Tag Archives: cheltenham festival

horse racing

Français double?

Day one of the Newbury Greatwood meeting with tomorrow’s Greatwood Gold Cup being the highlight. We are looking at two races from the course today. The going is Soft – Good to Soft in places on the chase course. The ground may ease again slightly with rain forecast before racing commences at 2.10.

Newbury 2.40

Le Breuil looked very impressive on latest start, with the form being sound.

Assuming that all’s well after an absence of just on four months, he sets a high standard here and should be competitive in a higher grade than this Class 4 event in the future.

I go:

Le Breuil   evens

Benatar     7/2

Woodfort  7/2

Le Breuil

Newbury 3.15

Plaisir D’Amour runs from the Venetia Williams stable, who are in great form. Moved from France last December and looks progressive.

Red Devil Star, Greybougg and Keep Moving are all reasonably handicapped.

My tissue:

Plaisir D’Amour 2/1

Red Devil  7/2

Greybougg 7/2

Keep Moving  11/2

12/1 bar

There is currently little value in the early markets for this tight little handicap.

 

2017 Cheltenham Festival

Each year at Cheltenham Festival time we raise much needed donations to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered charity No. 1049742.) The trust build affordable homes for stable staff and their families. Helping to keep valuable experience and expertise in racing.

As the trust chairman explains: ‘There are many reasons for a successful yard and one of the most important is the staff. They are not as richly rewarded as we would like and we are always likely to lose key trained lads and lasses when they have just married. Quite rightly they want a home of their own together, but cannot afford to rent anything suitable.’

For just £25 you will get:

  • Cheltenham preview. I will be assessing the home challenge whilst leading Irish racing expert Donn McClean covers the Irish horses. Racing broadcaster of the year John Hunt also provides his insight as does lead ITV commentator Richard Hoiles plus we have the intriguing stats for trend analysts.
  • Exclusive list of horses to follow from the Lambourn trainers
  • Full access to my work as a professional backer from Saturday 11th to Sunday 19th March (Festival dates 14th – 17th)

All of your £25 goes to the trust.

Secure your place now at: http://www.slh.co.uk/2017-cheltenham-festival/

horse racing

Theatre repeat?

Four graded races at Kempton where our concentration lies today. There are plenty of ‘ifs and buts’ to complicate the pricing of certain races. The going is Good and we are looking at two races:

Kempton 3.35   3m BetBright Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

 Wide open handicap in which thirteen declared contest for the near on £57,000 first prize.

Theatre Guide is expected to go well in a race he won last year. He is now 14lb higher in the handicap, but his Cheltenham win two starts ago gives him prospects here as the second top weight.

Currently quoted from 9/1 to a best priced 11/1 which looks about right range.

Theatre Guide (right)

Kempton 4.10   2m4f110y Watch Live Racing On betbright.com Handicap Chase (Class 3)

 Only Sir Note and Lemon’s Gent come into this race in form and both look beatable.

Full Shift figures on a lenient handicap mark if the first time “cheek-pieces+tongue-tie” have a positive effect. I put him in provisionally at 9/4 which is at the top end of the prices on offer.

 

Full Shift
2017 Cheltenham Festival

Each year at Cheltenham Festival time we raise much needed donations to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered charity No. 1049742.) The trust build affordable homes for stable staff and their families. Helping to keep valuable experience and expertise in racing.

As the trust chairman explains: ‘There are many reasons for a successful yard and one of the most important is the staff. They are not as richly rewarded as we would like and we are always likely to lose key trained lads and lasses when they have just married. Quite rightly they want a home of their own together, but cannot afford to rent anything suitable.’

For just £25 you will get:

  • Cheltenham preview. I will be assessing the home challenge whilst leading Irish racing expert Donn McClean covers the Irish horses. Racing broadcaster of the year John Hunt also provides his insight as does lead ITV commentator Richard Hoiles plus we have the intriguing stats for trend analysts.
  • Exclusive list of horses to follow from the Lambourn trainers
  • Full access to my work as a professional backer from Saturday 11th to Sunday 19th March (Festival dates 14th – 17th)

All of your £25 goes to the trust.

Secure your place now at: http://www.slh.co.uk/2017-cheltenham-festival/

horse racing

Cheltenham preview update

Two races for us at Warwick this afternoon and an important update on our Cheltenham Festival charity preview as main ITV commentator Richard Hoiles has kindly joined the contributors.

The going at Warwick is Soft and after yesterday’s beating from the storms, a relatively pleasant day is forecast.

2.00 Warwick

With form horses Coo Star Sivola and Global Stage having disappointed on their latest starts – a difficult race to assess.

Monsieur Co was beaten when left clear at the final hurdle, with that form looking suspect.

At current prices Coo Star Sivola is preferred.

I price the main players as follows.

Coo Star     7/4

Global        2/1

Monsieur Co 11/4

Coo Star Sivola

4.10 Warwick

This is a ‘hands and heels’ handicap hurdle for amateurs and conditionals – whips not to be used. Not the sort of race I would get too seriously involved with.

In theory William Money is thrown-in racing of a 15lb lower mark than when winning over fences 2 days ago. The question is whether he will transfer that form to hurdles.

Act Now is sure to run well but has not been missed by the handicapper.

Staunton has been needing this step up in trip and looks an e/w option. Best priced at 15/2 this morning.

On my private tissue I go:

William Money 11/10

Act Now 5/1

Staunton 5/1

10/1 bar

 

William Money

 

Each year at Cheltenham Festival time we raise much needed donations to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered charity No. 1049742.) The trust build affordable homes for stable staff and their families. Helping to keep valuable experience and expertise in racing.

As the trust chairman explains: ‘There are many reasons for a successful yard and one of the most important is the staff. They are not as richly rewarded as we would like and we are always likely to lose key trained lads and lasses when they have just married. Quite rightly they want a home of their own together, but cannot afford to rent anything suitable.’

For just £25 you will get:

  • Cheltenham preview. I will be assessing the home challenge whilst leading Irish racing expert Donn McClean covers the Irish horses. Racing broadcaster of the year John Hunt also provides his insight as does lead ITV commentator Richard Hoiles plus we have the intriguing stats for trend analysts.
  • Exclusive list of horses to follow from the Lambourn trainers
  • Full access to my work as a professional backer from Saturday 11th to Sunday 19th March (Festival dates 14th – 17th)

All of your £25 goes to the trust.

Secure your place now at: http://www.slh.co.uk/2017-cheltenham-festival/

 

 

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Intriguing Gold Cup

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Plenty of differing opinions and theories as we go in to a very tight looking Gold Cup this afternoon.

For me Cue Card is the value. The Tizzard yard have maintained a high level of consistency all season and I expect Cue Card to be spot on. Based on the King George run, I have Cue Card and Don Cossack on level pegging. There is the conjecture that if the latter had stood up he would have won.

Cue Card
Cue Card

The positive with Don Cossack is his staying strength, which is so important when tackling the uphill finish at Cheltenham. The negative is the need to niggle him along so he can get into a position to use that strength.

Both Donn and our stats man favour Don Cossack. As Donn says in the charity preview:

‘However, it may be that Don Cossack will shade it.  He probably would have won the King George had he not fallen at the second last fence, and that is the strongest piece of form around.  It is a cracking race, though.  It is the most fascinating race of the week, it is the most intriguing Gold Cup that we have seen in some time.’

Last year’s runner up Djakadam demands a lot of respect. Needs to improve and has the scope to do so. Don Poli has a bit more to find to be in contention.

My prices for the front three are:

Don Cossack
Don Cossack

Cue Card 5/2

Don Cossack 5/2

Djakadam 7/2

Last year Coneygree was the stand out value in the race. It is a lot tighter this year.

The Cheltenham preview and membership has proved a valuable asset with quite a few very good winners. For example: Minella Rocco (WON 8/1) and Diamond King (WON 12/1). Myself and Donn have also provided some nice forecasts as we respectively analysed the home and Irish challengers including an £208 Exacta.

Hope you enjoy another fantastic day of racing and I will be back tomorrow to look at a feature race or two.

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Cheltenham Preview

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Three meetings for us today and a quick look at one race from Ayr this afternoon.

Will be finalising the Cheltenham preview this weekend. If you want to order a copy and help a very worthwhile racing charity, all the details are on my website: www.slh.co.uk.

Online orders via:

Festival preview only: http://www.slh.co.uk/index.php/2016-cheltenham-festival-preview

Preview & Membership: http://www.slh.co.uk/index.php/chel-spec-2016

John Hunt has sent in a great piece which is well worth a read.

Pont Alexandre & Roi Des Francs
Pont Alexandre and Roi Des Francs jump together. Get John Hunt’s full Cheltenham thoughts by ordering the preview today.

In the Ayr 2.30, I noted Jumbo John when finishing third at Punchestown last month. I have him at 4/1 on my tissue, which is about the price he is with the books.

Back tomorrow with a look at one of the feature races.

 

 

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Cheltenham latest

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Two good cards for us from Doncaster and Newbury today and tomorrow.

Before looking at two races at Newbury, I want to bring you up to date with the latest Cheltenham arrangements.

2016 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL

Get the professional view and make a valuable donation to a very worthwhile racing charity.

From just £25 you will get:

– The Cheltenham preview from leading professional backer, Steve Lewis Hamilton and top Irish racing expert Donn McClean

– Exclusive contributions from Middleham trainer Micky Hammond and racing broadcaster of the year, John Hunt. Plus the telling stats from Paul O’Hara

– Horses to follow from the Lambourn trainers, including Nicky Henderson. Last year the list provided 14/1 winner, Cole Harden

– Access to Steve’s bets and information for the nine days, Saturday 12th to Sunday 20th March

Click here to book now

For more details about the services and the latest results, click here.

ALL OF YOUR £25 FEE GOES TO THE LAMBOURN VALLEY HOUSING TRUST (Registered Charity No. 1049742).

The Trust build affordable homes for stable staff and their families. Keeping vital staff in racing.

Douvan – Back or lay? Get the preview and discover more.
Douvan – Back or lay? Get the preview and discover more.

Back to this afternoon. In the opener, Favorito Buck’s is a warm order to get off the mark for Paul Nicholls since the 4 y.o.’s move from France. Disappointed on debut at Kempton in late December. Tongue-tie fitted and drop in class today. Difficult race to price with so many unknowns. Very recent arrival Lutece could be anything.

The favourite is currently quoted at 5/4. At that sort of price this is more a race to watch.

In the 5.05 Kilcullen Flem steps up to 3m on handicap debut and improvement is expected. I have him in as 7/2 co-fav on my tissue.

Back tomorrow morning with a look at the Saturday action. In the meantime have a look at my website for more on the special charity preview and membership.

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Support the stable staff

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Advance bookings for the Cheltenham Festival membership and preview now being taken.

The whole package costs £25, with all of your£25 going to racing charity.

For Cheltenham week we are offering you all my work on the Private and Exchange Services for the 9 day period Saturday 12th to Sunday 20th March. The Festival is from the 15th to 18th March.

Plus you will also get the exclusive Cheltenham preview from myself, top Irish racing expert Donn McLean and unique statistical analysis from Paul O’Hara. Plus there will also be guest contributions from a few racing names.

The preview also provides top class information direct from quite a number of the Lambourn trainers. For example, Nicky Henderson has four for you at the Festival plus another to follow late season. Whilst Jonathan Portman has two for the Flat campaign.

The whole package costs just £25 if you book now. We are looking to give all £25 to Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered Charity No 1049742). If you want the text service over the nine days there is a £2.50 supplement.

For more details and to book your place, go to: http://www.slh.co.uk/index.php/cheltenham-special-2016

The Trust build affordable houses for stable staff and their families. Retaining valuable and highly experienced staff within racing.

‘There are many reasons for a successful yard and one of the most important is the staff. They are not as richly rewarded as we would like and we are always likely to lose key trained lads and lasses when they have just married. Quite rightly they want a home of their own together, but cannot afford to rent anything suitable.’ – Peter Walwyn, Chairman of the Lambourn Valley Trainers Association

From last year’s preview of the Champion Chase: At the current prices my attention is drawn to the 5/1 on offer for the progressive Dodging Bullets.
From last year’s preview of the Champion Chase: At the current prices my attention is drawn to the 5/1 on offer for the progressive Dodging Bullets.

The ground is now starting to ease and we can expect bigger and better fields as trainers take advantage of the improving conditions. I have a few noted for their next run.

Back tomorrow for the three meetings Chepstown, Kempton and Newcastle.

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Support the Stable Staff

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Fakenham has passed its second morning inspection and there will be added interest as Victoria Pendleton rides in the Foxhunters Chase at 4.10.

Quick look at three races today. At Fakenham one that looks overpriced is Raise A Spark in the 2.30. Had every chance when falling on latest two starts. However, emphasis may be more on a clear round than competing with the current odds-on favourite.

The Sandown card has some appeal. In the 2.10 Blandfords Gunner returns after a good win at Leicester in early December. Expected to continue his progression. 3/1 on my tissue which is roughly in line with the current market.

The best race on the card is the 2.45. A Grade 2 in which Jessbess Dream makes a quick reappearance having finished second at Warwick last Saturday.

Katie Too heads the market. Unbeaten from her two runs this season. Whilst she impressed in her latest victory, the current 5/4 seems too short in a competitive race. I make her 3/1 on my provisional tissue.

Katie Too on her way to victory at Fontwell
Katie Too on her way to victory at Fontwell

Good week for us so far with both our bets being profitable. They have been a strong bet on a 20 length 7/4 winner and a successful lay of a 4/5 favourite.

Special memberships are now available. For more details go to: http://www.slh.co.uk/index.php/cheltenham-festival-2016

A good part of your membership fee will go towards supporting the stable staff.

horse racing

Festival Membership

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Since we lost the meetings at Lingfield and Ayr earlier in the week, the slight ease in the ground has permitted a full racing programme to go ahead in the past few days.

Today Catterick report their going to be Good to Soft whilst the more exposed Chepstow is again on heavy ground.

Not much inspiration from today’s cards. One race to look at is the 3.25 at Catterick. Irish import Just Georgie was noted as one Sue Smith could progress after two good showings in points.

Ran a decent second behind a long odds-on favourite on Boxing Day at Sedgefield. Will appreciate the better ground and is expected to figure today.

4/1 on my tissue and just a half point above that at present.

Bristol De mai
Bristol De Mai on the gallops

Tomorrow we have Tea For Two and Bristol De Mai  in opposition at Sandown. I will take an in-depth look on tomorrow’s blog post. Going conditions may be affected by the heavy rainfall forecast overnight.

3/1 winner yesterday made it seven winners from the last nine bets. Momentum is building as we head towards the Cheltenham Festival.

Special membership now available for you to share in my work. You can join now through to Cheltenham or go to the Aintree Grand National meeting. Fuller details by clicking here.

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Cheltenham Gold Cup

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Preview extracts for the premier event of the festival…

Many Clouds participation last year was abruptly ended when he was brought down in the RSA Chase. His improvement has been marked this year culminating with his Betbright Cup victory.

Whilst Coneygree  is inexperienced, his natural jumping ability could see him be crowned as the third successive 8 y.o. to lift the major crown of the meeting.

Djakadam is one of the most exciting horses in the Gold Cup line up, and he could run a massive race.  Willie Mullins’ gelding was travelling really well in the JLT Chase at last year’s Festival when he came down at the fourth last fence.

There is every chance that Djakadam will improve again between the Thyestes and Cheltenham, and as Long Run proved four years ago that it is possible in the modern era for a six-year-old to win the Gold Cup.

And on to the statistics…

Gold Cup – 10 Year Trends

Age 7 to 9 – 9 out of 10

All finished in the first 6 last time out

All were Grade 1 winners

First three in betting – 9 out of 10

Run in King George/Lexus chase – 9 out of 10 (exception won the Henessy)

Two to five runs in the season – 9 out of 10

No Irish Hennessy winner

None had won at the third attempt

Trends here would rule out favourite Silviniaco Conti, Carlingford Lough, Holywell, while virtually ruling out Many Clouds and  Djakadam, but they did run in the Hennessy. This leaves Road to Riches who has been one of the surprise packages of the season and an impressive winner of his last two. He’s been kept fresh for this and looks sure to go well.

A final mention has to be for last year’s winner Lord Windermere. If he was with Mullins, Nicholls or Henderson he would probably be half his odds. He has been prepared the same way as last year and you could argue he has ran better. It’s a horse with proven festival form and must rate a serious danger to all.