Further light rain forecast at Cheltenham this morning and dry, with a strong south-westerly breeze this afternoon. One race to look at from the Gloucstershire course.

1.50 Cheltenham Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (A Handicap Chase) (Grade 3)

Plenty of the runners tie-in on form and are fairly exposed, six of them ran in the Paddy Power in mid-November.

Buywise is one of these and if he can put in a clean round of jumping he can come out top of that half-dozen.

Tenor Nivernais impressed when winning at Ascot on his only start so far this season. Drew clear from his rivals to win by a long margin on soft ground. A reproduction of that effort gives him every chance.
He has proved to be inconsistent in the past but with the Venetia Williams stable in fine form, he has to be seriously considered.

Champagne West returns after ten months out from an injury and is of interest, being unexposed over fences. Twice a winner at this track last season when partnered by Richard Johnson. However it is slightly disconcerting that Johnson has chosen to ride stablemate Village Vic this afternoon.

The current 8/1 the field indicates how wide open this race is. I am inclined to take a different approach to many and look outside of the Paddy Power form.

Tenor Nivanais[11/1] and Champagne West[10/1] are two that I would keep onside.

Engaging day of racing ahead. Channel 4 have eight races from Sandown and Aintree plus on the ‘undercard’ we have fixtures from Chepstow and Wetherby. The dominant factor today will be the going. The three English venues report their ground in varying degrees of soft, whilst the Welsh track will be unsurprisingly heavy; given its close proximity to the River Wye and the extreme rainfall this week.
As I explained in yesterday’s blog, extreme weights in testing conditions can be the undoing of even the most well touted horses. The adage that in testing conditions every 1lb over 11.7 seems like 2lb was amplified yesterday by the defeats, for example, of the long odds-on Never Says Never (11.9) along with Proofreader (11.9) and De Faoithesdream (12.3). It is a factor to bear in mind today when getting involved.
Today we look at two feature races, both from Aintree.

1.40 Aintree Becher Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

3m 1f race run over the Grand National course in which Saint Are looks sure to go well.
Had a ‘prep’ in cross-country race at Cheltenham, where he ran out of steam eight from home and then stayed on at the same pace. 5 furlongs shorter and 5 lbs lighter at 11.2 today.
Second in the 2015 National, he has an excellent record at the track. Prior to that he had won convincingly at Catterick, one of his rare visits away from the top grade courses.
Modification to the fences at Aintree ensures these races are not the lottery they once were.
As you would expect, a very open race, but odds of 8/1 or more make some appeal.

3.20 Aintree Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (CLASS 2)

Another contest on the Grand National course, this time over 2m 5f.
Double Ross looks to have returned to near his best, having run an excellent 4th in the Paddy Power at Cheltenham.
Today will be the 9y.o.’s 33rd career race for trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies having run once in Ireland before arriving at the Gloucester yard, where he has won over £200,000 in prize money.
Has creditable course experience having finished fifth in last year’s Topham.
Fairly handicapped with Ryan Hatch claiming 3lb and expected to figure.
The popular gutsy performer is market leader at around 5/1, which is how I see it.

Our focus this afternoon is on two races. Firstly an interesting handicap chase at Doncaster and then the big race of the day, the Hennessy.

1.55 Doncaster betdaq.com 50% Commission Refund Novices´ Limited Handicap Chase (CLASS 3)

Tight handicap with the JP McManus owned Jack Steel heading the market at a general 5/2.
The 5yo fulfilled earlier promise when winning on chasing debut at Ayr.
He basically jumped well, although to his right, but hopefully this will improve with experience.
Although taking on stronger opposition, he is expected to continue his progression.
I have him in at 4/1 on my provisional tissue.

3.00 Newbury Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3)

Whilst many races have seen their name change as sponsors come and go, the Hennessy has had no such changes of identity since the first running in 1957.

My prices are shown in brackets.
Saphir Du Rheu [9/2] impressed on latest start when beating The Young Master[10/1].On today’s terms there should be little between them.

Bobs Worth[8/1] is “thrown in” if retaining a fraction of his old ability, although I’m not sure his hurdle success at Aintree confirms that he does.

Smad Place[7/1] had a wind operation over the summer and impressed me on his reappearance at Kempton where he stayed on strongly to win unchallenged.
Conditions are fine for him and he is expected to run a big race. The 8yo grey has had three career runs at Newbury, winning twice.
Smad Place would be my pick. Currently best priced 8/1.

Two feature races to look at this afternoon, both part of Channel 4’s seven race coverage from Ascot and Haydock. Heavy rain is expected in the morning in the south whilst we have a cold but dry day in the north-west. Our races are both at Haydock, their two richest events of the day. Conditions are expected to be on the testing side at both courses.

1.50 Haydock Betfair Price Rush Hurdle

Briefly touched upon Irving a few weeks ago prior to his seasonal outing.
He had a breathing op during the summer and returned to his best when winning at Wincanton. That performance sets a high standard here.
Very testing ground has to be a slight concern but a repeat of that Wincanton run will make him very difficult to beat. I have him in at 11/10 on my provisional tissue.

3.00 Haydock Betfair Chase (Grade 1)

A peak form Silviniaco Conti will be hard to beat. His victory in this race last year was a controlled display in soft ground. Which he then repeated in the King George. The forecast going for this afternoon is similar. Currently quoted in the 5/6 by most firms, he makes no appeal at odds-on.
A case can be made for all of the opposition and I think he may drift in the market. Somewhere around 11/8 to 6/4 wouldn’t surprise me.
Silviniaco Conti is often described by the cricketing phrase: ‘flat track bully’ – an anthropomorphic viewpoint of giving human characteristics to animals, one I find ridiculous. A flat track may suit him because of his running style, nothing to do with being a bully.

As a full-time professional of many years genuine value has always been the dominant factor in my betting. My philosophy is: ‘Everything revolves around value.’
This week has been a prominent example. I price up every race of interest to me (a lot after initial evaluation are not.)
To give three examples: On Thursday Alder Mairi was quoted a best 11/8 in places and a general 5/4. Despite the broken stirrup, won like the long odds-on shot I firmly believed she was.
Yesterday as I explained in this blog, although Minella Rocco is a horse with a promising future; he was never worthy of an 8/13 quote. Despite coming home third in a three horse race, that experience may temper some hype but prove beneficial in the coming months. The other from the day was Winner Massagot who was on a fair mark on his handicap debut. As I told my clients, I rated him as a 4/1 chance and he returned a 7/1 winner.
In evaluating any financial market you must have a line which tells you when to go in and when to stay away. A lot of rubbish is talked by so called racing experts about value, but if you don’t have that dividing line you just become prey to the bookmakers.

Yesterday at Cheltenham we saw two more examples of trainers getting horses to peak winning condition after long lay-offs. This is something that was a rarity in the past, but with the equipment and expertise available to yards it is now a factor any backer has to bring into their assessment.
More Of That returned after just on a year away and A Hare Breath close on two years. The latter having been backed to joint favourite before drifting out to a 6/1 S.P. as the race approached.
The race I am concentrating on this afternoon is the final one shown on Channel 4 from their six race coverage from Wetherby and Cheltenham.
Cheltenham 3.35 Martin & Co Jewellers Intermediate Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 3)
Champagne Express is of interest on handicap and seasonal debut. After two Irish points outings during 2014 he had two runs at the back end of last season.
Form of his novice win at Chepstow is solid and he ran to a similar level when third at Newbury. He looked ‘green’ on his final run; being from the Henderson yard we can expect that he has been well prepared for today’s test. Further progression is expected and the softening ground should not be a problem.
The three Irish based challengers have to be respected and there are lightly raced rivals also capable of improvement.
However I would be disappointed if Champagne Express doesn’t figure.
Looks a 5/1 the field race.

Great three days of action from Cheltenham starts today with the ground reported as good. Plenty making their seasonal debuts, so there is a ‘look and learn’ element to the opening day.
In the 3.25, two horses stand out as being well handicapped are A Hare Breath and Trendsetter.
A Hare Breath has not been seen on the track since December 2013. Having his first run for the up and coming Ben Pauling yard today, who trains just 17 miles from Prestbury Park.
Conversely, Trendsetter has been campaigned on the flat this summer, picking up a victory at Chester at the end of May.
Difficult race to price accurately, but these two are worth keeping onside.

Back tomorrow with a fuller look at one of the feature races.

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