A busy Friday with six meetings in Britain plus two in Ireland. We go to Goodwood for two races. The going is on the firm side of Good and the track has been watered. A very sunny day is in store for race-goers with temperatures in the mid 20’s.
3.10 Goodwood
1 mile handicap for fillies with several unexposed types from the leading yards.
Panova could be on a fair handicap mark and is expected to go well in what should prove to be an informative race. Oisin Murphy takes the ride for the first time.
With so many unknowns a difficult race to price with confidence.
At a general 4/1 and 9/2 in places I would keep Panova onside if getting involved.
Goodwood3.45 Goodwood
Premier race on the card today. A 1m 3f listed event worth over £22,000 to the winner.
Raheen House sets a decent standard on form achieved. Should come on from his seasonal debut when second at Newbury last month.
All five opponents are possible improvers.
I have Raheen House 2/1 on my provisional tissue.
Raheen House
Back tomorrow when we have four of the Grade 1 tracks all hosting meetings.
Two races to look at this afternoon, both at Goodwood, where the going is Good to Firm.
3.55 Goodwood Lewis Badges 1832 March Stakes (Listed Race)
Two non-runners leaving a field of seven to contest for the £28,000 first prize.
A race made harder to price because of the conundrum that is Mr Singh. He has been below form on both starts this season, including when blinkered for the first time on his latest start at York in early July.
He has since had his ‘wedding tackle’ removed and if that helps him to rediscover last season’s form, then he sets the standard.
The vibes from the yard about his recent work have been positive.
Currently a general 11/4, which looks about right in a race full of question marks.
Mr Singh
4.30 Goodwood Doom Bar Celebration Mile (Group 2)
Both the 3yo’s Thikriyaat and Zonderland are progressive – I find it difficult to split them.
Commenting on Thikriyaat, Angus Gold racing manager for Hamdan Al Maktoum said: “If he keeps progressing then obviously he could be running on Champions Day, but he’s got to take the next step at Goodwood first. He hasn’t disappointed us yet, but whether he’s up to a Group 1 only time will tell. It’s one step at a time for now – he’s won a Group 3, we’re trying a Group 2 in the Celebration Mile and then we’ll see.”
If any of the three older horses run to their best then the younger pair will need to demonstrate that progression to win.
An intriguing contest, where all five have their chance. Of the older horses Toormore showed positive signs in the Sussex Stakes and has ideal conditions today to recover past form.
I have them provisionally priced as follows:
Thikriyaat 9/4
Zonderland 9/4
Toormore 11/2
Lightning Spear 11/2
Arod 9/1
Thikriyaat (far side)
Finally, a word about the need for value. Yesterday we looked at Mediciman who I had priced at 5/1 on my private tissue.He went off as 9/4 favourite and disappointed once again. Having a target price for a horse can mean that sometimes you miss a winner, but importantly it keeps you away from backing under-priced losers. In the long term having value on your side is the most professional and profitable strategy.
Final day of Glorious Goodwood and an interesting card at Newmarket are the focus this afternoon. We are going to look at one race from each meeting.
The going at Goodwood is again Good to Firm and has been watered. Good at Newmarket and a dry cloudy day is forecast at both tracks.
3.45 Goodwood Qatar Stewards´ Cup (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2)
This is such a competitive race with so many variables that it makes limited appeal as a serious betting medium.
However I do want to touch on the chance of Dancing Star. She won a highly competitive and valuable 3yo handicap at Newmarket on her latest start and is very progressive. That came after two runs in June – a second place at York in unfavourable ground and a win at this course and distance.
Looking back at last year: Magical Memory won that same Newmarket race off the same handicap mark as Dancing Star before going on to win this race, again of the same mark.
Dancing Star looks to have a decent draw and ground conditions are fine. She is sure to run a massive race.
The other 3yo in the race is Raucous who is well worth keeping a close eye on.
If his high draw [20] doesn’t disadvantage him, he is capable of a big run.
Dancing Star is 5/1 generally with Raucous in at 16/1.
Fireglow has the single best piece of form when 4th in the 1000 Guineas. However she has performed below that level in recent starts and has to prove she will stay this trip. She has run creditably three times at Newmarket in her twelve race career, picking up a victory here at the end of last season.
Lady Of Camelot ran well in the Lancashire Oaks and is sure to figure.
Sweeping Up is decent, stays well but is exposed.
Abingdon is the horse with most potential. A big filly with the physical scope to improve. Stepping up to 12f looks sure to suit and she can progress past her rivals.
My tissue:
Abingdon 15/8
Lady Of Camelot 3/1
Fireglow 5/1
Sweeping Up 6/1
16/1 bar.
Abingdon
No blog for us next week as I am visiting a number of contacts in both this country and overseas. You can find out more about my work and get a free copy of my noted horses at: www.slh.co.uk
Day 4 at Glorious Goodwood and three races for us to look at this afternoon. Plus a quick look at a few horses from yesterday that have been noted in defeat.
The going is officially Good to Firm. Currently the ground is loose on top but should dry out as racing approaches, providing there is no further rain. The top bend has been watered to stop horses from slipping.
Goodwood 2.35: Emotionless has something to prove having been well beaten on soft ground at Royal Ascot having his first run as a 3 y.o.
Cheek-pieces are fitted for the first time in a bid to recapture his excellent 2 y.o. form which saw him win his two opening races before running poorly in the Dewhurst.
As we saw with Ulysses on Wednesday, the step down in grade today could be the answer for Emotionless to recapture past glory.
Promising Run has a visor fitted and the filly is worth a look at the current 7/1 on offer.
Thikrayaat heads the market at a general 9/4, which looks short to me. I go 3/1 the field.
Promising Run
Goodwood 3.10: Franklin D is a handicap ‘good thing’. A repeat of his 6 length victory at Newmarket just on two weeks ago, wins him this race. I have him in at 9/4 provisionally, but whether you want to take such odds in a big field competitive handicap is open to debate.
Goodwood 3.45: Muthmir won this race last year and carries 4lb lower today. Cheek-pieces are fitted for the first time to galvanise what has been a fairly lacklustre campaign this year. If the cheek-pieces work he will go close.
Muthmir
Selectively picked our way through Goodwood over the first three days and the highlight has been our strong bet on Big Orange yesterday. The relentless galloper looks to be bound for the Melbourne Cup. A race he finished fifth in last year but has definitely improved and grown since then.
Two worth noting from yesterday who both suffered narrow defeats: I am convinced that Blue Point will win plenty more races. His lack of experience got him beat by a more campaigned Mehmas in the Richmond Stakes.
Stargazer must be kept on side. He will improve again and will be suited by some ease in the ground.
Back tomorrow for the final day of Glorious Goodwood.
Good ground at all of today’s five turf meetings with the more northerly tracks reporting Good to Firm. Two races for us to quickly look at today.
Goodwood 3.30: Just the four runners contest for the £40,000 on offer. Prize Money and Algometer head the market taking up around 90% of the book. Both finished second on their seasonal debuts. However, I have a question mark over the run from Algometer. Looked to run well but the level of that form from the grey is questionable. I make him 9/4 on my private tissue, het gets a general 6/4 quote from the layers.
Midterm beating Algometer at Sandown
Stratford 8.50: Hallingham improved on latest start when winning at Plumpton earlier this month and landed something of a gamble. Has every chance of following up if staying the extra 2f. I price him at a provisional 3/1.
Back tomorrow when we have a feast of top class racing dominated by the Goodwood, Haydock, Newmarket and York cards in the afternoon.
Professional backer – Horse Racing Advisory Service
