Tag Archives: horseracing

Victory Sign?

June 10, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Six meetings in Britain today, split equally between afternoon and evening. We are looking at two afternoon races at York and Newton Abbot respectively. Both courses have been watered and the ground is currently on the firm side of good. A warm dry day is forecast at both courses.

York 4.50: Sign of A Victory started his flat career on turf at Ascot in early May. It did not go well as he dwelt at the start and never got in a position to challenge.

He remains well handicapped and will be suited by the step up to 1m 6f today.

I put him in at 9/4 on my tissue.

Newton Abbot 3.20: Lets Hope So had every chance when falling two out at Southwell on latest start just over three weeks ago. The faller was tracking today’s market rival Avispa before coming to grief. Whilst others were hampered by the fall, Avispa was unaffected and won by 5 lengths.

Lets Hope So enjoys a 6lb pull in the weights today and is open to improvement. But she has been on the floor and a lot depends on her confidence with that experience still fresh.

I have the pair in as my 7/4 joint favourites.

We have a Royal Ascot membership special available. Membership starts for tonights three cards. More details on my website.

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Derby star?

June 4, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

We stay at Epsom for today’s analysis. Whilst the going remains as Good to Soft, the ground is drying and a warm, dry day is forecast.

3.10 Epsom Queen Elizabeth II Coronation Cup (Group 1)

Postponed is a horse of the highest class. There has been debate about the conditions and he has eased in the betting as a result. I think conditions are fine and if he runs to his best I expect him to win.

His trainer Roger Varian said, “he handled a bit of give when winning the King George and the Prix Foy but a faster surface suits him better and he wouldn’t want it too soft.”

My tissue is very similar to prices available

Postponed evens

Found 7/2

Simple Verse 9/2

4.30 Epsom Investec Derby (Group 1)

This is such an open race that it wouldn’t be a major surprise if any one of 14 of the 16 runners taking part won.

My two against the field are:

Wings Of Desire impressed in the Dante where he snatched victory from Deauville as the line approached. I would be disappointed if he doesn’t run close.

Andre Fabre is represented by the experienced Cloth Of Stars. Has won both his outings this season in good style. Had a gallop here at the Breakfast with the Stars morning.

Step up in trip looks sure to suit.

My provisional tissue:

Wings Of Desire 4/1

Cloth Of Stars 7/1

US Army Ranger 7/1

It promises to be an intriguing 2016 Derby.

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Diomed for Decorated?

June 3, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Two races for us today from Epsom, who report Good to Soft.

Epsom 3.10: Arod and Decorated Knight head the market.

Arod won the Diomed last year and followed up at Royal Ascot. Comeback run saw defeat at Ascot, despite being well backed.

Arod’s jockey for those two big victories last summer was Andrea Atzeni, he takes the ride on Decorated Knight today following her move to Roger Charlton.

Decorated Knight has prospects of reversing this year’s Ascot form with Arod when they were separated by just over a length. A hold-up horse, Atzeni will need to get cover from a wide draw.

I go 3/1 Arod and 4/1 Decorated Knight.

Decorated Knight (centre green) — Decorated Knight and Andrea Atzani (centre, green) winning at Goodwood

Epsom 4.30: If Minding stays, she wins the Oaks. But we are in unknown territory with the distance and more testing ground than usual. The last few years have seen the Oaks winner improve out of all recognition. None more so than the complete outsider of the field getting up in the final strides last year.

Second favourite is Skiffle. She should improve further and conditions are expected to suit.

I have the favourite in at Evens and Skiffle at 11/2. Which is about their general price. You can make a case for plenty of the others in this.

Minding (1,000 guineas)

Having put a lot into today’s Epsom card, the layers and I are in general agreement with the main pricing.

Back tomorrow for Derby Day.

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Palmer double?

May 28, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Two races from Haydock for us this afternoon; a warm dry day is forecast. Hugo Palmer has a runner in each of our featured races, both figure prominently in my analysis.

3.10 Haydock Timeform Jury Stakes (Registered As The John of Gaunt Stakes) (Group 3) (CLASS 1

Home Of The Brave and So Beloved are the two to concentrate on.

Home Of The Brave is still progressing and must go close. Won a valuable listed race at Leicester last time out where he led for most of the race. Entered up for Royal Ascot.

So Beloved impressed when winning over C&D on latest start. That Haydock form three weeks ago gives him a solid chance.

I put the pair in as my 3/1 joint favourites.

3.45 Haydock 188Bet Sandy Lane Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1)

Second of the Hugo Palmer entries to look at is Gifted Master, who comes here seeking his sixth consecutive victory. Noted at Ascot when he made all and stayed on strongly despite an arkward exit from the stalls. Expected to progress further.

Woodcote and Coventry Stakes winner Buratino should appreciate the return to sprinting after his run in the Guineas. He a live danger on last season’s form.

I go 7/4 and 5/1 respectively on my tissue.

The absurdity of current meeting planning is highlighted today as we have no afternoon racing in the south whilst Haydock and Chester compete against each other.

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Never Mind The Quality

May 27, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Plenty of racing today with six meetings ranging from Musselburgh in the north, right down to Brighton on the south coast.

However, it is a matter of ‘never mind the quality, feel the width.’ A lot of today’s offering is guesswork maidens or low grade handicaps.

Two races for us at Worcester this evening to consider.

The going is Good and the ground has been watered.

6.20: Five runners for this Class 4 Novice Chase. Ballybroker Breeze carries a 6lb higher weight than all of his rivals with 11-4. Won on his chase debut at Perth last month. Southfield Vic has the best form but isn’t trustworthy. His overall level and experience at both hurdles and fences makes him the favourite here. Given his best, he should win, but that best is never guaranteed.

I price them up as follows:

Southfield Vic 6/4

Ballyboker Breeze 3/1

Fort Worth 3/1

10/1 Bar

7.50: I have Truckers Glory and Our Reward in at 9/4 joint favourites. My marginal preference would be for Truckers Glory with the experienced conditional Jonathan Moore claiming 5lb.

Better cards for us tomorrow.

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Appeared to progress?

May 21, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

A terrific day of racing ahead both in Britain and Ireland. Two races for us to look at; the first at York where the going is Good. Heavy rain is forecast before racing commences at 2.05 with intermittent showers throughout the afternoon. We also go to Haydock, which has a similar weather forecast on ground which is already Good to Soft in places. The widespread softening of the ground has resulted in plenty of non-runners today.

3.15 York Federation of Bloodstock Agents Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 3)

Appeared made his turf debut for Roger Varian at the Dante meeting in a Class 4. Despite hanging and not looking a straightforward ride, the 4y.o. was most impressive when winning over today’s C&D. Providing his temperament can be kept under control he can make further progress. He looks to have the latent talent to be a listed/group race performer.

Although expected to be effective on today’s quicker ground, any rain would be welcomed. I put him in at a provisional 2/1, which is the best price currently on offer. The whole field is priced up very similar to my tissue.

Interception Wokigham — Interception winning the 2015 Wokingham

3.40 Haydock EBF Stallions Cecil Frail Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies´ & Mares) (CLASS 1)

Interception sets a very decent standard on last season’s form and is not expected to lack for fitness on her return to action. She has been confirmed in-foal and connections will want to get as much race success with her before she retires to the paddocks.

Difficult to price with total confidence but around 3/1 looks fair.

Morning favourite Thetis is a NR.

With Epsom and Royal Ascot on the horizon, there will be pointers today worth noting.

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Grey Day at Goodwood?

May 20, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Good ground at all of today’s five turf meetings with the more northerly tracks reporting Good to Firm. Two races for us to quickly look at today.

Goodwood 3.30: Just the four runners contest for the £40,000 on offer. Prize Money and Algometer head the market taking up around 90% of the book. Both finished second on their seasonal debuts. However, I have a question mark over the run from Algometer. Looked to run well but the level of that form from the grey is questionable. I make him 9/4 on my private tissue, het gets a general 6/4 quote from the layers.

Stratford 8.50: Hallingham improved on latest start when winning at Plumpton earlier this month and landed something of a gamble. Has every chance of following up if staying the extra 2f. I price him at a provisional 3/1.

Back tomorrow when we have a feast of top class racing dominated by the Goodwood, Haydock, Newmarket and York cards in the afternoon.

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No Second For Step?

May 13, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Two races for us this afternoon. The going at both York and Newmarket is Good to Firm. The latter has been watered.

York 4.05: The market leaders are Flying Officer and Second Step. Flying Officer is the current 6/4 favourite. Seasonal debut at Ascot late last month over 2m. No extra in final furlong and finished third. Dropped back by 2f today.

Second Step last appeared in the Canadian International at Woodbine in October. Has won first time out for the past two years. Expected to stay this trip and can go very close.

This could end up a tactical race with no confirmed front-runners. On a flat galloping track like York, Second Step may have the finishing advantage over the proven stayer, Flying Officer.

I have put the pair in as 2/1 joint favourites on my provisional tissue for this intriguing contest.

Newmarket 4.25: Taffeta Lady was noted on debut when running a big priced 3rd at Sandown. Form of that race was franked yesterday by the 2nd in that race, Shall We.

Difficult race to price with plenty of unknown factors. I would go around 2/1. Currently 6/4 with most layers.

Back tomorrow as we have another great day of top quality action.

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Gold for Kerry?

April 29, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Plenty of rain around Britain and Ireland today to freshen up the ground in below average temperatures. I am going to look at two later races.

We start with the Punchestown Champion Hurdle at 5.30. Vroum Vroum Mag comes up against the boys for the first time and has a considerable weight advantage in her bid to make it 10 from 10 since she moved to the Mullins yard.

I just can’t get her in at the 5/4 – 11/8 currently on offer. 9/4 on my tissue.

Our other race of interest is the 6.50 at Bangor. Magheral Express makes his first start for Kerry Lee since leaving Jonjo O’Neill.

Fairly handicapped on his early hurdles form and could well respond to the change of stable.
I have him at 9/2. He has drifted slightly this morning to 5/1 with some firms.

With both races, I want to see how the ground is riding before firming up my prices.

Newmarket report their advance going for the weekend is Good to Soft. It could be part of our focus tomorrow.

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Red Day?

April 15, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Two races for us to quickly look at this afternoon and then I would like to touch on the new Flat season.

Firstly to the Fontwell 2.10. Billy Merriott has raced just four times since his last victory in November 2012 and has failed to finish in three of them. However, his last outing at Doncaster just over four months ago showed that he could retain some of his old ability. I trust Harry Fry has put plenty of work into the 10 y.o. Impossible race to price with confidence, I would provisionally put Billy Merriott in at 9/4.

A marked step up in class as we go to Ayr for their premier race on the card. The 3.45 is a listed race worth over £25,000 to the winner. Definitly Red and Double Shuffle are at the head of the market.

Definitly Red drops 5lb from his lacklustre showing at the Cheltenham Festival and is on a favourable mark. My negative is the 2m 4f trip may be too sharp.

The bookmakers are taking no chances, with a general 11/4 quote. 9/2 on my tissue.

Pity we have lost Newbury today, but the two days of Newmarket this week have been interesting.

On Wednesday I analysed three additional races for clients personal use as part of the comprehensive racing service provided. Two over the jumps winning at 13/8 and 6/1 plus highlighting the Royal Ascot prospects of Sutter County. Whilst winning narrowly at prohibitive odds, he will come on from that run in fairly testing ground.

Just one flat horse for us the following day, another narrow winner, this time at 3/1.

As a professional, I like to see the flat season take shape before getting involved. Account betting will start in the forthcoming weeks.

Back tomorrow morning.

Professional backer – Horse Racing Advisory Service