Unappealing days racing with modest maidens and tightly knit handicaps. Tomorrow’s cards hold much greater appeal.
We are going to quickly look at two races:
Ascot 2.35: Harwoods Volante has been gradually returning to his best and looks sure to go well in an open race. He was just touched off at Leicester last week after pulling hard early on. I don’t anticipate the drop to 6f from 7f to prove an issue.
Cases can be made for half this field, but I would be surprised if Harwoods Volante doesn’t run well. 5/1 on my provisional tissue.
Harwoods Volante
Haydock 4.30: El Vip heads the market and looks sure to improve. However I am always suspicious of ‘Onestart – One win’ horses immediately moving into competitive handicaps.
In time El Vip may prove to be a higher class animal than this opposition, but experience counts for a great deal and he makes limited appeal at the current 7/4. I rate him more like a 3/1 chance.
Very good week so far with both of our highest strength bets being successful. A profitable lay at 2.1 and a 3/1 winner from our only bet yesterday. For your free information pack go to: www.slh.co.uk Introductory membership terms now available.
Two races to look at this afternoon, both at Goodwood, where the going is Good to Firm.
3.55 Goodwood Lewis Badges 1832 March Stakes (Listed Race)
Two non-runners leaving a field of seven to contest for the £28,000 first prize.
A race made harder to price because of the conundrum that is Mr Singh. He has been below form on both starts this season, including when blinkered for the first time on his latest start at York in early July.
He has since had his ‘wedding tackle’ removed and if that helps him to rediscover last season’s form, then he sets the standard.
The vibes from the yard about his recent work have been positive.
Currently a general 11/4, which looks about right in a race full of question marks.
Mr Singh
4.30 Goodwood Doom Bar Celebration Mile (Group 2)
Both the 3yo’s Thikriyaat and Zonderland are progressive – I find it difficult to split them.
Commenting on Thikriyaat, Angus Gold racing manager for Hamdan Al Maktoum said: “If he keeps progressing then obviously he could be running on Champions Day, but he’s got to take the next step at Goodwood first. He hasn’t disappointed us yet, but whether he’s up to a Group 1 only time will tell. It’s one step at a time for now – he’s won a Group 3, we’re trying a Group 2 in the Celebration Mile and then we’ll see.”
If any of the three older horses run to their best then the younger pair will need to demonstrate that progression to win.
An intriguing contest, where all five have their chance. Of the older horses Toormore showed positive signs in the Sussex Stakes and has ideal conditions today to recover past form.
I have them provisionally priced as follows:
Thikriyaat 9/4
Zonderland 9/4
Toormore 11/2
Lightning Spear 11/2
Arod 9/1
Thikriyaat (far side)
Finally, a word about the need for value. Yesterday we looked at Mediciman who I had priced at 5/1 on my private tissue.He went off as 9/4 favourite and disappointed once again. Having a target price for a horse can mean that sometimes you miss a winner, but importantly it keeps you away from backing under-priced losers. In the long term having value on your side is the most professional and profitable strategy.
In what has been a low grade week, we have another modest days racing. Thankfully the standard picks up a bit tomorrow.
Two races for us to analyse today.
Newmarket 3.45: Mediciman is a noted horse from last season who has been one of the few disappointments from the shortlist.
Steps down in grade and up in trip to 10 furlongs for the first time. The extra distance should suit. A very tight knit seven runner handicap where no runner can be discounted.
I would want 5/1 for Mediciman, currently 9/2 best. He knows this course well .Three of his career starts have been here, including his last two.
Newmarket racecourse.
Down Royal 5.45: Intriguing and relatively valuable 2m hurdle.
Prickly has proved inconsistent in the past but impressed when winning on the flat at Killarney last time. If reproducing that level of ability over hurdles he will take plenty of beating.
Has winning course form in a bumper last year.
However if Prickly disappoints again, Mai Fitz looks the one to take advantage.
I go 5/2 Prickly and 3/1 Mai Fitz.
Prickly
Really exhilirating end to the month with a big winner last Saturday and a strong bet 7/2 winner from our only two bets so far this week.
After the rain yesterday, the York going is now Good. Intermittent showers, some heavy, are forecast during the afternoon.
We have two races to look at this afternoon, starting with the Gimcrack and then the Ebor. I will be finalising my prices after getting a course report at lunchtime.
3.25 York
Blue Point is an early season noted horse who sets the form standard. He was strongly fancied when showing inexperience and just being touched off by Mehmas at Goodwood.
After that race Charlie Appleby commented: “Blue Point has been asked to go about his business and I was really pleased when Frankie’s horse came to him and we quickened and got that neck up on him. But Mehmas just has that experience and was able to outbattle us in the end. He will come forward for that for sure. He is still a very talented horse.”
Faces unexposed and progressive opposition today but expected to go close.
My provisional tissue:
Blue Point 5/2
Mokarris 5/1
Mubtasim 5/1
Mehmas just holds off Blue Point
4.00 York
Just on £175,000 on offer to the winner of this ultra-competitive handicap. With the long time ante-post favourite Ivan Grozny out through injury, the race has an even more open feel about it.
Current favourite is Antiquarium still looks to be progressing. A favourite has not won this race since 1998.
Top Tug is a stayer who may find himself outpaced at the finish.
Heartbreak City has shown marked improvement over hurdles and is respected.
I like She Is No Lady, who ran an excellent race on latest start at Sandown early last month. The form of which is fairly solid. She can improve further. Anything double figures has been nibbled at this morning, I would wait until the market gets fully going later and we can see how the ground is riding.
She Is No Lady (centre)
With luck the weather may not interfere too badly and we will have a true test of ability this afternoon.
After two days of sunshine and fast ground, the rain is set to descend on York from around noon today. With heavy rain forecast during racing, there could be a pronounced affect on the going. Two races for us to look at.
York 2.30: Pallasator finished a creditable second in the Goodwood Cup. From that showing he holds four of todays rivals. Wicklow Brave getting closest in a non-competitive fourth place.
Pallasator can be fractious, but if he is kept calm prior to the off, looks sure to go close. Handles all ground conditions.
Last year’s Ascot Gold Cup winner, Trip To Paris is respected after showing well on return in July following a tendon injury. Fifth in this race last year before setting off for the southern hemisphere with high profile runs in Australia and Japan.
I have the market leaders priced as follows:
Pallasator 3/1
Trip To Paris 7/2
Clever Cookie 4/1
Pallasator
York 3.40: Whilst the predicted rain may not have got into the firm ground for the opening races, by mid-afternoon things could look a lot different.
Mecca’s Angel won this race last year by a 2f margin. Which is quite impressive for such a 5f Group 1 sprint. Three outings this season with the latest bringing a Group 2 victory at the Curragh.
July Cup winner Limato heads the betting. Takes on 5f for the first time.
Yalta is one of two 2 y.o.’s in the race and as such gets a sizeable weight pull from his older rivals. Left the field in his wake when running away with the Molecomb at Goodwood.
I am going to price this when I have a better idea of ground conditions. Of the three studied, only Mecca’s Angel will be suited by easing ground. There was some 6/1 on offer very early this morning but that has been taken in anticipation of a going change.
Mecca’s Angel
No improvement in the weather is forecast for tomorrow when I will return to look at a few more feature races.
Eight races on Channel 4 this afternoon and we are going to quickly look at three of them. Two at Newbury where the going is again Good to Firm and the feature race of the year at Ripon to be run on good ground. At both courses have been watered and a dry cloudy day is forecast.
3.05 Newbury Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3)
Kings Fete looks to have an excellent chance of following up his win at Goodwood. His previous run at Royal Ascot saw Ryan Moore have to snatch him up when going for a gap between horses and despite running on his chance had gone. He is not completely straightforward and this is factored into my pricing. As is the likelihood of a tactical battle amongst the small field.
Battersea makes only his second outing of the season having wintered in Meydan.
Humphrey Bogart won his Derby trial at Lingfield and has subsequently run in two Derby’s: Epsom and then at Belmont.
I have provisionally priced as follows pending a report from the course:
Kings Fete 4/5
Battersea 5/1
Humphrey Bogart 6/1
10/1 bar
Kings Fete
4.10 Newbury Hungerford Stakes (Group 2)
Home Of The Brave narrowly beat Convey earlier this season at Haydock and I expect him to confirm that form.
In their last outings Home Of The Brave finished second in a Group 2 at Goodwood whilst Convey won a listed event at Pontefract.
The market looks about right and there is no great angle into the race.
I price the market leaders as follows:
Home Of The Brave 13/8
Convey 9/4
9/1 bar
Home Of The Brave
3.55 Ripon Great St Wilfrid Stakes (CLASS 2)
A highly competitive sprint handicap named after the patron saint of Ripon.
Son Of Africa caught the eye on latest start and is expected to go well at decent odds.
He has dropped to a fair handicap mark and conditions will suit.
Current 16/1 looks about right.
Our special membership starts today to cover the York Ebor meeting. More details here
Opening day of the Newbury Hungerford meeting and we have two races from there to look at this afternoon. The going is Good to Firm and has been watered. A warm sunny day is forecast.
Newbury 2.50: A competitive nine runner handicap with two of particular interest in what could be a tactical battle.
Marcano would have gone close to winning with a clear run on latest start at Sandown last week. Steps back up to a mile today.
He is a ‘hold up’ horse who needs things to fall his way. Well campaigned this season and looks sure to go well.
Exceeding Power is another who is ridden just off the pace. Last outing was at Newmarket over today’s trip at the end of July. Finished third having raced keenly.
He is running consistently well and is expected to figure. Gets 4lb from Marcano. I find it hard to split the pair as my tissue shows:
Marcano 7/2
Exceeding Power 7/2
Lulani 6/1
Steal The Scene 13/2
10/1 Bar
Exceeding Power
Newbury 3.55: The premier race of today’s Newbury card. A listed 5f sprint for 2 y.o. fillies.
The unbeaten Mrs Danvers impressed on latest start at this course. Just holds Stormy Clouds on that form although I feel the market has them too far apart.
Like Mrs Danvers, Rajar comes here off the back of three consecutive victories. Impressed at Newmarket on her latest start and is preferred in a very tight race. The drop back from 6 to 5f shouldn’t be a problem. After the Newmarket race assistant trainer Tom Ward pinpointed this race as the next step in her progression.
Paul Hanagan is the fourth different jockey for Dainty Dandy today in her three race career. Showed improved form at Ascot last time but the drop back to 5f could be a problem.
My tissue:
Rajar 4/1
Dainty Dandy 9/2
Mrs Danvers 9/2
8/1 Bar
Mrs Danvers
Just returned from a short break in which I met up with a few contacts to assess plans for the late flat/early jumps campaigns. First day back provided a 10/1 winner from my early betting.
We have a special membership for York Ebor week at just £20. Membership starts tomorrow and runs to Sunday 21st. More details here.
Final day of Glorious Goodwood and an interesting card at Newmarket are the focus this afternoon. We are going to look at one race from each meeting.
The going at Goodwood is again Good to Firm and has been watered. Good at Newmarket and a dry cloudy day is forecast at both tracks.
3.45 Goodwood Qatar Stewards´ Cup (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2)
This is such a competitive race with so many variables that it makes limited appeal as a serious betting medium.
However I do want to touch on the chance of Dancing Star. She won a highly competitive and valuable 3yo handicap at Newmarket on her latest start and is very progressive. That came after two runs in June – a second place at York in unfavourable ground and a win at this course and distance.
Looking back at last year: Magical Memory won that same Newmarket race off the same handicap mark as Dancing Star before going on to win this race, again of the same mark.
Dancing Star looks to have a decent draw and ground conditions are fine. She is sure to run a massive race.
The other 3yo in the race is Raucous who is well worth keeping a close eye on.
If his high draw [20] doesn’t disadvantage him, he is capable of a big run.
Dancing Star is 5/1 generally with Raucous in at 16/1.
Fireglow has the single best piece of form when 4th in the 1000 Guineas. However she has performed below that level in recent starts and has to prove she will stay this trip. She has run creditably three times at Newmarket in her twelve race career, picking up a victory here at the end of last season.
Lady Of Camelot ran well in the Lancashire Oaks and is sure to figure.
Sweeping Up is decent, stays well but is exposed.
Abingdon is the horse with most potential. A big filly with the physical scope to improve. Stepping up to 12f looks sure to suit and she can progress past her rivals.
My tissue:
Abingdon 15/8
Lady Of Camelot 3/1
Fireglow 5/1
Sweeping Up 6/1
16/1 bar.
Abingdon
No blog for us next week as I am visiting a number of contacts in both this country and overseas. You can find out more about my work and get a free copy of my noted horses at: www.slh.co.uk
Day 4 at Glorious Goodwood and three races for us to look at this afternoon. Plus a quick look at a few horses from yesterday that have been noted in defeat.
The going is officially Good to Firm. Currently the ground is loose on top but should dry out as racing approaches, providing there is no further rain. The top bend has been watered to stop horses from slipping.
Goodwood 2.35: Emotionless has something to prove having been well beaten on soft ground at Royal Ascot having his first run as a 3 y.o.
Cheek-pieces are fitted for the first time in a bid to recapture his excellent 2 y.o. form which saw him win his two opening races before running poorly in the Dewhurst.
As we saw with Ulysses on Wednesday, the step down in grade today could be the answer for Emotionless to recapture past glory.
Promising Run has a visor fitted and the filly is worth a look at the current 7/1 on offer.
Thikrayaat heads the market at a general 9/4, which looks short to me. I go 3/1 the field.
Promising Run
Goodwood 3.10: Franklin D is a handicap ‘good thing’. A repeat of his 6 length victory at Newmarket just on two weeks ago, wins him this race. I have him in at 9/4 provisionally, but whether you want to take such odds in a big field competitive handicap is open to debate.
Goodwood 3.45: Muthmir won this race last year and carries 4lb lower today. Cheek-pieces are fitted for the first time to galvanise what has been a fairly lacklustre campaign this year. If the cheek-pieces work he will go close.
Muthmir
Selectively picked our way through Goodwood over the first three days and the highlight has been our strong bet on Big Orange yesterday. The relentless galloper looks to be bound for the Melbourne Cup. A race he finished fifth in last year but has definitely improved and grown since then.
Two worth noting from yesterday who both suffered narrow defeats: I am convinced that Blue Point will win plenty more races. His lack of experience got him beat by a more campaigned Mehmas in the Richmond Stakes.
Stargazer must be kept on side. He will improve again and will be suited by some ease in the ground.
Back tomorrow for the final day of Glorious Goodwood.
Two major races for us this afternoon at York and Ascot respectively. Good to Firm at both courses and watering has taken place. There is a common theme in both races – a reversal of form from that experienced in the testing conditions endured from a few weeks back. Most notably at Royal Ascot and at the Sandown Eclipse meeting. As we have already seen recently, some of that form can have a line drawn through it now we are back to more customary mid-summer ground.
3.35 York Sky Bet York Stakes (Group 2)
Although Time Test sets the standard on the best of his form, odds of 2/5-4/11 are prohibitive. Ground conditions weren’t suitable in the Eclipse, but that was still a disappointing run. A return to the imperious Royal Ascot form of 2015 would be worth the admission money.
As his trainer Roger Charlton reported: “He’s come out of Sandown well and he’s in good form,” His best performances have been on fast ground and he hasn’t really had it like this since Royal Ascot last year. We take each race as it comes but the Juddmonte would be a natural follow-on from this race.”
Commenting on stablemate Countermeasure who set the pace in the Eclipse and lines up against Time Test today: “Countermeasure has always run from the front and he’ll do it again at York. A good pace is important for Time Test, but then it is for all of them. It’s a small field and we don’t want a messy race.”
With only 5 runners I can’t see any great betting angle into this race.
Time Test
I price the race as follows:
Time Test 1/2
Mahsoob 6/1
Air Pilot 10/1
Mondialiste 10/1
Counterm 100/1
4.30 Ascot King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored by Qipco) (Group 1)
Despite sweating up before the start of the Hardwicke, racing arkwardly and Seamie Heffernan dropping the whip, Highland Reel was just held by Dartmouth in a duelling finish.
I expect Highland Reel with Ryan Moore now on board to reverse the Ascot form. Heffernan takes the ride on AP O’Brien’s other entry, Sir Isaac Newton.
Wings Of Desire ran well to finish a creditable fourth in the Derby and can progress.
Erupt caught the eye on latest start at Saint-Cloud, where never nearer than at the finish in a slowly run race.
Just on £700, 000 to the winner alone and prize money goes down to sixth place.
My prices are:
Highland Reel 5/2
Dartmouth 7/2
Erupt 9/2
Wings Of Desire 9/2
Sir Isaac Newton 10/1
33/1 Bar
Highland Reel
Good start to our special membership yesterday. To secure your place and further details go to:http://www.slh.co.uk/index.php/glorious-goodwood-special-16
Professional backer – Horse Racing Advisory Service
