Tag Archives: horseracing

Peregrine to swoop?

November 11, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

First day of the Cheltenham Open meeting and three races to look at. The track has been watered over the last few weeks and the going is Good/Good to Soft in places.

12.55 Cheltenham Glenfarclas Veterans´ Handicap Chase (CLASS 2)

Due to firm ground the Cross Country chase has been postponed to late January and this race for the older horses substituted.

Ericht and Realt Mor are the two runners with recent form. Both having run last week with Realt Mor being one of a number of winners for Gordon Elliott at Down Royal.

Astracad is of interest, having been sent to the sales and then bought back by his trainer.

With Shuil Royale now a non-runner the above three are at the head of the market.

I go 9/2 the field.

2.40 Cheltenham Neptune Investment Management Hyde Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2)

West Approach and Wholestone are essentially the same horse on previous form.

Peregrine Run continues to improve.

Baden sets the form standard. The grey has had four career outings; two in Ireland and his two in Britain have both been at this course.

My provisional tissue:

Baden 3/1

Peregrine Run 9/2

West Approach 9/2

Wholestone 9/2

20/1 bar

3.15 Cheltenham Opus Energy Novices´ Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 3)

Eighteen runners at present and the layers are taking no chances with their morning prices.

Plenty of these look badly handicapped.

Tudor City was a very easy winner on latest start on the flat.

Air Horse One is potentially well handicapped on his bumper form, but this is reflected in the 4/1 currently on offer.

Yearly profits have increased again this week with a strong bet on an impressive 11/4 winner. For more details about the service and latest membership terms go to: www.slh.co.uk

Back tomorrow morning for day 2.

horse racing

A watching day?

November 4, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

We have a weekend filled with plenty of top class racing, unfortunately the cards on offer today are of a fairly low calibre.

Despite the course watering, the dry Autumn has meant Warwick are reporting ground that is good to firm in places. There are already a good number of non-runners.

Two races to quickly look at are:

Warwick 1.25

Two NR’s leaving four to post at present.

Silvergrove has his first run since finishing third at the Cheltenham Festival in a handicap chase. He is capable of taking this novice hurdle before returning to chases. Currently a general 11/10.

A race made more interesting by the Skelton runner making British debut having had just the two races in Ireland.

Warwick 2.35

Again two NR’s with eight remaining in this 2m handicap hurdle.

Courtlands Prince would probably have won on latest start but for a mistake at the final hurdle in an incident packed finish. I go 9/4 whilst 7/4 is on offer generally.

The Pipe yard try the tongue-tie on Nice Thoughts in a bid to get back to the form shown in early summer.

It has been a very quiet week for us as there has been nothing worthy of serious backing. I will be keeping a close watch on Down Royal today with some of the big Irish yards going up against each other.

My All Weather team had a good 11/4 winner yesterday and added further to the impressive profits made so far this year. More details of this and the comprehensive racing service on offer, go to: www.slh.co.uk

horse racing

Not for me at 6/4

October 29, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Another informative day of racing ahead. Ascot hold their first jumps fixture of the season and there are a few ‘big guns’ making seasonal debuts. The ground there is Good to Firm in places. Such conditions are keeping a fair number of summer horses in action than may have been originally planned and not helping trainers who want to get a run into their winter stock on softer ground.

I am going to again concentrate on Wetherby today.

Wetherby 2.10 olbg.com Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race)

A very tight contest and there is little to choose between 5 of the 6 remaining contestants after Degenerous was declared a non-runner.

Pass The Time has been chasing and may find conditions on the sharp side.

Stephanie Francis has also been over fences and her jockey is unable to claim her allowance in this higher grade of race.

On my tissue:

Card Game, Midnight Jazz, Miss Crick, Stephanie Francis 7/2 co favs

Pass The Time 7/1

Wetherby 2.45 bet365 Hurdle (Registered As The West Yorkshire Hurdle) (Grade 2

Again a very tight betting race. The current 6/4 market favourite is Ballyoptic who comes here in search of his fifth consecutive victory. He has the advantage of a recent run but makes little appeal at current odds.

If In Doubt, Native River and Silsol have all achieved a similar level of form and for me represent better value than that currently on offer.

I go:

Ballyoptic 3/1

If In Doubt 4/1

Native River 5/1

Silsol 6/1

The Romford Pele 6/1

14/1 bar

Whilst there will be plenty of attention paid to the likes of Saphir du Rheu and Cue Card this afternoon, it has got to be remembered that the ultimate target for the top class horses is the major festivals during March and April. Short term hype can often get in the way of a considered long term approach.

horse racing

Look & learn

October 28, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Concentrating on the informative card at Wetherby this afternoon which contains two listed races. Much of a watching brief today as we look at future potential.

The going at the Yorkshire track is good and a mild dry day is forecast.

2.10 Wetherby

Clondaw Cracker was an expensive purchase from Ireland going to the in-form Mulholland yard.

She impressed when winning her bumper at Warwick in April. Will be at short odds to win on hurdles debut.

3.55 Wetherby

This looks to be the best juvenile hurdle of the season so far.

Cliffs Of Dover sets a high standard and has the benefit of jumps experience. Won smartly at Cheltenham last Friday. I go 6/4 on my provisional tissue. The three unraced horses follow in the current betting.

Just the two bets for us so far this week providing a 4/1 loser and an 11/4 winner which have added to the overall profits for the year. For latest membership terms and to: http://www.slh.co.uk/201617-jumps-campaign/ and for a free copy of my early season noted horses shortlist apply via: http://www.slh.co.uk/free-information-pack/

Also my All Weather contacts have continued their great form with 7/1 and 9/2 winners from the last three bets.

Back tomorrow for the first jump card of the season at Ascot.

horse racing

Comeback Jack?

October 15, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Champions Day and we are going to look at five races from Ascot. The richest race day of the flat season with £4.2 million prize money on offer. The going is Good and showers are forecast.

1.25 Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2)

We start with a 2 miler for 3 y.o.’s and over

Order Of St George sets a high standard. However that is reflected in his market price.

Having had a hard race in the Arc under a fortnight ago I would be wary of getting involved at very short odds.

I have them priced as follows:

Order Of St. George 5/4

Simple Verse 5/1

Forgotten Rules 10/1

Quest For More 10/1

14/1 Bar

2.00 Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1)

Two to look at in this wide open 6f sprint.

Twilight Son is a noted horse from last season who is expected to figure.

Signs Of Blessing form ties in with Twilight Son and he can go well at double figure odds.

I have it 5/1 the field which is slightly above the best on the current market and provisionally go the two mentioned as:

Twilight Son 13/2

Signs Of Blessing 11/1

3.10 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1)

Minding and Ribchester deservedly head the market as they contest for the winner’s prize of just over £650,000.

Around 8/11 the pair coupled looks about right and it’s a no play race for me.

3.45 Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1)

Close on three-quarters of a million for the winner.

There are good vibes concerning Jack Hobbs who is a previously noted horse. Last year’s Irish Derby winner returns after a five and a half month lay-off.

Almanzor has already beaten Arc winner Found and is a worthy favourite.

My tissue:

Almanzor 7/4

Found 3/1

Jack Hobbs 10/1

Fascinating 10/1

4.25 Balmoral Handicap (CLASS 2)

Wide open high class handicap where top weight GM Hopkins can figure on a course he habitually runs well at. Currently heads the market at a best priced 8/1.

A great day of racing, which I hope you enjoy.

horse racing

Spring day?

October 1, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Three races for us this afternoon. We start at Ascot where the going is Good and then onto Newmarket who have Good to Firm ground. Rain is expected at both courses this afternoon.

Ascot 2.30 Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3)

The three oldest horses in the field of nine are the market leaders.

Arab Spring returned to near his best with an impressive win at Kempton.

At his best Western Hymn would have every chance, but he has been below form on his last couple of starts.

Kings Fete could be the main danger to Arab Spring.

All three horses will handle any easing of the ground.

The market looks about right. My provisional tissue:

Arab Spring 3/1

Kings Fete 4/1

Western Hymn 5/1

Move Up 8/1

12/1 Bar

3.05 Ascot John Guest Bengough Stakes (Group 3)

High class 2yo Shalaa makes his seasonal reappearance. Unbeaten in all of his last five starts.

Well documented reports suggest he has recovered well from a pelvic injury.

Softening ground not a problem. Would be good to see him return to his best.

Currently the general 2/1 favourite.

4.00 Newmarket Sun Chariot Stakes (Group 1)

Confined to fillies and mares, with a quarter of a million pounds on offer in prize money.

Alice Springs put a disappointing performance in France behind her with an impressive win at Leopardstown. That win confirms she is effective on easy and fast ground.

A reproduction of that form sets a high standard.

French challengers Ervedya [first time cheek-pieces] and Volta[first time tongue-tie] are the form dangers.

I price the main contenders as follows:

Alice Springs 6/4

Ervedya 5/1

Volta 5/1

12/1 Bar

A reminder that there will not be a blog next week as preparations continue for the main 2016/17 jumps campaign. For more details and your free info pack, go to: www.slh.co.uk

horse racing, Uncategorized

Royal Ascot repeat?

September 17, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Plenty of non-runners at Newbury, many deterred by the soft ground after the midweek ‘monsoon.’ At Ayr the going is Good to Soft and light rain is forecast this afternoon.

One race from each for us today.

1.45 Newbury Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes (Group 3)

Formerly known as the Arc trial, this 1m 3f race attracts five runners.

Hardwicke stakes winner Dartmouth is better than latest run suggests and sets the form standard. He is expected to handle today’s conditions.

Algometer is an early season noted horse returning from a break after running in the Derby. Ground conditions will suit and he can progress.

Robin Of Navan returned to form on latest start in a high class All Weather race at Kempton.

I price the five runners as follows:

Dartmouth 13/8

Algometer 7/2

Robin Of Navan 7/2

Ayrad 9/1

Tashaar 12/1

2.00 Ayr William Hill Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group 3)

6f sprint for 2 y.o.’s with the winner collecting over £36,000.

Bletchley will be suited by conditions and is expected to return to the form which saw her finish 2nd in the Albany at Royal Ascot.

Drumfad Bay may find this trip too short.

Partitia is progressive, comes here looking for a hat-trick of victories.

Bletchley is a best priced 3/1, which is in line with my thinking.

bletchley-near-side — Bletchley (near side)

As we saw yesterday with Clem Fandango, my early season noted horses shortlist is picking up winners. For a free copy and an information pack, go to: www.slh.co.uk

horse racing, Uncategorized

Watch the weather

September 10, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Back for two races at Doncaster today including the Leger and then over to Leopardstown for the Irish Champion Stakes. After the strong winds yesterday at Doncaster the forecast is more benign. However there is there a possibility of rain and the clerk of the course has not ruled out the possibility of the ground easing from the current good conditions.

At Leopardstown the going is on the softer side of Good.

2.00 Doncaster Champagne Stakes (Group 2)

Six to post for this 7f event for the 2y.o. boys.

Thunder Snow sets the form standard on his second in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood.

He looks sure to go close, although the Saeed bin Suroor stable remain relatively quiet and that is a cause for concern.

Rivet impressed when winning at York. Rivet looks sure to step up significantly on that bare form and is in the ‘could be anything’ category. Partnered by Andrea Atzeni; the young Italian has already ridden five winners at this meeting so far.

2/1 joint favs on my provisional tissue.

3.45 Doncaster St Leger Stakes (Group 1)

A.P. O’Brien has three of the nine entered here. His Great Voltigeur winner Idaho being the strong market leader.

With the heavy rain having missed Doncaster Idaho deserves to be at short odds. He sets a high standard with the prospect of further improvement on this step up to 14f.

Muntahaa is progressing with racing but faces a very tough task in improving past Idaho.

The market has it about right. I go:

Idaho 4/5

Muntahaa 5/1

10/1 bar

6.45 Leopardstown Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1)

Here we have the Oaks winner taking on the Derby winner.

I favour Minding to come out on top against the highest class opposition.

Harzand may find the drop back to 10f a problem, the Arc being his target.

I price them as follows:

Minding 5/2

Harzand 7/2

10/1 bar

It is a day of high quality where the layers have had ample time to get their markets right for the main contenders. An angle in may be a change in the conditions at Doncaster and a sharp weather eye is advised.

horse racing, Uncategorized

Yalta conference

September 9, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

We head to Doncaster for two races this afternoon. The going is Good and a dry sunny day is forecast. I will be firming up my prices a little later once I have spoken to a number of contacts at the course.

1.55: The opening race is a Group 3 confined to fillies and mares.

With Lumiere having disappointed on latest start and Same Jurisdiction having her first start since arriving from South Africa, this is a difficult race to price with total confidence.

However Nemoralia was impressive at York. She sets a high standard and deserves to be at short odds.

With various doubts concerning the others runners Spangled can figure at big odds. Currently available at 16/1 with quite a few firms.

I provisionally price as follows:

Nemoralia evens

Lumiere 9/2

Spangled 8/1

2.30: A 5f Group 2 with local trainer Mark Johnston holding two strong entries with The Last Lion and Yalta.

What to make of Yalta is the big question here. His impressive win in the Molecomb at Goodwood two starts ago would make him difficult to beat here.

However he finished last at York on his latest start, being beaten before half way.

Excuses concerning the draw and a more competitive race have been put forward for that York reverse. To my eye it looked a possible physical issue. A return to that Goodwood form would set a good standard.

For me, Tis Marvellous and Afandem are the dangers in this highly competitive sprint.

I presently make Yalta, Tis Marvellous and Afandem 4/1 co favs.

Another very good week in the making with three winners from four bets only so far this week. Special terms for the 2016/17 main jumps campaign are now available. They include a discount on standard rates plus the remainder of this month free. See the website for full details of membership opportunities and to get your free information pack: www.slh.co.uk

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Donjuan to score?

September 3, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

The arrival time of the bands of rain sweeping across the country will be an added factor this afternoon. Ascot should get a relatively clear run before arrival but Haydock is already seeing the first wave.

3.10 Ascot Appletiser Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2)

Richest race on the card with £100,000 in prize money for the twelve declared to contest.

Stargazer was noted on latest start at Goodwood over 10f. He stayed on well after having to race wide on the track. Steps up to 12f today which is expected to bring further improvement.

Although there are a few other possible improvers in the opposition, I would be surprised if Stargazer doesn’t go very close. On my provisional tissue below I have him the same as the general price on offer. Not value enough for me in a competitive handicap:

Stargazer 5/2

Dal Harraild 11/2

10/1 bar

4.30 Haydock 32Red Sprint Cup Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1)

As things stand by the time we get to this race, Haydock will have been at the centre of the rainband as it passes east. Haydock does not drain as easily as many other courses. Until we see the extent and depth of the heavy rain forecast it is not possible to accurately price this race. Also we could lose the favourite should the conditions be too soft.

Looking at a few of the contenders and their preferred conditions:

Limato’s prospects depend on the ground staying good – softer ground will lessen his chance. For me the 9/4 favourite on good and a drifter on a slower surface.

Quiet Reflection will be suited by easing ground, and must go very close.

Donjuan Triumphant is expected to go well at double figure odds if the forecast rains arrive.

Provisionally pricing on good to soft – soft ground, I go: Quiet Refection 5/1, Donjuan Triumphant 14/1.

Professional backer – Horse Racing Advisory Service