Tag Archives: ITV Racing

horse racing

Last chance

We go to Newbury and Perth this afternoon. Unseasonably soft ground at both meetings.

Plenty of non-runners today, most will be down to unsuitable going.

2.25 Newbury 1m5½f Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Frontiersman sets the standard, but is proving frustrating having thrown away a winning opportunity at Newmarket on latest start.

Defoe’s win at Hamilton has subsequently been franked. He can progress further.

To Eternity is still unexposed.

At the odds available I am tempted to give Frontiersman one further chance.

My provisional front of market tissue:

Frontiersman  5/2

Defoe               11/4

To Eternity      11/2

We go to Newbury and Perth today. Unseasonably soft ground at both meetings.

Plenty of non-runners today, most will be down to unsuitable going.

 

Frontiersman

 

3.45 Perth 2m Spirits Of Scone Stone Of Destiny Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (3yo+)

Lovato runs in first handicap and will need to improve to win off his mark.

Top-weighted Mirsaale returned to form on latest start. Connections fit cheek-pieces for the first time over hurdles (he wore them on the flat).

Dear Sire ties in with Mirsaale on latest form.

Green Zone is improving.

My early assessment of the field:

Mirsaale                10/3

Lovato                     4/1

Dear Sire                 4/1

Green Zone            5/1

Caius Marcius        7/1

Thefyingportrait  12/1

 

Green Zone

Our final special membership of the year is centred around the York Ebor meeting. You can start today and get 10 days membership from only £20. More details at: http://www.slh.co.uk/special-membership/

Good couple of winners for us this week which pushed the summer profits up again. Greatly looking forward to York next week.

 

horse racing

Haydock features

We go to Haydock this afternoon for their two feature races. The going is Good to Soft. The ground has been drying this morning in the light north-westerly breeze.

2.30 1m2½f  Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Numbers 4 and 9 are both out leaving 11 to post.

A competitive Group 3, in which there’s little to choose between half of the field on the best of their form.

Laraaib is the progressive performer. He takes a step up in class, having impressed when winning a handicap on latest start. His action suggests that today’s easier ground conditions shouldn’t be an issue.

Autocratic sets this seasons form standard on his performance when winning the Group 3 Brigadier Gerard at Sandown in May.

Laraaib is my marginal preference.

Difficult race to price, I would want at least 4/1 about Laraaib to get me involved.

 

Laarib

 

 

3.35 1m Dick Hern Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Sea Of Grace takes a drop in class and sets a high standard.

Although not completely straightforward, a reproduction of either of her last two runs in Group 1 company will make her very difficult to beat.

I put Sea Of Grace in as my even money favourite and go 5/1 bar.

 

Sea Of Grace (right)

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horse racing

BFS

Final day of Glorious Goodwood which like the York Dante meeting earlier in the summer, has been affected by the adverse weather conditions.

The going has eased towards the good side of soft, so we may have some form today that can be carried forward. Thankfully the non-runner count is way below the epidemic of past days.

There are six meetings across Britain today, we are looking at one race this afternoon at Goodwood and then one this evening from Hamilton. Overall the day can be summed up as a BFS… Bookmaker Friendly Saturday!

 

3.00 Goodwood: 1m4f (1m3f218y) Qatar Gordon Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo)

Crystal Ocean and Khalidi set the form standard, although there are slight doubts concerning both.

Crystal Ocean finished behind Khalidi at Royal Ascot yet is favourite to reverse those placings.

Easier ground conditions are expected to suit Crystal Ocean and I don’t anticipate there being much between them at the finish.

Both Across Dubai and Mount Moriah impressed on their latest starts and look progressive.

I provisionally price the five runners:

Crystal Ocean  15/8

Khalidi   15/8

Across Dubai   8/1

Mount Moiah 10/1

Jake’s Hill  10/1

Khalidi wiining the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket

7.30 Hamilton 5f  British Stallion Studs EBF Soba Conditions Stakes (Class 3) (3yo+)

Glenrowan Rose is in excellent form and has a solid chance of beating the officially higher rated Alpha Delphini.

I see it as follows:

Glenrowan Rose  7/4

Alpha Delphini     2/1

10/1 bar

Glenrowan Rose

 

The compilers are at odds with one another with this one. For example Bet 365 go 11/8 and 6/4 in Glenrowan’s favour whereas Hill’s see quite the reverse. Unusual for the books not to be in close agreement.

Excellent day for members yesterday with three winners from three bets only. Special introductory membership terms are available for the remainder of the summer and for the York Ebor week starting 19th August.  Full details at: http://www.slh.co.uk/special-membership/

Please note that this blog will move to Saturday only for the next few weeks.

horse racing

Goodwood bank

The going at Goodwood is Soft and there are again plenty of non-runners. I have provisionally looked at two races.

I will be getting a full going report later this morning from a senior contact at the course. The ground will unfortunately remain the dominant factor.

2.25 1m Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo)

Beat The Bank impressed on his latest start when winning a Listed race at Newmarket.

Has a solid chance of adding this Group 3 to his CV.

Again not proven on soft, although his action suggests it shouldn’t be an issue. 3/1 fav my provisional tissue which is in line with the books.

Beat The Bank winning at Newmarket

3.00 1m Betfred Mile Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+)

Four have come out, leaving eighteen to contest the £93,000 first prize.

Draw, ground and luck in-running will all play a significant part in the outcome of this highly competitive race.

Gm Hopkins continues to perform at a high level and if his jockey can manoeuvre a clear passage from stall 1 he is expected to go close.

 

Gm Hopkins

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horse racing

Success from the front

Six turf meetings today with all except Lingfield (Soft) reporting Good to Soft ground.

We are going to look at the premier races of the day from the cards at Ascot and York.

3.35 Ascot 1m4f  King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Qipco) (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo+)

My initial thoughts were that Enable was too short in the market, and I was looking to oppose her.

After thorough analysis I have come to the conclusion she deserves her position at the head of the market. However I can’t get her as short as the 11/8 currently on general offer.

Both her wins in the Epsom and Irish Oaks were very impressive, and there could well be further improvement to come. Ground conditions aren’t expected to be an issue.

Highland Reel, Jack Hobbs and Ulysses have all achieved a similar level of form when at their best.

My tissue:

Enable               13/8

Highland Reel   9/2

Jack Hobbs        9/2

Ulysses              9/2

20/1 bar

Enable

 

3.15 York 1m2½f  Sky Bet York Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Algometer has run consistently in his two Group races this season.

Success Days is a consistent front runner who is at his best on soft ground and would be my preference.

Hathal is a 5yo who is still unexposed and could improve for stepping up to 1m2f.

My original favourite Autocratic is a late non-runner and my revised market is:

Success Days 9/4

Hathal  7/2

Algometer 7/2

8/1 bar

Success Days

 

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horse racing

Derby form pointers

Four afternoon and two evening meetings across Britain today. Five report their ground on the firm side of good, whilst the evening meeting at Carlisle bucks the trend with good to soft going.

We go to Sandown today for two races including the Eclipse.

2.25 1m Coral Challenge (Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)

One of our old favourites Gm Hopkins heads the weights here and runs off only a 1lb higher than his Royal Hunt Cup winning mark.

El Hayem is a noted horse. Can be forgiven disappointing run on soft ground latest start.

Worth a close look in competitive race. Current 8/1 is fair.

Gm Hopkins wins the Royal Hunt Cup

3.35 1m2f (1m1f209y) Coral-Eclipse (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Cliffs of Moher can give a boost to the Epsom Derby form.

Dropping back in trip will suit.

Doubt about Barney Roy being as effective over this distance.

I would want at least 9/4 for Cliffs Of Moher.

 

Cliffs of Moher

 

Another good winner for my All Weather team yesterday. As with my work, the service is founded upon selective value led betting. So far this year the record stands at over £1,000 profit to £50 level stakes.

 

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Please note that there will not be a blog next week.

 

 

 

 

horse racing

Favourites upset?

Final day of Royal Ascot and it has been a thoroughly enjoyable meeting for true followers of horse racing.

We have had consistent Good to Firm going all week and it remains so today. For form students this will make the full five days a solid point of reference.

2.30 7f Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (2yo)

Sixteen to post and the clear market leader is Aidan O’Brien’s filly September.

She impressed on her debut at Leopardstown on yielding ground. Races on quicker ground today.

Masar’s debut win at Goodwood is strong form.

He looks sure to figure and at the prices is my preferred.

Currently the books go 11/10 September and 6/1 Masar.

Masar

 

4.20 6f Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (4yo+)

 

An in form Limato would set a very high standard. Winner of two Group 1’s last season.

However he has disappointed on his last two starts. It will be worth noting the level of market support.

Magical Memory’s reappearance run at York was very encouraging and he is expected to go close. Currently a general 8/1.

Magical Memory

 

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horse racing

Hurry Up Harry

Another fabulous day of world class racing from Royal Ascot. The going remains at Good to Firm and the course has been watered.

Yesterday that watering saw an ‘evening up’ of chances for the lower drawn on the straight course after the high draws had been dominant the previous day. I am anticipating that outcomes today will be more weighted towards where the pace is rather than the starting position on the course.

3.05 1m4f King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 1) (3yo)

 Crystal Ocean expected to improve for this step up to 12f.

His chance is reflected in the market who quote around the 9/4 mark.

Best Of Days was a good 2yo and is worth a very close look on seasonal reappearance.

Salouen ran far better than finishing position suggests in the Derby and is my marginal preference.  Currently a general 15/2.

The disruption caused by the weather to preparations this season is amplified by quite a few in this race.

Salouen (right)

 

3.40 6f Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo)

What a race!!

Three high class sprinters head the market.

At the prices I favour Harry Angel, who impressed greatly on his latest start at Haydock.

I expect him to reverse form with Blue Point, who beat him over c/d earlier in the season.

Caravaggio may well be a superstar, but will probably need to be to beat Harry Angel.

There is a bit of 10/3 on offer for Harry Angel, which looks about right.

Harry Angel

 

Just the three bets at Royal Ascot this week and a profit on stakes of over 100%.

horse racing

Journey to progress again?

Going to look at the Coronation Cup and the Oaks. With both races there are plenty of unknown factors to weigh up, which makes accurate pricing even more difficult.

The going at Epsom is Good and a warm cloudy day is forecast.

Epsom 3.10 1m4f  Investec Coronation Cup (Group 1) (4yo+)

Highland Reel sets the standard if at his best. He was well below form on his latest start in Dubai in unsuitable conditions.

Journey progressed throughout last season, putting up her best performance at Ascot on her final start in October. Today is her seasonal debut. She could be the one to take advantage if Highland Reel is below par.

I provisionally go:

Highland Reel 9/4

Journey 7/2

Journey

Epsom 4.30 1m4f  Investec Oaks (Group 1) (3yo)

 

Enable stayed on well to win at Chester and is expected to go close.

However there’s a chance that Rhododendron could be a higher class filly and can continue Aidan O’Brien’s excellent record in this race.

She ran an excellent second in the 1000 Guineas behind subsequent Irish Guineas winner Winter.

I provisionally go:

Rhododendron  1/1

Enable   5/1

Rhododendron

Looking to build upon a good start to the week with two winners from our only three bets plus the additional race analysis for members own use has been extremely accurate providing more selective  winners.

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horse racing

It’s raining again….

Four afternoon and two evening meetings on a busy Saturday of racing. We have soft or good to soft ground at all six British courses and with scattered showers forecast across the country this afternoon, the ground can only get softer where they land. It does make accurate pricing more difficult.

We are going to briefly touch on three races today. We start at Newbury who are expected to get rain throughout the day and then one race at Bangor where it has rained heavily this morning. I will be getting course reports from both prior to racing commencement.

1.50 Newbury

For various reasons there are question marks against all six runners.

Waiting on some late info as this could be a race to play in.

5.10 Newbury

El Hayem was noted at Chester last week when second after a troubled run

Further improvement to come, there is just a doubt concerning the ground.

El Hayem (red cap)

4.50 Bangor

Desert Sting remains on a fair handicap mark.

Softer ground isn’t a problem. 2/1 my tissue.

Desert Sting (right)

Yesterday proved a good day for the blog with 5/1 winner Tomyris at York. Get your free information pack at: www.slh.co.uk