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horse racing

BFS

Final day of Glorious Goodwood which like the York Dante meeting earlier in the summer, has been affected by the adverse weather conditions.

The going has eased towards the good side of soft, so we may have some form today that can be carried forward. Thankfully the non-runner count is way below the epidemic of past days.

There are six meetings across Britain today, we are looking at one race this afternoon at Goodwood and then one this evening from Hamilton. Overall the day can be summed up as a BFS… Bookmaker Friendly Saturday!

 

3.00 Goodwood: 1m4f (1m3f218y) Qatar Gordon Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo)

Crystal Ocean and Khalidi set the form standard, although there are slight doubts concerning both.

Crystal Ocean finished behind Khalidi at Royal Ascot yet is favourite to reverse those placings.

Easier ground conditions are expected to suit Crystal Ocean and I don’t anticipate there being much between them at the finish.

Both Across Dubai and Mount Moriah impressed on their latest starts and look progressive.

I provisionally price the five runners:

Crystal Ocean  15/8

Khalidi   15/8

Across Dubai   8/1

Mount Moiah 10/1

Jake’s Hill  10/1

Khalidi wiining the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket

7.30 Hamilton 5f  British Stallion Studs EBF Soba Conditions Stakes (Class 3) (3yo+)

Glenrowan Rose is in excellent form and has a solid chance of beating the officially higher rated Alpha Delphini.

I see it as follows:

Glenrowan Rose  7/4

Alpha Delphini     2/1

10/1 bar

Glenrowan Rose

 

The compilers are at odds with one another with this one. For example Bet 365 go 11/8 and 6/4 in Glenrowan’s favour whereas Hill’s see quite the reverse. Unusual for the books not to be in close agreement.

Excellent day for members yesterday with three winners from three bets only. Special introductory membership terms are available for the remainder of the summer and for the York Ebor week starting 19th August.  Full details at: http://www.slh.co.uk/special-membership/

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horse racing

Goodwood bank

The going at Goodwood is Soft and there are again plenty of non-runners. I have provisionally looked at two races.

I will be getting a full going report later this morning from a senior contact at the course. The ground will unfortunately remain the dominant factor.

2.25 1m Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo)

Beat The Bank impressed on his latest start when winning a Listed race at Newmarket.

Has a solid chance of adding this Group 3 to his CV.

Again not proven on soft, although his action suggests it shouldn’t be an issue. 3/1 fav my provisional tissue which is in line with the books.

Beat The Bank winning at Newmarket

3.00 1m Betfred Mile Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+)

Four have come out, leaving eighteen to contest the £93,000 first prize.

Draw, ground and luck in-running will all play a significant part in the outcome of this highly competitive race.

Gm Hopkins continues to perform at a high level and if his jockey can manoeuvre a clear passage from stall 1 he is expected to go close.

 

Gm Hopkins

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horse racing

Success from the front

Six turf meetings today with all except Lingfield (Soft) reporting Good to Soft ground.

We are going to look at the premier races of the day from the cards at Ascot and York.

3.35 Ascot 1m4f  King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Qipco) (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo+)

My initial thoughts were that Enable was too short in the market, and I was looking to oppose her.

After thorough analysis I have come to the conclusion she deserves her position at the head of the market. However I can’t get her as short as the 11/8 currently on general offer.

Both her wins in the Epsom and Irish Oaks were very impressive, and there could well be further improvement to come. Ground conditions aren’t expected to be an issue.

Highland Reel, Jack Hobbs and Ulysses have all achieved a similar level of form when at their best.

My tissue:

Enable               13/8

Highland Reel   9/2

Jack Hobbs        9/2

Ulysses              9/2

20/1 bar

Enable

 

3.15 York 1m2½f  Sky Bet York Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Algometer has run consistently in his two Group races this season.

Success Days is a consistent front runner who is at his best on soft ground and would be my preference.

Hathal is a 5yo who is still unexposed and could improve for stepping up to 1m2f.

My original favourite Autocratic is a late non-runner and my revised market is:

Success Days 9/4

Hathal  7/2

Algometer 7/2

8/1 bar

Success Days

 

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Glorious Goodwood special membership

The story of this summer has been the constant going changes. All six British meetings are reporting ground on the soft side for today and with only Chepstow likely to see any rain that ground will be drying throughout the day.

We are going to quickly look at two races this afternoon.

3.55 Ascot

Appeared is a previously noted horse. Softer ground isn’t expected to be an issue. Run twice this season, both at Ascot with the opening run producing a clear victory.

Unfortunately he hasn’t been missed in the market. Generally around 9/4 on offer this morning, I go 3/1.

 

Appeared winning at Ascot

3.05 Uttoxeter

With Cuirassier Dempire a non-runner, Deadly Move is the only runner in form.

Form of his latest run is solid and his point to point form impressive. 6/4 my tissue.

 

Deadly Move (left)

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Another good winner for us yesterday at a generally available 6/1 & 11/2.

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Another repeat performance?

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Day 4 at Glorious Goodwood and three races for us to look at this afternoon. Plus a quick look at a few horses from yesterday that have been noted in defeat.

The going is officially Good to Firm. Currently the ground is loose on top but should dry out as racing approaches, providing there is no further rain. The top bend has been watered to stop horses from slipping.

Goodwood 2.35: Emotionless has something to prove having been well beaten on soft ground at Royal Ascot having his first run as a 3 y.o.

Cheek-pieces are fitted for the first time in a bid to recapture his excellent 2 y.o. form which saw him win his two opening races before running poorly in the Dewhurst.

As we saw with Ulysses on Wednesday, the step down in grade today could be the answer for Emotionless to recapture past glory.

Promising Run has a visor fitted and the filly is worth a look at the current 7/1 on offer.

Thikrayaat heads the market at a general 9/4, which looks short to me. I go 3/1 the field.

Promising-Run
Promising Run

Goodwood 3.10: Franklin D is a handicap ‘good thing’. A repeat of his 6 length victory at Newmarket just on two weeks ago, wins him this race. I have him in at 9/4 provisionally, but whether you want to take such odds in a big field competitive handicap is open to debate.

Goodwood 3.45: Muthmir won this race last year and carries 4lb lower today. Cheek-pieces are fitted for the first time to galvanise what has been a fairly lacklustre campaign this year. If the cheek-pieces work he will go close.

Muthmir.
Muthmir

Selectively picked our way through Goodwood over the first three days and the highlight has been our strong bet on Big Orange yesterday. The relentless galloper looks to be bound for the Melbourne Cup. A race he finished fifth in last year but has definitely improved and grown since then.

Two worth noting from yesterday who both suffered narrow defeats: I am convinced that Blue Point will win plenty more races. His lack of experience got him beat by a more campaigned Mehmas in the Richmond Stakes.

Stargazer must be kept on side. He will improve again and will be suited by some ease in the ground.

Back tomorrow for the final day of Glorious Goodwood.

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An Ethel win?

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Meetings from three of the Grade 1 tracks today with Ascot this afternoon plus Newmarket and York this evening.

We are going to look at two afternoon races away from the higher profile venues.

Uttoxeter 1.40: Ethelwyn has yet to see the winners enclosure in her eleven career starts. For me, she is risky at short odds.

Two outings this season and on both occasions narrowly beaten. Has the ability to win, but finds little for pressure.

Angel Face has a similar level of form at her best and gets the experience of Tom O’Brien in the saddle for the first time today. His last ride at this course saw him cajole an unlikely victory.

This looks more open than the betting suggests as a couple of others can’t be dismissed.

I price the market leaderrs as follows:

Ethelwyn 2/1

Angel Face 7/2

Middleton’s Minx 4/1

Miss Mobot 8/1

Book At Bedtime 10/1

Ethelwyn_BlackIvory-_9859
Ethelwyn leading Black Ivory on the gallops.

Thirsk 3.40: Good to Firm ground here, which has been watered.

Glitter Girl and Starlight Romance head the market in this maiden fillies stakes for 2 y.o.’s. Both will be suited by this step up to 7f.

Glitter Girl showed plenty of ability on debut over 6f, staying on well after being slightly outpaced.

Starlight Romance was noted on debut over 6f at York and run a similar race on her second start over the same c/d-outpaced before staying on. She looks to be crying out for 7f and further.

My early tissue has Glitter Girl in at 7/4 with Starlight Romance slightly shorter at 9/4 than the general odds on offer.

ZIDANE
Glorious Goodwood

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