Tag Archives: newbury

Bally thin value

February 11, 2017 Steve Lewis Hamilton

Decent day of racing ahead with three Grade 2, one Grade 3 and a listed races from Newbury and Warwick this afternoon. The going at both is soft. Plus we have Uttoxeter who are subject to a third inspection. If they do go ahead it will be attritional.

Two races for us to consider at Newbury.

Newbury 1.15 Read Paul Nicholls Exclusively At Betfair Novices´ Hurdle (CLASS 3)

High Bridge sets a high standard. Two from two this season including over C & D. Expected to win this before going to Cheltenham.

Azzerti is a best price 12/1 at present, which looks a bit of value.

My tissue:

High Bridge 11/10

Multiculture 9/2

Azzerti 11/2

Dead Right 11/2

Newbury 3.35 Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3)

2016 Cheltenham Champion bumper winner Ballyandy could well improve, but is very short in the market on hurdles form achieved.

I’m 6/1 the field on my tissue whilst the layers go as short as 7/2.

Little in the way of value at present. The bookmakers early mark up on the races of interest is too far tilted in their favour. I suppose the thinking is that Saturday punters will have a bet whatever. But as a professional you do not have bets just for the sake of it.

Should provide a few pointers for the festival this afternoon.

horse racing

33/1 Hennessy winner?

November 26, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Good to Soft is the general going today after a cold frosty night. Newcastle is on after a second inspection. We stay at Newbury for two races, starting with the Henneesy.

3.10 Newbury Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3)

Richest handicap chase this side of the Grand National. A 10/1 the field race with very few completely ruled out.

At the top end of the market Un Temps Pour Tout makes most appeal.

His from the front win over hurdles on reappearance has set him up perfectly for today’s race.

At the weights Holywell ties in with Un Temps Pour Tout on Cheltenham Festival form. However he finished tailed off on his reappearance over hurdles.

Triolo D’Alene won this race in 2013. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him run well today at big odds. Plenty of 33/1 around this morning if you fancy another each way punt following yesterday’s e/w option which came in at 5/1 having been as big as 13/2 in the morning.

Triolo D'Alene winning the Hennessy — Triolo D’Alene winning the Hennessy

3.45 Newbury bet365 Handicap Chase (For The Jim Joel Memorial Trophy) (CLASS 2)

Parsnip Pete finished behind Raven’s Tower at Aintree three weeks ago and was giving 11lb to the winner. He is expected to improve for that effort and can reverse that form today.

The form of Imjoeking’s Kelso win is working out nicely. He is a prominent runner who jumps well and is expected to figure.

I have Parsnip Pete and Imjoeking as 11/2 joint favs on my tissue.

Great day of racing which I hope you enjoy. Back on Friday, in the meantime get your free noted horses at: www.slh.co.uk

horse racing

Bally short

November 25, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

We have a good few days of racing ahead starting today with the opening day of the Hennessy meeting at Newbury and a decent card at Doncaster. We add to these two tomorrow with the ‘Fighting Fifth’ meeting at Newcastle.

Three races for us this afternoon from Newbury where the chase course is Good to Soft(soft in places) and it is Soft (good to soft in places) for the hurdlers.

Newbury 1.05

Wide open handicap that should throw up future winners.

Double W’s, Sirabad and Valseur Du Granval are all progressive.

Remiluc makes his chasing debut on a fair mark.

He impressed when winning over hurdles on latest start, his jumping suggesting that fences shouldn’t be a problem.

Difficult race to evaluate-5/1 the field.

Double W's (far side) — Double W’s (far side)

Newbury 2.10

Ballyoptic got outpaced then was staying on when falling at the last at Wetherby-he would have gone close. Nigel Twiston-Davies reported: “Ballyoptic jumped the hurdle all right but slipped on landing two strides after it, but it hasn’t dented his confidence as he’s schooled well since. We think he’d have won that day, but we would wouldn’t we? He was going very well though, and the softer ground will help here. I’m very happy with him.”

Menorah is of interest switching to hurdles, with cheek-pieces fitted.

Snow Falcon and Unowhatimeanharry are expected to progress.

Ballyoptic is my favourite, but is short in the market being as low as 15/8 this morning.

I price the main contenders as follows:

Ballyoptic 3/1

Snow Falcon 5/1

Unowhatimeanharry 11/2

Menorah 6/1

12/1 bar

Newbury 3.20

Behind Time impressed last week at Cheltenham-deserves to be at short odds.

Solomn Grundy finished 2nd in that race and was also noted. He is the E/W option.

I price the pair:

Behind Time 11/8

Solomn Grundy 3/1

10/1 bar

We look as though a spell of settled weather and with it consistent going will be with us for the current period. This provides more accurate form analysis and an increase in my own betting turnover which has had to be notably restrained of late due to a radical change in ground conditions.

Back tomorrow for the Hennessy and more

horse racing

Saturday value

October 22, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Excellent day’s racing to look forward to this afternoon. We have one race from both Cheltenham and Newbury to consider. The going at the latter is now good to soft throughout. A dry cloudy day is forecast at both courses.

Cheltenham 1.50 Randox Handicap Chase (CLASS 2)

A few fairly well handicapped horses take part in what should be a highly informative contest.

Henryville will be suited by conditions. He will be held-up and the stronger the early pace the more it will suit his running style.

Racing Pulse is fairly treated and from the in-form Rebecca Curtis stable.

Full Shift is well handicapped but has to prove he stays.

I marginally favour the chance of Alternatif, who is well weighted with conditions not an issue, and is available at double figure odds.

I go 8/1 the field on my provisional tissue

Newbury 2.20 Worthington´s OCSL Stakes (Registered As The St Simon) (Group 3)

Godolphin have the two market leaders with Frontiersman and Memorial Day.

Both step up in class having impressed in handicaps on last starts.

Memorial Day should go very close, having won after an eleven month absence. Stepping back up in trip could see him progress further.

My tissue:

9/2 Memorial Day

6/1 Frontiersman

10/1 Bar

An informative day yesterday and I expect today and tomorrow to provide more future pointers. Very shortly I will be compiling my early season noted horses shortlist. You can get a free copy by either applying for the information pack via: http://www.slh.co.uk/free-information-pack/ or emailing me at: steve@slh.co.uk

horse racing, Uncategorized

Royal Ascot repeat?

September 17, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Plenty of non-runners at Newbury, many deterred by the soft ground after the midweek ‘monsoon.’ At Ayr the going is Good to Soft and light rain is forecast this afternoon.

One race from each for us today.

1.45 Newbury Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes (Group 3)

Formerly known as the Arc trial, this 1m 3f race attracts five runners.

Hardwicke stakes winner Dartmouth is better than latest run suggests and sets the form standard. He is expected to handle today’s conditions.

Algometer is an early season noted horse returning from a break after running in the Derby. Ground conditions will suit and he can progress.

Robin Of Navan returned to form on latest start in a high class All Weather race at Kempton.

I price the five runners as follows:

Dartmouth 13/8

Algometer 7/2

Robin Of Navan 7/2

Ayrad 9/1

Tashaar 12/1

2.00 Ayr William Hill Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group 3)

6f sprint for 2 y.o.’s with the winner collecting over £36,000.

Bletchley will be suited by conditions and is expected to return to the form which saw her finish 2nd in the Albany at Royal Ascot.

Drumfad Bay may find this trip too short.

Partitia is progressive, comes here looking for a hat-trick of victories.

Bletchley is a best priced 3/1, which is in line with my thinking.

bletchley-near-side — Bletchley (near side)

As we saw yesterday with Clem Fandango, my early season noted horses shortlist is picking up winners. For a free copy and an information pack, go to: www.slh.co.uk

horse racing, Uncategorized

St. Wilfrid’s African Mission

August 13, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Eight races on Channel 4 this afternoon and we are going to quickly look at three of them. Two at Newbury where the going is again Good to Firm and the feature race of the year at Ripon to be run on good ground. At both courses have been watered and a dry cloudy day is forecast.

3.05 Newbury Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3)

Kings Fete looks to have an excellent chance of following up his win at Goodwood. His previous run at Royal Ascot saw Ryan Moore have to snatch him up when going for a gap between horses and despite running on his chance had gone. He is not completely straightforward and this is factored into my pricing. As is the likelihood of a tactical battle amongst the small field.

Battersea makes only his second outing of the season having wintered in Meydan.

Humphrey Bogart won his Derby trial at Lingfield and has subsequently run in two Derby’s: Epsom and then at Belmont.

I have provisionally priced as follows pending a report from the course:

Kings Fete 4/5

Battersea 5/1

Humphrey Bogart 6/1

10/1 bar

4.10 Newbury Hungerford Stakes (Group 2)

Home Of The Brave narrowly beat Convey earlier this season at Haydock and I expect him to confirm that form.

In their last outings Home Of The Brave finished second in a Group 2 at Goodwood whilst Convey won a listed event at Pontefract.

The market looks about right and there is no great angle into the race.

I price the market leaders as follows:

Home Of The Brave 13/8

Convey 9/4

9/1 bar

3.55 Ripon Great St Wilfrid Stakes (CLASS 2)

A highly competitive sprint handicap named after the patron saint of Ripon.

Son Of Africa caught the eye on latest start and is expected to go well at decent odds.

He has dropped to a fair handicap mark and conditions will suit.

Current 16/1 looks about right.

Our special membership starts today to cover the York Ebor meeting. More details here

horse racing, Uncategorized, york

On the Rajar

August 12, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Opening day of the Newbury Hungerford meeting and we have two races from there to look at this afternoon. The going is Good to Firm and has been watered. A warm sunny day is forecast.

Newbury 2.50: A competitive nine runner handicap with two of particular interest in what could be a tactical battle.

Marcano would have gone close to winning with a clear run on latest start at Sandown last week. Steps back up to a mile today.

He is a ‘hold up’ horse who needs things to fall his way. Well campaigned this season and looks sure to go well.

Exceeding Power is another who is ridden just off the pace. Last outing was at Newmarket over today’s trip at the end of July. Finished third having raced keenly.

He is running consistently well and is expected to figure. Gets 4lb from Marcano. I find it hard to split the pair as my tissue shows:

Marcano 7/2

Exceeding Power 7/2

Lulani 6/1

Steal The Scene 13/2

10/1 Bar

Newbury 3.55: The premier race of today’s Newbury card. A listed 5f sprint for 2 y.o. fillies.

The unbeaten Mrs Danvers impressed on latest start at this course. Just holds Stormy Clouds on that form although I feel the market has them too far apart.

Like Mrs Danvers, Rajar comes here off the back of three consecutive victories. Impressed at Newmarket on her latest start and is preferred in a very tight race. The drop back from 6 to 5f shouldn’t be a problem. After the Newmarket race assistant trainer Tom Ward pinpointed this race as the next step in her progression.

Paul Hanagan is the fourth different jockey for Dainty Dandy today in her three race career. Showed improved form at Ascot last time but the drop back to 5f could be a problem.

My tissue:

Rajar 4/1

Dainty Dandy 9/2

Mrs Danvers 9/2

8/1 Bar

Just returned from a short break in which I met up with a few contacts to assess plans for the late flat/early jumps campaigns. First day back provided a 10/1 winner from my early betting.

We have a special membership for York Ebor week at just £20. Membership starts tomorrow and runs to Sunday 21st. More details here.

horse racing

Value is the key

July 16, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Seven race fixtures across Britain today plus the Irish Oaks meeting at the Curragh. Channel 4 have a good mix of flat and jumps from their eight scheduled races. We are going to look at two races this afternoon.

3.00 Newbury bet365 Stakes (Registered As The Steventon Stakes) (Listed Race)

With Retrieve now a non-runner, seven declared for the £37,000 prize money on offer. The fast ground has been watered and we have some rain forecast.

There are various doubts concerning all runners. None come into this with a victory on their last run.

Scottish is the most appealing having run a satisfactory race on his reappearance for his new stable. The form of last season’s win at Ayr is solid and today’s conditions will suit.

Gm Hopkins is an old favourite of ours from last season and like Mokarris yesterday can be forgiven a poor outing at Royal ascot in unsuitable conditions.

Third in we have Master Carpenter ridden by the in-form Frederick Tylicki. Seven rides in the past two days have brought three winners and four seconds.

My provisional tissue pending a course report from one of my senior contacts:

Scottish 6/4

GM Hopkins 11/2

Master Carpenter 8/1

Spark Plug 8/1

10/1 bar

The books are shorter than me with the favourite and I would expect the market to ease off once we get nearer to post time.

4.30 Market Rasen Betfred “Supports Jack Berry House” Novices´ Handicap Chase (CLASS 3)

Good ground that has been watered and showers expected.

A wide open race with a couple at big prices worth a close look.

Both Fort Worth and Cusheen Bridge are potentially fairly handicapped on form shown over hurdles. They have shown plenty of ability in novice chases and are fairly priced going into a handicap chase for the first time.

Market-Rasen-Racecourse — Market Rasen racecourse

At the 16/1 and 20/1 on offer for both horses I would be looking to get some value out of this.

The books are betting at a general 124% which reflects the open nature of the race. It may be worth looking at the exchanges should the head of the market start contracting.

As ever in true professional backing, value is the key.

horse racing

Stoute vs Gosden

July 15, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

After a lot of low grade racing so far this week, we have some quality to go at from Newbury plus an interesting maiden at Nottingham.

Good ground at most of the tracks today with the exception being Haydock who report soft ground with rain forecast.

Two races to look at.

Newbury 3.40: A 2 y.o. listed race with the favourite Mokarris of interest.

Impressed on debut at Haydock before disappointing in the Coventry at Royal Ascot on soft ground. With so many at Royal Ascot, the form in unsuitable conditions can be forgiven. I would expect a return to form on today’s faster ground.

I have put Mokarris in at 3/1 on my provisional tissue. The bookmakers are taking no chances and go as low as 6/4. Would expect some ease in price once the market gets more fluidity.

Nottingham 4.05: The market is dominated by To Eternity and Honorina.

To Eternity was noted on debut when just failing to overturn the odds-on favourite at Doncaster. It was a victory for Michael Stoute on that occasion and the Gosden filly has another Stoute 3 y.o. to overcome today in the shape of Honorina.

Honorina has been off the course for eleven months after her two decent runs as a 2 y.o.

It looks an interesting battle between the pair.

Mehmas – one from the free noted horses shortlist

Three bets for us so far this week, with two successful. There are special terms now available and you can get my free information pack. The pack also includes my noted horses. The latest winner from the shortlist being Mehmas who won well at the Newmarket July meeting last week.

For more details, visit my website.

Back tomorrow morning as we have a good mix of flat and jumps to look at.

horse racing

Good Run?

May 14, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Focus on Newbury today. The ground yesterday was described as either ‘dead’ or ‘gluey’ but a dry night and morning sunshine have allayed fears that we would have unsuitable conditions. The official going is now Good to Soft. Clerk of the course Richard Osgood said: “We’re not too far off good ground. There are just a couple of areas that are softer than others but we will see how they dry out with this nice weather set to continue all day.”

2.45 Newbury Al Rayyan Stakes (Registered As The Aston Park Stakes) (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (4yo+)

Eagle Top is a high class and will win if anywhere near his best.

However two below form runs at the end of last season in his Arc trial and the Arc itself have to be excused. Conditions shouldn’t be an issue. Difficult to price accurately because of that dip in form at the season end, but the 4/5 available would be a gift if Eagle Top is back to his mid-season standard shown in the two Ascot runs.

Ryan Moore takes the ride on Carnachy for the first time as the filly looks to extend her unbeaten run.

4.30 Newbury Al Zubarah London Gold Cup (Open Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo)

Good Run was noted on his final start last season when staying on well to win a 9f nursery handicap at Newmarket and is expected to run a big race.

Conditions are suitable, and fitness not an issue with the Godolphin horses going well. The current 6/1 seems about right.

In all, a really good day of racing that should provide plenty of pointers for the season ahead.

Professional backer – Horse Racing Advisory Service