Tag Archives: cheltenham festival

Support the stable staff

March 10, 2018 Steve Lewis Hamilton

Concentrating on the big race of the day at Sandown; the Imperial Cup. A race with a long history dating back to 1907. Until the launch of the Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival it was regarded as the most important hurdle of the jumps season.

Our special Cheltenham membership is available from today. It includes a comprehensive Festival preview which will also be sent today. More details about both below.

2.25 2m Matchbook Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Whatswrongwithyou impressed when winning at Newbury and falls into the category of “could be anything”. It was the manner of that victory rather than the substance of the form.

However he hasn’t been missed in the market. The general 7/2 on offer in a seventeen runner highly competitive handicap makes little appeal.

Master Of Irony was noted on his latest start, being never nearer than at the finish in a slowly run race at Newbury.

He handles today’s conditions and with Richard Johnson back in the saddle (he rode him when winning at Wetherby) and a big run is expected. Presently quoted around the 10/1 mark.

2018 Cheltenham Festival

The Festival starts this Tuesday and I will again be supporting the stable staff through our Cheltenham Festival preview and special membership package. You will get:

– The Cheltenham Preview featuring my analysis of the home trained runners and the Irish challengers from top Irish racing expert, Donn McClean.
Plus contributions from Britain’s leading racing commentators, John Hunt from the BBC and ITV’s Richard Hoiles.

– Exclusive list of horses to follow, with comments, from the Lambourn trainers. Nicky Henderson avoids the obvious with a one at a backable price.

– Full access to my bets and analysis from today to Sunday 19th March.

During the 2017 Cheltenham special membership period on all Private bets we achieved a 57% success rate and a rewarding 125% profit on stakes invested. The selective exchange bets also added to the overall profits with a 5/1 winner.

The full preview and membership package is just £25 when you order now. All of your £25 goes to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered Charity No. 1049742). The Trust provide affordable homes for stable staff their families. Helping to keep vital stable staff in racing.

horse racing

Dee target

February 24, 2018 Steve Lewis Hamilton

Three jump meetings on what will be a particularly cold Saturday afternoon. We are going to briefly look at three races from Kempton. They report their going as Good to Soft, but the covers set down on Thursday are still to come off. I will be getting a more accurate going report direct from one of my senior contacts later this morning. Whilst Kempton is a free draining track the covers can deaden the ground and that will be an important point when I get my own report.

Today’s Kempton card is one of the last meetings with trials for the Cheltenham Festival now just over a fortnight away.

1.50 2m4½f Betdaq Now 2% Commission Pendil Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Cyrname deserves to be at short odds. I have him in at 4/7 on my private tissue.

Excellent jumper and expected to be a player at the Spring festivals.

2.25 2m (Winter) Betdaq #ChangingForTheBettor Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4yo)

Redicean is at short odds after impressing in his two successes.

However his jumping needs to improve, the bare form of his wins isn’t solid.

I would want odds against before contemplating involvement. Currently around 4/5 in the early markets.

3.35 3m Betdaq Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Wide open affair in which Master Dee is expected to go well.

This has been the target and conditions will suit.

Presently on offer at 7/1 with some 15/2 in places.

2018 Cheltenham Festival

I will again be supporting the stable staff through our Cheltenham Festival preview and special membership package. You will get:

– Exclusive list of horses to follow, with comments, from the Lambourn trainers. Nicky Henderson, Henry Candy and Oliver Sherwood are regular contributors.

– Full access to my bets and analysis for the ten day period Friday 9th to Sunday 19th March.

The preview and a special ten day membership is now available at: http://www.slh.co.uk/2018-cheltenham-special/

Click on the link for more details and to secure your place now.

My thanks to everyone who has already taken advantage of the advance booking offer, your donations are greatly appreciated.

horse racing

Eyes right

February 17, 2018 Steve Lewis Hamilton

As seems to be the case for quite a while, the weather forecast has to be studied almost as carefully as the form. Today the block capitals HEAVY loom large in the going reports for all three jump meetings. We are set for a dry day with temperatures nudging towards double figures in the south. Therefore we are likely to see the ground drying as the afternoon progresses. It will be a factor.

We are concentrating on the Ascot card today starting with a stamina test.

2.25 3m Keltbray Swinley Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Early morning favourite Gold Present is now a non-runner leaving six to post.

Holly Bush Henry and Another Venture are the two that come into this race in form.

From a handicapping perspective a case can be made for the other three.

The horse in that list of most interest is last year’s winner of this race Tenor Nivernais.

He has been well beaten on all three starts since that impressive performance. However all three of those starts were on left handed tracks and he needs to go right handed.

On the same handicap mark as last year, a big run is expected.

My tissue:

Holly Bush Henry 10/3

Another Venture 10/3

Tenor Nivernais 9/2

7/1 Bar

3.00 2m3½f Ascot Spring Garden Show Handicap Hurdle (Class

2) (4yo+)

Dieg Man is expected to improve on first start in a handicap.

Kildisart has solid handicap form.

Both the Henderson runners, Fixe Le Cap and Stowaway Magic are reverting from chasing. The latter has attracted some market support this morning.

Friday Night Light improved on latest start, when runner up at Taunton earlier this month. Can improve further stepping up in trip. Currently a general 9/1.

My tissue:

Kildisart 4/1

Dieg Man 4/1

Friday Night Light 11/2

7/1 bar

2018 Cheltenham Festival

I will again be supporting the stable staff through our Cheltenham Festival preview and special membership package. You will get:

– Exclusive list of horses to follow, with comments, from the Lambourn trainers. Nicky Henderson, Henry Candy and Oliver Sherwood are regular contributors.

– Full access to my bets and analysis for the ten day period Friday 9th to Sunday 19th March.

The preview and a special ten day membership is now available at: http://www.slh.co.uk/2018-cheltenham-special/

Click on the link for more details and to secure your place now.

horse racing

14/1 Chance

February 3, 2018 Steve Lewis Hamilton

Two races from Sandown to look at today. The forecast going is on the good side of soft, which is in marked contrast to the heavier conditions experienced at most courses recently that have played a dominant role in my pricing and overall assessment of races.

1.15 1m7½f Betfred “Treble Odds On Lucky 15’s” Handicap Chase (Class 2) (5yo+)

Gino Trail and Big Jim should ensure this race is run at a good pace.

Difficult to access the level of form achieved by Dolos over fences with certainty, but his mark looks high enough.

Cepage stayed on well to finish second at Ascot in similar conditions. A reproduction of that effort gives him every chance here. Charlie Deutsch claims 3lb which is a positive.

Top Gamble is on a good handicap mark.

I price the field as follows:

Cepage 5/2

Top Gamble 7/2

Gino Trail 4/1

Dolos 6/1

Big Jim 6/1

Somchine 33/1

Currently the books all hover around the 3/1 mark for the top three in the market.

3.35 3m Betfred Mobile Masters Handicap Chase (Class 2) (5yo+)

Very open handicap.

Final Nudge will be suited by conditions and is on a fair mark. He is the 5/1 favourite with the majority of layers.

Quite By Chance has had a wind operation since last seen at Cheltenham on new year’s day. He has always given me the impression that longer distances could suit him best. At the 14/1 presently on offer, he is of interest.

2018 Cheltenham Festival

We are now just over five weeks away from the start of the 2018 Cheltenham Festival. I will once again be providing the Cheltenham preview and membership package with all funds going to support the stable staff.

For more information and to register for further details, please go to: http://www.slh.co.uk/racing-charity/

horse racing

Fine time

November 18, 2017 Steve Lewis Hamilton

Ideal jumping ground at all three of our meetings today from Cheltenham, Uttoxeter and Wetherby plus I will be keeping a watch on Punchestown where the ground will be a little more testing.

Day 2 of the Open meeting from Cheltenham and two races for us to look at this morning.

1.50 3m3½f (Old) BetVictor.com Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4yo+)

A difficult race to evaluate with many of these having later season targets. The Grand National being the main aim for most.

Doing Fine is the only horse coming into the race of the back of a good recent performance.

Although exposed he is expected to figure. A general 5/1 at present and a couple of firms are going a quarter odds the first three.

2.25 2m4½f (Old) BetVictor Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Eighteen declared with over £90,000 going to the winner.

Kylemore Lough and Ballyalton are the two of most interest.

Kylemore Lough is well handicapped, has conditions that suit and has been aimed at this race on his first start for Harry Fry.

Ballyalton also figures on a good handicap mark. He had a prep race over hurdles at Aintree just under three weeks ago and looks sure to go well.

Kylemore Lough is my provisional 6/1 favourite followed by Ballyalton at 8/1.

Best early prices for the pair are 13/2 and 11/1 respectively.

As always I will be getting reports direct from the courses throughout the morning before finalising betting plans and briefing my select group of members at noon today. Membership terms have been updated, see all the latest options and get your free information pack at: www.slh.co.uk

horse racing

Back from the USA

March 18, 2017 Steve Lewis Hamilton

Just the one race for us today at Kempton. The going is Good.

2.05 Kempton

Clic Work is progressive as shown by his two victories at Doncaster and Taunton. Not raced since that Taunton win at the end of January. However, he needs to sharpen up his jumping.

Hollybush Henry isn’t an easy ride though is on a fair mark.

Days Of Heaven is difficult to evaluate with last 2 starts being in the USA. He does have winning form at this course from around this time last year over 2m 4.5f.

I go:

Clic Work 7/4

Hollybush Henry 3/1

Days Of Heaven 4/1

Theatre Flame 11/2

Midtech Valentine 20/1

Clic Work is currently around 5/4 with the books, which looks on the skinny side.

Rock the WorldLooking back to the two races analysed yesterday on this blog. I wanted to be against Native River, who I felt needed to improve and was far too short in the market. I put him in at 10/1 and he finished a creditable third at 7/2.

In the Grand Annual I narrowed it down to three from the twenty four runners. The three all made the frame with Rock The World running out the 10/1 winner.

Finally my thanks to everyone who donated to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust. Your contribution will be put to good use in supporting the stable staff.

Our next special membership will be for the Grand National week. More details nearer the time on my website.

horse racing

Going Native?

March 17, 2017 Steve Lewis Hamilton

Final day of the festival and the going remains on the good side. A cloudy day is forecast and the south-westerly breeze should see the track slightly drying through the day. We start with the Gold Cup, which has had more headlines recently for the non-runners rather than those taking part.

3.30 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Cue Card’s form of last season would give him a great chance today.

However, despite recent successes he has yet to prove he retains that ability.

Djakadam and Outlander have little between them on form in Ireland.

Native River needs to improve and in my view is too short in the market.

It is a race I will be coming back to later for clients once I have had an update from one of my senior contacts. At present I price them as follows:

Cue Card 9/2

Djakadam 9/2

Outlander 9/2

Sizing John 8/1

Native River 10/1

Champagne West 14/1

16/1 bar

5.30 Grand Annual

A ‘Mission Impossible’ handicap to finish off the festival.

Last year’s 2nd and 3rd Rock The World and Dandrige are considered.

Nicky Henderson’s Theinval is just preferred. Currently a general 12/1.

A final word on the thrilling exhibition by Un De Sceaux yesterday which crowned an outstanding day for Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh. Many had been premature in casting doubts over the Mullins yard and the early prices on offer for Un De Sceaux were value – which we took full advantage of.

horse racing

Support the stable staff today

March 11, 2017 Steve Lewis Hamilton

We stay at Sandown for two more races today. The going remains on the good side to soft.

Cheltenham Festival preview is ready for immediate despatch and the special membership to Sunday 19^th starts today. Book your place and support the stable staff via: http://www.slh.co.uk/2017-cheltenham-festival/

2.25 Sandown

Wide open handicap, where Shanroe Santos could be a vulnerable favourite.

His jumping was less than fluent at Warwick and although that may improve, the current 11/4 is on the short side.

My provisional tissue:

Shanroe Santos 9/2

Upswing 9/2

Willoughby Hedge 9/2

Masters Hill 11/2

Fourth Act 11/2

14/1 bar

4.45 Sandown

Another trappy handicap to finish the card.

The hood was left off Alcala on latest start, when he was well beaten before falling two out. The headgear returns today but he is a very risky proposition.

Twenty Eight Guns continues to progress and Dance Floor King is running well.

Last year’s winner of this race Morning Reggie has been out of form since.

I price as follows:

Twenty Eight Guns 7/2

Dance Floor 7/2

Alcala 4/1

Gores Island 6/1

Morning Reggie 8/1

Aerlite Supreme 10/1

Each year at Cheltenham Festival time we raise much needed donations for the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered charity No. 1049742.) The trust build affordable homes for stable staff and their families. Helping to keep valuable experience and expertise in racing.

As the trust chairman explains: ‘There are many reasons for a successful yard and one of the most important is the staff. They are not as richly rewarded as we would like and we are always likely to lose key trained lads and lasses when they have just married. Quite rightly they want a home of their own together, but cannot afford to rent anything suitable.’

For just £25 you will get:

Cheltenham preview. I will be assessing the home challenge whilst leading Irish racing expert Donn McClean covers the Irish horses. Racing broadcaster of the year John Hunt also provides his insight as does lead ITV commentator Richard Hoiles plus we have the intriguing stats for trend analysts.
Exclusive list of horses to follow from the Lambourn trainers
Full access to my work as a professional backer from Saturday 11th to Sunday 19th March (Festival dates 14th – 17th)

All of your £25 goes to the trust.

You can also order the preview only for £10, again all of it goes to charity.

Secure your place now at: http://www.slh.co.uk/2017-cheltenham-festival/

horse racing

Rose vs Ardkilly

March 10, 2017 Steve Lewis Hamilton

Good side to Soft at Sandown where we look at two races. Also the Cheltenham Festival racing charity fundraiser is set to get going. The exclusive preview will be despatched this afternoon and by signing up now you will get your membership ready for tomorrow.

Sandown 3.05

Ardkilly Witness has a 5lb pull in the weights with Rathlin Rose on their C/D form from three weeks ago, when Rathlin Rose won pretty comfortably.

Ceasar Milan had been running well in PTP’s though was below form on his latest start.

Ardkilly Witness is suited by this track and is expected to run Rathlin Rose very close. But I would want the insurance of something closer to an each way price before getting too involved.

My provisional tissue:

Rathlin Rose 2/1

Ardkilly Witness 3/1

Ceasar Milan 7/2

Captain Guy Disney made history at Sandown Park on Friday 17 February by becoming the first person to win a race under Rules wearing a prosthetic limb.
The 34-year-old amateur jockey lost his lower right leg after being injured when a rocket-propelled grenade hit his vehicle, while serving with the Light Dragoons in Afghanistan in July 2009.
Having ridden beforehand, remarkably, it didn’t take long for Guy to be back in the saddle and nor did it take long for his desire to race-ride emerge.
Even though it took considerable effort to convince the British Horseracing Authority to approve his amateur licence, it was finally granted.
Partnering the David Pipe-trained Rathlin Rose, Guy rode to victory on Friday in the Royal Artillery Gold Cup — a race restricted to riders who have represented the Armed Forces.

Sandown 3.40

Kayf Adventure runs in his first handicap after impressing last time at Fontwell.

He looks progressive, but hasn’t been missed in the market.

However not a favourite I would oppose lightly.

In comparison Fly Camp, also making his handicap debut, looks on a high mark on form achieved.

I go:

Kayf Adventure 6/4

Fly Camp 13/2

Shaama 13/2

Midnight Sapphire 13/2

10/1 bar

Each year at Cheltenham Festival time we raise much needed donations to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered charity No. 1049742.) The trust build affordable homes for stable staff and their families. Helping to keep valuable experience and expertise in racing.

For just £25 you will get:

Cheltenham preview. I will be assessing the home challenge whilst leading Irish racing expert Donn McClean covers the Irish horses. Racing broadcaster of the year John Hunt also provides his insight as does lead ITV commentator Richard Hoiles plus we have the intriguing stats for trend analysts.
Exclusive list of horses to follow from the Lambourn trainers
Full access to my work as a professional backer from Saturday 11th to Sunday 19th March (Festival dates 14th – 17th)

All of your £25 goes to the trust.

Secure your place now at: http://www.slh.co.uk/2017-cheltenham-festival/

horse racing

Value, testing ground & the Festival…

March 4, 2017 Steve Lewis Hamilton

Yesterday’s blog underlined why having a clear line on true value is so important in successful long term professional backing. I had La Breuil in at evens favourite, the impressive winner touched 2/1 before returning an SP of 15/8. Despite the drift from an opening 13/8 – getting around 2/1 for an even money chance is clearly value. The same happened later at Newbury for a race I briefed my private clients about. I had Behind The Wire in at 5/2, he won strongly at an SP of 7/2 from 4/1.

I spend long hours analysing races and for me the only way to determine true value is by maintaining my own ratings and compiling my own prices, without recourse to the bookmaker odds. There is a lot of twaddle talked by so called experts about betting value. As a professional for many years, I know exactly what the word means in hard cash terms.

We stay at Newbury for another two races this afternoon. The ground has now eased to Soft with Heavy places for the hurdlers.

I am waiting on a course report from a senior contact, so at present all my prices are provisional. It will be be pretty testing out there and the bookmakers are being pretty defensive in their early pricing.

1.30 Newbury

Justification improved on latest start and has taken a 9lb hike in the ratings.

Western Climate runs in his first handicap having run well in a Hereford novice that is looking to be quite strong form.

Spice Fair is exposed, but ran second in this race last year and is expected to go well at big odds.

Hello George is of interest, being potentially well handicapped. He is very lightly raced and is expected to improve from his reappearance effort.

Hello George 5/1

Western Climate 11/2

Justification 11/2

Spice Fair 7/1

Willows Saviour 7/1

3.50 Newbury

Just the five declared for this tight 2m 0.5f handicap hurdle

Bol D’air won unchallenged at Plumpton and takes on stronger opposition here.

Vocaliser ran well on latest start but tends to hang and isn’t an easy ride.

Get Rhythm is worth keeping an eye on, although testing ground is a concern.

I have the five runners in at:

Bol D’air 2/1

Vocaliser 11/4

Get Rhythm 11/2

Knightly Pleasure 11/2

Three Colours Red 8/1

For just £25 you will get:

Cheltenham preview. I will be assessing the home challenge whilst leading Irish racing expert Donn McClean covers the Irish horses. Racing broadcaster of the year John Hunt also provides his insight as does lead ITV commentator Richard Hoiles plus we have the intriguing stats for trend analysts.
Exclusive list of horses to follow from the Lambourn trainers
Full access to my work as a professional backer from Saturday 11th to Sunday 19th March (Festival dates 14th – 17th)

All of your £25 goes to the trust.

Secure your place now at: http://www.slh.co.uk/2017-cheltenham-festival/

Professional backer – Horse Racing Advisory Service