Tag Archives: sandown

Support the stable staff today

March 11, 2017 Steve Lewis Hamilton

We stay at Sandown for two more races today. The going remains on the good side to soft.

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2.25 Sandown

Wide open handicap, where Shanroe Santos could be a vulnerable favourite.

His jumping was less than fluent at Warwick and although that may improve, the current 11/4 is on the short side.

My provisional tissue:

Shanroe Santos 9/2

Upswing 9/2

Willoughby Hedge 9/2

Masters Hill 11/2

Fourth Act 11/2

14/1 bar

4.45 Sandown

Another trappy handicap to finish the card.

The hood was left off Alcala on latest start, when he was well beaten before falling two out. The headgear returns today but he is a very risky proposition.

Twenty Eight Guns continues to progress and Dance Floor King is running well.

Last year’s winner of this race Morning Reggie has been out of form since.

I price as follows:

Twenty Eight Guns 7/2

Dance Floor 7/2

Alcala 4/1

Gores Island 6/1

Morning Reggie 8/1

Aerlite Supreme 10/1

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horse racing

Rose vs Ardkilly

March 10, 2017 Steve Lewis Hamilton

Good side to Soft at Sandown where we look at two races. Also the Cheltenham Festival racing charity fundraiser is set to get going. The exclusive preview will be despatched this afternoon and by signing up now you will get your membership ready for tomorrow.

Sandown 3.05

Ardkilly Witness has a 5lb pull in the weights with Rathlin Rose on their C/D form from three weeks ago, when Rathlin Rose won pretty comfortably.

Ceasar Milan had been running well in PTP’s though was below form on his latest start.

Ardkilly Witness is suited by this track and is expected to run Rathlin Rose very close. But I would want the insurance of something closer to an each way price before getting too involved.

My provisional tissue:

Rathlin Rose 2/1

Ardkilly Witness 3/1

Ceasar Milan 7/2

Captain Guy Disney made history at Sandown Park on Friday 17 February by becoming the first person to win a race under Rules wearing a prosthetic limb.
The 34-year-old amateur jockey lost his lower right leg after being injured when a rocket-propelled grenade hit his vehicle, while serving with the Light Dragoons in Afghanistan in July 2009.
Having ridden beforehand, remarkably, it didn’t take long for Guy to be back in the saddle and nor did it take long for his desire to race-ride emerge.
Even though it took considerable effort to convince the British Horseracing Authority to approve his amateur licence, it was finally granted.
Partnering the David Pipe-trained Rathlin Rose, Guy rode to victory on Friday in the Royal Artillery Gold Cup — a race restricted to riders who have represented the Armed Forces.

Sandown 3.40

Kayf Adventure runs in his first handicap after impressing last time at Fontwell.

He looks progressive, but hasn’t been missed in the market.

However not a favourite I would oppose lightly.

In comparison Fly Camp, also making his handicap debut, looks on a high mark on form achieved.

I go:

Kayf Adventure 6/4

Fly Camp 13/2

Shaama 13/2

Midnight Sapphire 13/2

10/1 bar

Each year at Cheltenham Festival time we raise much needed donations to the Lambourn Valley Housing Trust (Registered charity No. 1049742.) The trust build affordable homes for stable staff and their families. Helping to keep valuable experience and expertise in racing.

For just £25 you will get:

Cheltenham preview. I will be assessing the home challenge whilst leading Irish racing expert Donn McClean covers the Irish horses. Racing broadcaster of the year John Hunt also provides his insight as does lead ITV commentator Richard Hoiles plus we have the intriguing stats for trend analysts.
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Full access to my work as a professional backer from Saturday 11th to Sunday 19th March (Festival dates 14th – 17th)

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horse racing

Icing value?

February 17, 2017 Steve Lewis Hamilton

Interesting cards at both Fakenham and Sandown this afternoon. We are going to look at two races from the latter where the going is on the heavy side of Soft.

2.10 Sandown

Pougne Bobbi was impressive on latest start at Ludlow last week and is progressive. In theory the jockey’s 7lb claim negates his penalty for that victory.

Cepage and Icing On The Cake could also improve. Icing On The Cake unseated at the third in that Ludlow race having dug deep to win at Newbury on his previous outing. There are a few firms quoting double figures for his chances.

My tissue:

Pougne Bobbi 2/1

Cepage 5/1

Icing On The Cake 5/1

Dream Bolt 11/2

12/1 bar

3.15 Sandown

The historic Royal Artillery Gold Cup is restricted to military amateur riders. First run in 1863. I don’t generally get too involved with amateur races. However, this 3m chase is worthy of some consideration.

Rathlin Rose ran well returning from an absence on latest start.

Ardkilly Witness goes well at this track.

Troika Steppes has been running well this season.

I assess them as follows.

Rathlin Rose 9/4

Troika Steppes 3/1

Ardkilly Witness 3/1

8/1 bar

It has been a bit quieter than I would have liked this week, but we have some decent cards over the coming days which should provide betting opportunities. Just two bets so far for the week and both profitable. Discover more about my work and advance plans for the Festival. You can also download my new app. Go to: www.slh.co.uk

horse racing

Payback time?

February 4, 2017 Steve Lewis Hamilton

The seven race card from Sandown is our focus today. A mixed going report with the ground reported as Soft (Heavy in places) on the chase course and Heavy (Soft on back straight) for the hurdlers. Fascinating day and we are looking at the opening two races.

12.40 Sandown Betfred “Home Of Goals Galore” Novices´ Hurdle (CLASS 3)

Coeur De Lion has course & distance form and is preferred over Rather Be. The latter giving a stone to his younger rival.

I go:

Coeur De Lion 5/4

Rather Be 7/4

12/1 bar

A few of the books have Rather Be as their current favourite. It will be interesting to see how the market develops.

1.15 Sandown Betfred “Treble Odds On Lucky 15´s” Handicap Chase (CLASS 2)

Just the seven declared but this is a wide open handicap. My preferred two are Bright New Dawn and Grey Gold.

Bright New Dawn was noted when finishing behind Bold Henry over C&D last month.

That was his first start for current stable who paid £56,000 for him at Goff’s September sales last year. Venetia Williams has saddled the winner of this race for the past two years.

The softer the ground the better for the veteran 12y.o. Grey Gold, who looks sure to figure at the finish.

I go 4/1 the field on my private tissue.

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horse racing

Mad to step up again?

December 3, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Four good meetings for us this afternoon with four races apiece from Sandown and Aintree on Channel 4. The going remains Good/Good to Soft. A cloudy and dry day is forecast across the country.

Two races for us this afternoon, both at Sandown.

12.20 Sandown Barry Rawlings “What A Year” “National Hunt” Novices´ Hurdle (CLASS 3)

Cruiseaweigh was impressive when winning his bumper at Aintree early last month and is of most interest.

Bardd bumper form isn’t as strong.

Dashing Oscar and Crystal Lad set hurdles form standard.

I have Cruiseaweigh in at 7/4 on my provisional tissue.

3.00 Sandown Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) (CLASS 1)

Un De Sceaux sets a high standard if near his best.

Ar Mad is the unexposed improver.

I go 6/4 Un De Sceaux and 9/2 Ar Mad.

Un De Sceaux on his way to Arkle victory

Just the one bet for us yesterday, a strong and successful lay of a heavily backed short odds favourite. With the lays I specialise in going against the market by opposing favourites who I consider poor value. Yesterday I set a maximum lay limit of 2.4, our bet was returned at 2.1.

By concentrating on favourites we have much greater liquidity and by having a maximum cut-off price, I eliminate the dangerous practice of laying blind. On all lays this year we have a success rate of well over 70%, quite a few have been odds-on.

horse racing

More is less…

December 2, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

After an inspection racing goes ahead at Sandown but due to lingering frost patches Exeter has been called off. The going at Sandown is Good/Good to Soft. We have two races to analyse.

12.40 Sandown Coldunell Finance Amateur Riders´ Handicap Chase (For The John Dunsdon Memorial Cup) (CLASS 3)

Generally don’t get too heavily involved in amateur races like this. But it is of interest with the favourite being plenty short enough.

More Buck’s could improve but at the current 2/1 is too tight in the market.

Azure Fly and Vikekhal come into this race in form and have a similar chance to the favourite. I have all three as 4/1 co fav’s on my prov tissue.

1.50 Sandown Zurich Insurance PLC Novices´ Limited Handicap Chase (CLASS 3)

Difficult race to evaluate with various doubts concerning all seven runners.

Masterplan jumped and travelled well until weakening quickly on his latest start. He has since undergone a breathing operation.

Antartica De Thaix doesn’t look a straightforward ride.

Volvalien form isn’t strong.

4/1 the field my provisional tissue.

With both races I would want to see how the market develops.

Back tomorrow morning as we have Sandown and Aintree leading a very good afternoon of racing.

horse racing

Eclipse tester

July 2, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Yet again the ground is the major talking point as we look at Sandown and Haydock today. At Sandown the going has eased slightly to a general Good to Soft. Clerk of the course Andrew Cooper reported: “I could show you some good ground out there but taking all things into account after a little bit of rain yesterday evening and having moved onto fresh ground I am just going to call it good to soft.” A dry fairly warm day is forecast.

In contrast the ground at Haydock has deteriorated to Soft (Heavy in places) and light showers are expected this afternoon.

As covered yesterday, the uncertainty over racing conditions between entry and raceday is a nagging problem for connections. There are plenty more non-runners today.

3.45 Sandown Coral-Eclipse (Group 1)

£525,000 in total prize money with just on £300,000 to the winner. We have seven to post with the O’Brien and Charlton yards both having likely pacemakers for The Gurkha and Time Test respectively.

Time Test and My Dream Boat are closely matched on a strict line through Western Hymn.

Time Test is a previously noted horse who I expect to go close today.

However The Gurkha was staying on strongly at the finish of the St James Palace at Ascot and the step up in trip is expected to bring further improvement.

Compared to the general odds on offer, I have the market leaders closer together on my tissue:

The Gurkha 11/10

Time Test 3/1

My Dream Boat 5/1

Hawkbill 14/1

Western Hymn 20/1

2.50 Haydock bet365 Old Newton Cup (CLASS 2)

There are a few hold-up horses amongst the market leaders. In testing conditions it is a dangerous game to try and rapidly make up ground as the line approaches.

Penglai Pavilion is worth a look in this wide open handicap. Always behind at Ascot on latest start and never placed to challenge. His form over hurdles last season suggests he retains plenty of ability and he can figure today. Ground conditions shouldn’t be an issue.

Some 14/1 still around which would offer a bit of value.

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horse racing

Bobby, Jackie and Roger?

July 1, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Great disparity in going across the country today. Down in Devon Newton Abbot report Good to Firm whilst towards the South East Sandown is Good to Soft.

Travel to the three northern meetings and we have soft ground at both Haydock and Doncaster. Whereas Beverly, just an hour from Doncaster, race on Good ground.

The past few weeks have been a guessing game for connections as to which conditions their horses will face on the day. Goes a long way to explaining the large number of horses already pulled out today.

We are going to quickly look at two races.

Sandown 4.00: What About Carlo is already a non-runner, leaving five to post in this valuable listed race. Roger Charlton sent Ayrad to Chantilly for a competitive Group 2 for his last outing. Showed up well and weakened in the latter stages on soft ground. Drops back to 2f today. Has shown he can handle the conditions. Cheek pieces fitted for the first time.

For me, there are doubts concerning trip and ground with main market rivals Spark Plug and Gm Hopkins.

I put Ayrad in at 7/4 on my private tissue.

Ayrad (left) locked in a three way fight to the line

Newton Abbot 3.45: Tricky handicap with a case to be made for a few here. On a point of value, Listen and Learn looks overpriced at the 14/1 on offer in places. Richard Johnson takes the ride on O’Neill’s only runner today. Worth watching the market.

Back tomorrow when Channel 4 concentrate on seven races from Haydock and Sandown including the Lancashire Oaks and the Eclipse.

horse racing, Uncategorized

Support the Stable Staff

February 19, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Fakenham has passed its second morning inspection and there will be added interest as Victoria Pendleton rides in the Foxhunters Chase at 4.10.

Quick look at three races today. At Fakenham one that looks overpriced is Raise A Spark in the 2.30. Had every chance when falling on latest two starts. However, emphasis may be more on a clear round than competing with the current odds-on favourite.

The Sandown card has some appeal. In the 2.10 Blandfords Gunner returns after a good win at Leicester in early December. Expected to continue his progression. 3/1 on my tissue which is roughly in line with the current market.

The best race on the card is the 2.45. A Grade 2 in which Jessbess Dream makes a quick reappearance having finished second at Warwick last Saturday.

Katie Too heads the market. Unbeaten from her two runs this season. Whilst she impressed in her latest victory, the current 5/4 seems too short in a competitive race. I make her 3/1 on my provisional tissue.

Katie Too on her way to victory at Fontwell

Good week for us so far with both our bets being profitable. They have been a strong bet on a 20 length 7/4 winner and a successful lay of a 4/5 favourite.

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horse racing, Uncategorized

Testing Value

December 4, 2015 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Good two days of quality racing begins today at Sandown aided by the cards at Aintree and Wetherby tomorrow.

So far this week we have had two dominant factors: A moderate standard and testing conditions. Both conspire to make true betting value a rare commodity.

Of a morning I alert my select group of clients of value in the markets having priced up every race of interest to a 100% book without prior reference to the bookmakers prices.

This week has been notable in the lack of morning value as quite a few horses under consideration have fallen below my valuation only to ease once the market gained liquidity. For example yesterday with Renoyr at Market Rasen. I had him at 3/1 on my tissue whilst he was an early 9/4 generally. Drifted out to my price and won well.

I do fully appreciate the difficulties faced by the compilers in assessing lower grade horses on heavier ground. Testing conditions do level the playing field. This is a big factor in handicaps. As most cards contain four or five handicaps, it is something you must consider greatly. You can have the best horse in the race, but if carrying a heavy burden the sheer effort of carrying that weight becomes more profound. Over the years I have had many trainers say to me that every pound over 11.7 is like 2lb extra.

When assessing the market I always look to get the favourite beaten. Heavy conditions and burdensome weights can provide an advantage for the more astute backer.

Turning back to today, we have a interesting handicap in the 2.05 at Sandown. The market is undecided about Dancing Shadow. He jumped well on chase debut and can improve. The early 4/1 has dried up, whether the current 3/1 is value is debatable. A stronger market than we have seen so far this week will tell us more.

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Professional backer – Horse Racing Advisory Service