Tag Archives: ascot

Ascot value

February 18, 2017 Steve Lewis Hamilton

Three really good meetings today after a fairly uninspiring week of racing. Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton all report varying degrees of soft ground. Two races from Ascot to look at:

1.15 Ascot 2m3½f Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle (Class 2)

Beyond Conceit impressed when returning from a long absence on hurdles debut. Just a slight cause for concern was the poor performances of Nicky Henderson’s runners yesterday.

Tintern Theatre looks overpriced at the current 14/1 on general offer and 16/1 in places.

Five of the other seven contenders are capable of improvement.

Will prove to be a highly informative race for the future.

I price the main contenders as follows:

Beyond Conceit 9/4

Topofthegame 4/1

Acting Lass 6/1

De Dollar Man 7/1

Tintern Theatre 7/1

Criq Rock 7/1

2.25 Ascot 3m Keltbray Swinley Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race) (Class 1)

A case can be made for all seven.

The improving Go Conquer is just preferred. Last seen on the track when second at the Kempton Christmas meeting in another valuable handicap.

Chef D’Oeuvre won unchallenged on desperate ground at Hereford and that piece of form is difficult to evaluate.

Tenor Nivernais ran well over c/d three starts ago. Essentially a 2m 6f horse who would have to make this his first ever win over 3m. At the 8/1 on offer worth considering a win only value bet.

On my private tissue I price them:

Go Conquer 7/2

Tenor Nivernais 9/2

Chef D’ Oeuvre 9/2

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horse racing

Fascinating but no value

December 17, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Fascinating day of racing. However, there is little value to be had. For me it will be mainly a watching brief today.As a professional, there is no point in having bets just for the sake of it. There will be better opportunities along the way.

Quick look at two races from Ascot.

1.15:

My prices for the top three

Top Notch 1/1

Hammersly Lake 4/1

Caid Du Berlais 4/1

Top Notch is the best horse, has to prove he gets the trip.

2.25:

Loath to oppose Unowhatimeanharry. Deserves to be at short odds.

French raider Alex De Larredya looked a classy prospect on last outing.

Will be back for our final blog of the year on boxing day.

Hope you have a good Christmas.

horse racing

Friday 16th update

December 16, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Going to quickly go through my notes for four races at Ascot this afternoon.

1.20: Back By Midnight impressed last time but needs to get more fluency into his jumping. Two potential dangers if he doesn’t cause his own problems are Mr Spingspong and Red Devil Star. Both of which in varying degress need to get back old form.

Mr Spingspong has his first start for Brian Ellison. Favourably handicapped if the switch reinvigorates the 9y.o. Has conditions to suit.

Red Devil Star finished third to Back By Midnight last time which was a slight disappointment on his promising second at Wincanton the run before.

1.55: A race worth noting as all six can improve. Captain Forez of most interest. His debut at Newbury suggested he could make up to be a decent performer.

2.30: Politologue 11/10 my tissue. Not as clear cut as the market currently suggests.

3.05: Ballyarthur is progressive. But too short at the current 7/4. 5/2 my tissue.

Back tomorrow just after 12.00.

horse racing

16/1 Favorite!

November 18, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Two races for us at Ascot this afternoon where the going is Good to Soft. The other two jump cards at Haydock and Ffos Las are more exposed to the bad weather and the ground at both could deteriorate considerably.

2.45 Ascot

Three runners return from a break including The Clock Leary, who is fairly handicapped. He comes from the Venetia Williams yard who have had two winners from five runners this week. A stable who seem to specialise in horses who like a bit of extra cut in the ground.

Fox Appeal has been below form on his last two starts, but will appreciate a return to a right-hand track.

Present Man form is slightly suspect and he hasn’t always found for pressure.

Difficult race to evaluate with total confidence but I would keep The Clock Leary onside. I make him the 3/1 fav.

3.55 Ascot

A lot of unknown quantities to this race, not least the market leader Cyrname making his British debut after three races in France, the last of those being ten months ago.

Favorite Girl won on the flat recently and looks overpriced. The current 16/1 offers some value.

Poor quality and changing ground have been key contributors to the lack of decent betting opportunities so far this week. However we have had one bet, a strong one for a very impressive winner whose progress I will be following.

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horse racing

Comeback Jack?

October 15, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Champions Day and we are going to look at five races from Ascot. The richest race day of the flat season with £4.2 million prize money on offer. The going is Good and showers are forecast.

1.25 Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2)

We start with a 2 miler for 3 y.o.’s and over

Order Of St George sets a high standard. However that is reflected in his market price.

Having had a hard race in the Arc under a fortnight ago I would be wary of getting involved at very short odds.

I have them priced as follows:

Order Of St. George 5/4

Simple Verse 5/1

Forgotten Rules 10/1

Quest For More 10/1

14/1 Bar

2.00 Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1)

Two to look at in this wide open 6f sprint.

Twilight Son is a noted horse from last season who is expected to figure.

Signs Of Blessing form ties in with Twilight Son and he can go well at double figure odds.

I have it 5/1 the field which is slightly above the best on the current market and provisionally go the two mentioned as:

Twilight Son 13/2

Signs Of Blessing 11/1

3.10 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1)

Minding and Ribchester deservedly head the market as they contest for the winner’s prize of just over £650,000.

Around 8/11 the pair coupled looks about right and it’s a no play race for me.

3.45 Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1)

Close on three-quarters of a million for the winner.

There are good vibes concerning Jack Hobbs who is a previously noted horse. Last year’s Irish Derby winner returns after a five and a half month lay-off.

Almanzor has already beaten Arc winner Found and is a worthy favourite.

My tissue:

Almanzor 7/4

Found 3/1

Jack Hobbs 10/1

Fascinating 10/1

4.25 Balmoral Handicap (CLASS 2)

Wide open high class handicap where top weight GM Hopkins can figure on a course he habitually runs well at. Currently heads the market at a best priced 8/1.

A great day of racing, which I hope you enjoy.

horse racing

Spring day?

October 1, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Three races for us this afternoon. We start at Ascot where the going is Good and then onto Newmarket who have Good to Firm ground. Rain is expected at both courses this afternoon.

Ascot 2.30 Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3)

The three oldest horses in the field of nine are the market leaders.

Arab Spring returned to near his best with an impressive win at Kempton.

At his best Western Hymn would have every chance, but he has been below form on his last couple of starts.

Kings Fete could be the main danger to Arab Spring.

All three horses will handle any easing of the ground.

The market looks about right. My provisional tissue:

Arab Spring 3/1

Kings Fete 4/1

Western Hymn 5/1

Move Up 8/1

12/1 Bar

3.05 Ascot John Guest Bengough Stakes (Group 3)

High class 2yo Shalaa makes his seasonal reappearance. Unbeaten in all of his last five starts.

Well documented reports suggest he has recovered well from a pelvic injury.

Softening ground not a problem. Would be good to see him return to his best.

Currently the general 2/1 favourite.

4.00 Newmarket Sun Chariot Stakes (Group 1)

Confined to fillies and mares, with a quarter of a million pounds on offer in prize money.

Alice Springs put a disappointing performance in France behind her with an impressive win at Leopardstown. That win confirms she is effective on easy and fast ground.

A reproduction of that form sets a high standard.

French challengers Ervedya [first time cheek-pieces] and Volta[first time tongue-tie] are the form dangers.

I price the main contenders as follows:

Alice Springs 6/4

Ervedya 5/1

Volta 5/1

12/1 Bar

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Donjuan to score?

September 3, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

The arrival time of the bands of rain sweeping across the country will be an added factor this afternoon. Ascot should get a relatively clear run before arrival but Haydock is already seeing the first wave.

3.10 Ascot Appletiser Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2)

Richest race on the card with £100,000 in prize money for the twelve declared to contest.

Stargazer was noted on latest start at Goodwood over 10f. He stayed on well after having to race wide on the track. Steps up to 12f today which is expected to bring further improvement.

Although there are a few other possible improvers in the opposition, I would be surprised if Stargazer doesn’t go very close. On my provisional tissue below I have him the same as the general price on offer. Not value enough for me in a competitive handicap:

Stargazer 5/2

Dal Harraild 11/2

10/1 bar

4.30 Haydock 32Red Sprint Cup Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1)

As things stand by the time we get to this race, Haydock will have been at the centre of the rainband as it passes east. Haydock does not drain as easily as many other courses. Until we see the extent and depth of the heavy rain forecast it is not possible to accurately price this race. Also we could lose the favourite should the conditions be too soft.

Looking at a few of the contenders and their preferred conditions:

Limato’s prospects depend on the ground staying good – softer ground will lessen his chance. For me the 9/4 favourite on good and a drifter on a slower surface.

Quiet Reflection will be suited by easing ground, and must go very close.

Donjuan Triumphant is expected to go well at double figure odds if the forecast rains arrive.

Provisionally pricing on good to soft – soft ground, I go: Quiet Refection 5/1, Donjuan Triumphant 14/1.

horse racing

Not so fantastic Friday

September 2, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Unappealing days racing with modest maidens and tightly knit handicaps. Tomorrow’s cards hold much greater appeal.

We are going to quickly look at two races:

Ascot 2.35: Harwoods Volante has been gradually returning to his best and looks sure to go well in an open race. He was just touched off at Leicester last week after pulling hard early on. I don’t anticipate the drop to 6f from 7f to prove an issue.

Cases can be made for half this field, but I would be surprised if Harwoods Volante doesn’t run well. 5/1 on my provisional tissue.

Haydock 4.30: El Vip heads the market and looks sure to improve. However I am always suspicious of ‘One start – One win’ horses immediately moving into competitive handicaps.

In time El Vip may prove to be a higher class animal than this opposition, but experience counts for a great deal and he makes limited appeal at the current 7/4. I rate him more like a 3/1 chance.

Very good week so far with both of our highest strength bets being successful. A profitable lay at 2.1 and a 3/1 winner from our only bet yesterday. For your free information pack go to: www.slh.co.uk Introductory membership terms now available.

Back tomorrow.

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Reel deal today?

July 23, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Two major races for us this afternoon at York and Ascot respectively. Good to Firm at both courses and watering has taken place. There is a common theme in both races – a reversal of form from that experienced in the testing conditions endured from a few weeks back. Most notably at Royal Ascot and at the Sandown Eclipse meeting. As we have already seen recently, some of that form can have a line drawn through it now we are back to more customary mid-summer ground.

3.35 York Sky Bet York Stakes (Group 2)

Although Time Test sets the standard on the best of his form, odds of 2/5-4/11 are prohibitive. Ground conditions weren’t suitable in the Eclipse, but that was still a disappointing run. A return to the imperious Royal Ascot form of 2015 would be worth the admission money.

As his trainer Roger Charlton reported: “He’s come out of Sandown well and he’s in good form,” His best performances have been on fast ground and he hasn’t really had it like this since Royal Ascot last year. We take each race as it comes but the Juddmonte would be a natural follow-on from this race.”

Commenting on stablemate Countermeasure who set the pace in the Eclipse and lines up against Time Test today: “Countermeasure has always run from the front and he’ll do it again at York. A good pace is important for Time Test, but then it is for all of them. It’s a small field and we don’t want a messy race.”

With only 5 runners I can’t see any great betting angle into this race.

I price the race as follows:

Time Test 1/2

Mahsoob 6/1

Air Pilot 10/1

Mondialiste 10/1

Counterm 100/1

4.30 Ascot King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored by Qipco) (Group 1)

Despite sweating up before the start of the Hardwicke, racing arkwardly and Seamie Heffernan dropping the whip, Highland Reel was just held by Dartmouth in a duelling finish.

I expect Highland Reel with Ryan Moore now on board to reverse the Ascot form. Heffernan takes the ride on AP O’Brien’s other entry, Sir Isaac Newton.

Wings Of Desire ran well to finish a creditable fourth in the Derby and can progress.

Erupt caught the eye on latest start at Saint-Cloud, where never nearer than at the finish in a slowly run race.

Just on £700, 000 to the winner alone and prize money goes down to sixth place.

My prices are:

Highland Reel 5/2

Dartmouth 7/2

Erupt 9/2

Wings Of Desire 9/2

Sir Isaac Newton 10/1

33/1 Bar

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Making Plans For Nigel

May 6, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Five British turf meetings for us today with good ground at all of them.

We start this afternoon at Market Rasen with Detour Ahead in the 2.50. After a long absence she hinted at a return to form last time at Bangor having been pulled up on her two return outings. Steps up in grade today and has winning form on good ground.

I make her 4/1 on my private tissue.

Our next race is the opener from this evening’s card at Ascot. Nigel is a horse I noted early last year. He failed to deliver on the promise shown despite being a warm order in the market on a number of occasions.

Has recently moved from the John Gosden yard to Richard Hughes in Upper Lambourn. Steps up in distance to 2 miles and is worth a look.

Difficult race to price accurately. The bookmakers are going a cautious 9/2.

Back tomorrow morning when we have Ascot and Haydock as the highlights.

Professional backer – Horse Racing Advisory Service