three runners.
I would have the pair together in the market at around the 11/8 mark.
Sire De Grugy
3.15 Haydock Peter Marsh Chase (Grade 2)
In testing conditions, the 3 miles around a very heavy Haydock will be a test of stamina.
No doubting that Reve De Sivola is the best handicapped horse here.
However to my eye he never really took to chasing and looks a much happier horse over hurdles. A decent round of jumping would make him difficult to beat, but I have my doubts. I wouldn’t want to be taking the current 7/2 with such uncertainty.
There are cases to be made for his rivals. Cloudy Two runs off the same low weight as the favourite having finished third to Seventh Sky in the Tommy Whittle here in December.
Virak is in form and handles conditions. Although exposed in the handicap, he looks sure to go well with the rider claiming 7lb. I have Virak as 11/2 co-fav on my tissue.
The weather has certainly had a big say this week. Since my last blog on Saturday there have been eleven scheduled meetings, of which six have been abandoned. The standard of the five remaining has not been particularly inspiring.
Today we are left with Market Rasen after Chepstow succumbed to waterlogging. The going at Rasen is a mixture of good to soft and soft. It will make a welcome change from the heavy ground that has dominated recently.
Two races quickly touch on. Firstly, the 1.50 where bottom weight Herons Heir makes his handicap debut. On what he has achieved so far, the general 7/4 on offer looks very short. I go 5/1 on my tissue.
The 2.55 looks a wide open affair. Sunny Legend looks to follow up his victory at Towcester two weeks ago. Current 8/1 offers a bit of value.
Un De Sceaux (right) winning the 2015 Arkle Trophy
We have three meetings planned tomorrow. With Ascot and Haydock being the headliners. Un De Sceaux returns to Britain for the first time since his tremendous display in the Arkle. Over at Haydock good novice and champion hurdle trials plus the gruelling Peter Marsh Chase.
Warwick has passed the morning inspection and we will be concentrating on two of their televised races. The going is heavy and a sunny afternoon is forecast.
1.50 Warwick Hampton Novices´ Chase (Listed Race)
Only five line up for the £23,000 prize money, but they all have their merits.
Mullins trained Black Hercules looks sure to be at short odds to follow up his impressive win at Navan on chase debut. Beat the stables other runner in commanding style.A proven stayer who will be difficult to beat. 4/6 on my tissue, which is around the current odds.
Emily Gray ran an excellent second at Doncaster behind Ma Filleule on latest start and is of some interest. Her bare form puts her in with a realistic chance, although her ability to stay this trip is a concern as she has never gone further than 2m 5f before. 6/1 generally and 9/2 on my tissue
Born Survivor was an expensive purchase from the Irish PTP field and made quite an impression on his December debut for the Skelton yard over today’s course & distance.
Bought for £220,000 in the April sales by Richard Kelvin-Hughes who said: “This horse will need a bit of time, but he’s a proper horse and one for the future. We were alerted to him a couple of days ago. He’s the sort of horse we like, but unfortunately so does everyone else, which pushes the price up.”
That debut form looks solid and further improvement is expected.
Born Survivor at the sales
The Irish challenge is spearheaded by the Mullins pair: Open Eagle and Thomas Hobson. Anything travelling from this yard has to be given respect. But one that catches the eye and could be some value is Final Nudge who is progressing well. Has won twice this season in heavy ground before running a good second in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham. Currently around 8/1, which seems fair.
However Born Survivor is a very decent prospect who I would expect to take plenty of beating. 2/1 on my tissue.
An interesting day of racing away from the high profile tracks.
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Very little of appeal so far this week from the three cards that survived the weather.
Just Huntingdon for us today. The biggest prize of the day is for the Juvenile Hurdle at 2.50. The market for this Class 2 event being dominated by the long odds-on Sceau Royal, who won his Triumph Hurdle trial quite decisively at Cheltenham last month.
The 3.20 looks interesting with current favourite Three Faces West making his chase debut. Whilst second in, Ubak, has a second run over the bigger obstacles after a good debut in November.
Ubak landing a surprise victory at Aintree.
Following his surprise win at Aintree Gary Moore described him as ‘a three-mile chase in the making.’
My tissue prices for the race are:
9/4 Three Faces West
4/1 Ubak
9/2 L’Unique
9/2 Buckhorn Timothy
6/1 Ballyboley
As you can see, it is a tight little handicap that should prove an compelling contest.
Just the two turf meetings for us tomorrow, with Channel 4 showing three races from both Warwick and Wetherby, plus one from the All Weather at Chelmsford.
The ground for both meetings of interest is currently reported as heavy.
Will be putting plenty of work in and back tomorrow morning with a preview.
Three Grade 1 races at Kempton this afternoon. We are going to study two of them. A dry day is forecast after light rain overnight. The official going is Good to Soft.
My tissue prices for both races are shown in brackets.
2.00 Kempton Kauto Star Novices´ Chase (In Memory of Nigel Clark) (formerly the Feltham Novices Chase) (Grade 1)
Southfield Royale is a noted horse who remains progressive and the softer ground conditions could be in his favour. However he does tend to jump left-handed and could be disadvantaged at this track. (5/1)
Native River stayed on well to win on latest start in a Grade 2 at Newbury. Although the comparative ease of this victory could be questioned as the runner-up found little for pressure. (5/2)
Bally Beaufort is a promising stayer who steps up in grade. Won well when we strongly backed him on last appearance at Aintree. Testing ground would put him in the mix. (8/1)
Tea For Two was very impressive on chase debut when winning on heavy ground at Exeter at the start of the month. His regular jockey Lizzie Kelly cannot claim her allowance in this class of race, although that was also the case on latest start. Has to prove he stays this trip, but running style suggests he should. (5/2)
My slight preference would be for Tea For Two but at the current odds on offer there is little value in this race.
Bally Beaufort (right) and Ryan Hatch winning at Aintree
3.10 Kempton King George VI Chase (Grade 1)
Vautour was highly impressive when winning at the Cheltenham Festival and is expected to progress from his reappearance outing at Ascot last month. He has to prove he stays this trip. (5/1)
Don Cossack looks top class and I wouldn’t oppose him lightly. Has had two bloodless victories in Ireland this season after finishing the last campaign by winning a Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival with Cue Card a distant fourth. (3/1)
Cue Card’s emphatic defeat of Silviniaco Conti at Haydock underlined his excellent form and must go very close. (3/1)
Al Ferof recently moved to Dan Skelton and comprehensively returned to his best on first start for his new stable. Three miles looks to stretch his stamina. (8/1)
Smad Place was a big price winner for us when running away with the Hennessy. Steps up in grade and needs to improve again to get involved here. (8/1)
I have Don Cossack and Cue Card as my joint favourites. At the current prices on offer, Cue Card is the preference.
Cue Card preferred today
My best wishes for the new year.
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Two races for us this afternoon, both at Ascot. A mild day forecast with the going declared as good to soft. In the afternoon temperature of 14c and a light southerly wind, the ground will be drying.
2.25 Ascot JLT Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1)
Thistlecrack is the horse on the upgrade and heads the market with the majority of layers.
It is difficult to gauge the merit of his latest win at Newbury with both Cole Harden and Whisper running poor races.
Saphir Du Rheu reverts to hurdles after running in the Hennessy. Finished a distant fifth and weakened near the end. A drop of 2f from that Newbury run today.
He ties in closely with Reve De Sivola, who has won the last three runnings of this event.
Reve De Sivola has had the same preparation as last year, having run in France before coming here.
There is every chance he retains most of his ability and at the current 9/2 he would make some appeal. The softer the ground the better.
Reve De Sivola winner of the Long Walk Hurdle for the past three years
3.00 Ascot Sodexo Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Listed Race)
Worth trying to spot some value in this wide open handicap.
Bottom weight Gullinbursti is on a fair mark. Returns after a long absence. Has gone well fresh in the past
Currently 14/1 generally and 16/1 in places. Worth consideration.
Gullinbursti on a fair handicap mark
My best wishes for Christmas and the new year
Professional backer – Horse Racing Advisory Service
