Going to quickly go through my notes for four races at Ascot this afternoon.
1.20: Back By Midnight impressed last time but needs to get more fluency into his jumping. Two potential dangers if he doesn’t cause his own problems are Mr Spingspong and Red Devil Star. Both of which in varying degress need to get back old form.
Mr Spingspong has his first start for Brian Ellison. Favourably handicapped if the switch reinvigorates the 9y.o. Has conditions to suit.
Red Devil Star finished third to Back By Midnight last time which was a slight disappointment on his promising second at Wincanton the run before.
1.55: A race worth noting as all six can improve. Captain Forez of most interest. His debut at Newbury suggested he could make up to be a decent performer.
Captain Forez
2.30: Politologue 11/10 my tissue. Not as clear cut as the market currently suggests.
Politologue
3.05: Ballyarthur is progressive. But too short at the current 7/4. 5/2 my tissue.
We stay at Cheltenham for the second day of the International meeting. The going is Good/Good to Soft in places and showers are likely during the afternoon.
1.15 Cheltenham Raymond Mould Handicap Chase (CLASS 2)
Top weighted Vaniteux looks sure to have benefited from his reappearance at Ascot and is favourably handicapped on last season’s form.
Sew On Target is an outsider to keep an eye on having dropped in the handicap. Plenty of 20/1 around this morning. Unless the rains arrive he may find conditions too sharp, but is worth considering for future engagements.
I make Vaniteux my 7/2 favourite.
Sew On Target
1.50 Cheltenham Caspian Caviar Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
A few of these tie in together on recent Betvictor Gold Cup form.
Aso would be my preferred of these-softening ground would be a plus.
Kylemore Lough is also expected to figure, again with softer ground being a bonus.
8/1 the field on my tissue.
Aso
3.00 Cheltenham stanjames.com International Hurdle (Grade 2)
Six declared for the £74,000 first prize.
A very difficult race to evaluate with form horse My Tent Or Yours being at short odds despite having something to prove after a disappointing run at Haydock.
Melodic Rendezvouz finished in front of My Tent yet is the outsider of the field.
The New One is of interest, with his chasing career being put on hold for his attempt to win this race.
I make My Tent Or Yours and The New One my 11/4 joint favourites.
After some fairly moderate cards this week, horse racing springs to life with good meetings at Cheltenham and Doncaster plus an interesting ‘undercard’ at Bangor.
I am looking at two races from Cheltenham where the going is Good but firmer on the Cross-Country course.
Cheltenham 12.20 Jockey Club Ownership Syndicate Novices´ Chase (CLASS 2)
A case can be made for 6 runners contesting a decent £25,000 in prize money.
Emerging Force stayed on well to win at Exeter, though tended to jump right-handed, which could be a problem today. Looking at the general prices, I have him bigger than the 9/4 on offer.
Arpege D’alene is talented but not straightforward.
Laurium, Label Des Obeaux and Singlefarmpayment have a similar level of form.
Relentless Dreamer will need to improve, but impressed on his latest start.
I price the six as follows:
Arpege D’alene 7/2
Emerging Force 4/1
Laurium 5/1
Label Des Obeaux 5/1
Singlefarmpayment 5/1
Relentless Dreamer 10/1
Arpege D’alene
Cheltenham 1.30 Unicoin Group Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
Cogry has failed to complete on three starts this season but is fairly handicapped.
Southfield Theatre looked the winner when falling latest start and hadn’t been completely fluent prior to the fall at the last fence .
Out Sam has a piece of form that makes him very attractively weighted and I would keep him onside.
I go 6/1 the field in a wide open affair, with Out Sam being the preference.
Out Sam
It has been a quiet week so far, the rise in quality should present more opportunities starting today.
Four good meetings for us this afternoon with four races apiece from Sandown and Aintree on Channel 4. The going remains Good/Good to Soft. A cloudy and dry day is forecast across the country.
Two races for us this afternoon, both at Sandown.
12.20 Sandown Barry Rawlings “What A Year” “National Hunt” Novices´ Hurdle (CLASS 3)
Cruiseaweigh was impressive when winning his bumper at Aintree early last month and is of most interest.
Bardd bumper form isn’t as strong.
Dashing Oscar and Crystal Lad set hurdles form standard.
I have Cruiseaweigh in at 7/4 on my provisional tissue.
Sandown Park
3.00 Sandown Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) (CLASS 1)
Un De Sceaux sets a high standard if near his best.
Ar Mad is the unexposed improver.
I go 6/4 Un De Sceaux and 9/2 Ar Mad.
Un De Sceaux on his way to Arkle victory
Just the one bet for us yesterday, a strong and successful lay of a heavily backed short odds favourite. With the lays I specialise in going against the market by opposing favourites who I consider poor value. Yesterday I set a maximum lay limit of 2.4, our bet was returned at 2.1.
By concentrating on favourites we have much greater liquidity and by having a maximum cut-off price, I eliminate the dangerous practice of laying blind. On all lays this year we have a success rate of well over 70%, quite a few have been odds-on.
After an inspection racing goes ahead at Sandown but due to lingering frost patches Exeter has been called off. The going at Sandown is Good/Good to Soft. We have two races to analyse.
12.40 Sandown Coldunell Finance Amateur Riders´ Handicap Chase (For The John Dunsdon Memorial Cup) (CLASS 3)
Generally don’t get too heavily involved in amateur races like this. But it is of interest with the favourite being plenty short enough.
More Buck’s could improve but at the current 2/1 is too tight in the market.
Azure Fly and Vikekhal come into this race in form and have a similar chance to the favourite. I have all three as 4/1 co fav’s on my prov tissue.
Good to Soft is the general going today after a cold frosty night. Newcastle is on after a second inspection. We stay at Newbury for two races, starting with the Henneesy.
3.10 Newbury Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3)
Richest handicap chase this side of the Grand National. A 10/1 the field race with very few completely ruled out.
At the top end of the market Un Temps Pour Tout makes most appeal.
His from the front win over hurdles on reappearance has set him up perfectly for today’s race.
At the weights Holywell ties in with Un Temps Pour Tout on Cheltenham Festival form. However he finished tailed off on his reappearance over hurdles.
Triolo D’Alene won this race in 2013. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him run well today at big odds. Plenty of 33/1 around this morning if you fancy another each way punt following yesterday’s e/w option which came in at 5/1 having been as big as 13/2 in the morning.
Triolo D’Alene winning the Hennessy
3.45 Newbury bet365 Handicap Chase (For The Jim Joel Memorial Trophy) (CLASS 2)
Parsnip Pete finished behind Raven’s Tower at Aintree three weeks ago and was giving 11lb to the winner. He is expected to improve for that effort and can reverse that form today.
The form of Imjoeking’s Kelso win is working out nicely. He is a prominent runner who jumps well and is expected to figure.
I have Parsnip Pete and Imjoeking as 11/2 joint favs on my tissue.
Imjoeking
Great day of racing which I hope you enjoy. Back on Friday, in the meantime get your free noted horses at: www.slh.co.uk
We have a good few days of racing ahead starting today with the opening day of the Hennessy meeting at Newbury and a decent card at Doncaster. We add to these two tomorrow with the ‘Fighting Fifth’ meeting at Newcastle.
Three races for us this afternoon from Newbury where the chase course is Good to Soft(soft in places) and it is Soft (good to soft in places) for the hurdlers.
Newbury 1.05
Wide open handicap that should throw up future winners.
Double W’s, Sirabad and Valseur Du Granval are all progressive.
Remiluc makes his chasing debut on a fair mark.
He impressed when winning over hurdles on latest start, his jumping suggesting that fences shouldn’t be a problem.
Difficult race to evaluate-5/1 the field.
Double W’s (far side)
Newbury 2.10
Ballyoptic got outpaced then was staying on when falling at the last at Wetherby-he would have gone close. Nigel Twiston-Davies reported: “Ballyoptic jumped the hurdle all right but slipped on landing two strides after it, but it hasn’t dented his confidence as he’s schooled well since. We think he’d have won that day, but we would wouldn’t we? He was going very well though, and the softer ground will help here. I’m very happy with him.”
Menorah is of interest switching to hurdles, with cheek-pieces fitted.
Snow Falcon and Unowhatimeanharry are expected to progress.
Ballyoptic is my favourite, but is short in the market being as low as 15/8 this morning.
I price the main contenders as follows:
Ballyoptic 3/1
Snow Falcon 5/1
Unowhatimeanharry 11/2
Menorah 6/1
12/1 bar
Ballyoptic
Newbury 3.20
Behind Time impressed last week at Cheltenham-deserves to be at short odds.
Solomn Grundy finished 2nd in that race and was also noted. He is the E/W option.
I price the pair:
Behind Time 11/8
Solomn Grundy 3/1
10/1 bar
We look as though a spell of settled weather and with it consistent going will be with us for the current period. This provides more accurate form analysis and an increase in my own betting turnover which has had to be notably restrained of late due to a radical change in ground conditions.
Whilst we have Good to Soft ground at Ascot and Huntingdon, the going at Haydock will be Heavy. The track has had further rain this morning and can expect a little more this afternoon. Haydock is a course that trainers would expect and sometimes hope for that extra cut in the ground as shown by the current low level of non-runners.
Two races for us to look at starting with the opener:
12.10 Haydock Read Paul Nicholls Exclusively On Betfair Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 3)
Clyne impressed when last seen and will be suited by conditions.
Baby King disappointed after winning this race last year. He goes well fresh and is expected to figure.
Verni isn’t an easy ride, but has the champion jockey on board and can progress.
My tissue:
Clyne 3/1
Baby King 3/1
Verni 3/1
Baratineur 5/1
16/1 bar
Baby King
1.50 Haydock Betfair Price Rush Hurdle (CLASS 2)
Just the four to post to contest the winner’s prize of just on £62,000 with all of them guaranteed to take home a share of the overall prize.
Old Guard has a bit to prove after scrambling home in a chase on latest start.
Ch’tibello isn’t sure to be suited by testing ground.
Melodic Rendezvous is at his best in heavy ground, but looked to regress at the end of last season.
My Tent Or Yours sets the standard, although ground conditions are not ideal.
I price the four as follows:
My Tent 1/1
Old Guard 3/1
Ch’tibello 7/1
Melodic Rendezvous 7/1
My Tent Or Yours
On the Haydock card we see the welcome return of the sparkling 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Coneygree. Let’s hope he stays fit and can be an important player this season.
It is an intriguing and informative day of racing at all three jumps fixtures plus there are a few at Punchestown that will be of interest for the future.
Two races for us at Ascot this afternoon where the going is Good to Soft. The other two jump cards at Haydock and Ffos Las are more exposed to the bad weather and the ground at both could deteriorate considerably.
2.45 Ascot
Three runners return from a break including The Clock Leary, who is fairly handicapped. He comes from the Venetia Williams yard who have had two winners from five runners this week. A stable who seem to specialise in horses who like a bit of extra cut in the ground.
Fox Appeal has been below form on his last two starts, but will appreciate a return to a right-hand track.
Present Man form is slightly suspect and he hasn’t always found for pressure.
Difficult race to evaluate with total confidence but I would keep The Clock Leary onside. I make him the 3/1 fav.
Venetia Williams
3.55 Ascot
A lot of unknown quantities to this race, not least the market leader Cyrname making his British debut after three races in France, the last of those being ten months ago.
Favorite Girl won on the flat recently and looks overpriced. The current 16/1 offers some value.
Ascot Racecourse
Poor quality and changing ground have been key contributors to the lack of decent betting opportunities so far this week. However we have had one bet, a strong one for a very impressive winner whose progress I will be following.
Get your free noted horses shortlist which has already started winning by going to: www.slh.co.uk
Back for the second day at Cheltenham and the ground has eased to Good to Soft with further rain forecast today. I will be getting a course update from a contact later this morning before making final plans.
I am going to concentrate on a few noted horses running in wide open handicaps.
Cheltenham 1.50BetVictor Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
Racing Pulse unseated his rider fairly early when expected to go well on latest start.
Uninspiring form figures are misleading as this horse retains plenty of ability.
He is well handicapped on the best of his form, will be suited by soft ground and can go well in a highly competitive race.
Currently a general 16/1 and 18/1 best, which looks about right.
Racing Pulse (right) winning at Chepstow earlier this year.
Cheltenham 2.25BetVictor Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
Taquin Du Seuil and Buywise have the benefit of recent pipe openers over hurdles.
Both will be suited by the softening ground conditions, and are fairly handicapped.
A case of sorts can be made for all eighteen declared, although nine of them make their seasonal reappearance.
Too many unknowns to price accurately but the two mentioned are expected to run very well at double figure prices.
