Tag Archives: slh

Soft not terrible for Ivan

June 17, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

We are at the mercy of the rain clouds at Royal Ascot today. Clerk of the course, Chris Stickels explains:

“We’re still soft at the moment. We had 1.5mm of rain late yesterday evening but it’s been dry since. We’re forecast showers, some of them possibly thundery, but if we miss them I may look at changing the going by the time racing starts. That’s only if we miss the rain.”

With that in mind, I am going to concentrate on early value for our preview today and then brief clients later once we have a better view of the going.

3.40: Quiet Reflection deserves to be a short odds favourite after her emphatic victory at Haydock last time. Left Donjuan Triumphant and La Rioja behind her by a good margin.

The value for me is Log Out Island. Made all to win a listed race at Newbury just under two weeks ago and won unchallenged.

I go 2/1 Quiet Reflection and 5/1 Log Out Island.

5.00: As you would expect at this meeting – a wide open big money handicap.

The one that interests me is Ivan Grozny. Returns to the flat after Aintree success on a fair handicap mark. Guaranteed to go on soft ground. The early 14/1 is being snapped up and is now as low as 10/1.

Back tomorrow for the final day at Ascot which has already rewarded me with a 7/1 winner from my selective betting.

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Victory Sign?

June 10, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Six meetings in Britain today, split equally between afternoon and evening. We are looking at two afternoon races at York and Newton Abbot respectively. Both courses have been watered and the ground is currently on the firm side of good. A warm dry day is forecast at both courses.

York 4.50: Sign of A Victory started his flat career on turf at Ascot in early May. It did not go well as he dwelt at the start and never got in a position to challenge.

He remains well handicapped and will be suited by the step up to 1m 6f today.

I put him in at 9/4 on my tissue.

Newton Abbot 3.20: Lets Hope So had every chance when falling two out at Southwell on latest start just over three weeks ago. The faller was tracking today’s market rival Avispa before coming to grief. Whilst others were hampered by the fall, Avispa was unaffected and won by 5 lengths.

Lets Hope So enjoys a 6lb pull in the weights today and is open to improvement. But she has been on the floor and a lot depends on her confidence with that experience still fresh.

I have the pair in as my 7/4 joint favourites.

We have a Royal Ascot membership special available. Membership starts for tonights three cards. More details on my website.

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Diomed for Decorated?

June 3, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Two races for us today from Epsom, who report Good to Soft.

Epsom 3.10: Arod and Decorated Knight head the market.

Arod won the Diomed last year and followed up at Royal Ascot. Comeback run saw defeat at Ascot, despite being well backed.

Arod’s jockey for those two big victories last summer was Andrea Atzeni, he takes the ride on Decorated Knight today following her move to Roger Charlton.

Decorated Knight has prospects of reversing this year’s Ascot form with Arod when they were separated by just over a length. A hold-up horse, Atzeni will need to get cover from a wide draw.

I go 3/1 Arod and 4/1 Decorated Knight.

Decorated Knight (centre green) — Decorated Knight and Andrea Atzani (centre, green) winning at Goodwood

Epsom 4.30: If Minding stays, she wins the Oaks. But we are in unknown territory with the distance and more testing ground than usual. The last few years have seen the Oaks winner improve out of all recognition. None more so than the complete outsider of the field getting up in the final strides last year.

Second favourite is Skiffle. She should improve further and conditions are expected to suit.

I have the favourite in at Evens and Skiffle at 11/2. Which is about their general price. You can make a case for plenty of the others in this.

Minding (1,000 guineas)

Having put a lot into today’s Epsom card, the layers and I are in general agreement with the main pricing.

Back tomorrow for Derby Day.

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Never Mind The Quality

May 27, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Plenty of racing today with six meetings ranging from Musselburgh in the north, right down to Brighton on the south coast.

However, it is a matter of ‘never mind the quality, feel the width.’ A lot of today’s offering is guesswork maidens or low grade handicaps.

Two races for us at Worcester this evening to consider.

The going is Good and the ground has been watered.

6.20: Five runners for this Class 4 Novice Chase. Ballybroker Breeze carries a 6lb higher weight than all of his rivals with 11-4. Won on his chase debut at Perth last month. Southfield Vic has the best form but isn’t trustworthy. His overall level and experience at both hurdles and fences makes him the favourite here. Given his best, he should win, but that best is never guaranteed.

I price them up as follows:

Southfield Vic 6/4

Ballyboker Breeze 3/1

Fort Worth 3/1

10/1 Bar

7.50: I have Truckers Glory and Our Reward in at 9/4 joint favourites. My marginal preference would be for Truckers Glory with the experienced conditional Jonathan Moore claiming 5lb.

Better cards for us tomorrow.

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Grey Day at Goodwood?

May 20, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Good ground at all of today’s five turf meetings with the more northerly tracks reporting Good to Firm. Two races for us to quickly look at today.

Goodwood 3.30: Just the four runners contest for the £40,000 on offer. Prize Money and Algometer head the market taking up around 90% of the book. Both finished second on their seasonal debuts. However, I have a question mark over the run from Algometer. Looked to run well but the level of that form from the grey is questionable. I make him 9/4 on my private tissue, het gets a general 6/4 quote from the layers.

Stratford 8.50: Hallingham improved on latest start when winning at Plumpton earlier this month and landed something of a gamble. Has every chance of following up if staying the extra 2f. I price him at a provisional 3/1.

Back tomorrow when we have a feast of top class racing dominated by the Goodwood, Haydock, Newmarket and York cards in the afternoon.

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No Second For Step?

May 13, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Two races for us this afternoon. The going at both York and Newmarket is Good to Firm. The latter has been watered.

York 4.05: The market leaders are Flying Officer and Second Step. Flying Officer is the current 6/4 favourite. Seasonal debut at Ascot late last month over 2m. No extra in final furlong and finished third. Dropped back by 2f today.

Second Step last appeared in the Canadian International at Woodbine in October. Has won first time out for the past two years. Expected to stay this trip and can go very close.

This could end up a tactical race with no confirmed front-runners. On a flat galloping track like York, Second Step may have the finishing advantage over the proven stayer, Flying Officer.

I have put the pair in as 2/1 joint favourites on my provisional tissue for this intriguing contest.

Newmarket 4.25: Taffeta Lady was noted on debut when running a big priced 3rd at Sandown. Form of that race was franked yesterday by the 2nd in that race, Shall We.

Difficult race to price with plenty of unknown factors. I would go around 2/1. Currently 6/4 with most layers.

Back tomorrow as we have another great day of top quality action.

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Making Plans For Nigel

May 6, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Five British turf meetings for us today with good ground at all of them.

We start this afternoon at Market Rasen with Detour Ahead in the 2.50. After a long absence she hinted at a return to form last time at Bangor having been pulled up on her two return outings. Steps up in grade today and has winning form on good ground.

I make her 4/1 on my private tissue.

Our next race is the opener from this evening’s card at Ascot. Nigel is a horse I noted early last year. He failed to deliver on the promise shown despite being a warm order in the market on a number of occasions.

Has recently moved from the John Gosden yard to Richard Hughes in Upper Lambourn. Steps up in distance to 2 miles and is worth a look.

Difficult race to price accurately. The bookmakers are going a cautious 9/2.

Back tomorrow morning when we have Ascot and Haydock as the highlights.

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Gold for Kerry?

April 29, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Plenty of rain around Britain and Ireland today to freshen up the ground in below average temperatures. I am going to look at two later races.

We start with the Punchestown Champion Hurdle at 5.30. Vroum Vroum Mag comes up against the boys for the first time and has a considerable weight advantage in her bid to make it 10 from 10 since she moved to the Mullins yard.

I just can’t get her in at the 5/4 – 11/8 currently on offer. 9/4 on my tissue.

Our other race of interest is the 6.50 at Bangor. Magheral Express makes his first start for Kerry Lee since leaving Jonjo O’Neill.

Fairly handicapped on his early hurdles form and could well respond to the change of stable.
I have him at 9/2. He has drifted slightly this morning to 5/1 with some firms.

With both races, I want to see how the ground is riding before firming up my prices.

Newmarket report their advance going for the weekend is Good to Soft. It could be part of our focus tomorrow.

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Parsnip @ Perth

April 22, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Last few days of the 2015/16 jumps season before we have a break and start the new season on Thursday at Towcester.

One race for us to look at this afternoon, the 2.30 from what has been a very good three days at Perth. Parsnip Pete starts for the first time this year since running poorly at the Cheltenham International meeting in December. The 10 y.o. steps down in class today and is on a favourable handicap mark if retaining some of his old ability. Difficult race to price up, I would go 7/2 the field on my provisional tissue.

We are ending the season strongly. Three winners from four bets so far this week.

Have a few visits with flat contacts lined up next week. The emphasis will be to significantly build upon the profits made so far this year over the summer campaign.

Back tomorrow morning. Let’s hope we can narrow things down like we did last week in the Scottish National with Vicente and Seeyouatmidnight. The winner was well backed from the morning 22/1 into 14/1.

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Top value

April 16, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Two races for us today at Ayr where the ground is Good to Soft.

1.50 Ayr Weatherbys Private Bank Novices´ Limited Handicap Chase (CLASS 2)

Very open contest, where it’s possible to make a case for all seven runners.

At current odds Top Billing is the pick for me. Ran well on his return to fences at Carlisle and will appreciate this step up to 3m. Is fairly handicapped and expected to go well.

Top weight and favourite Vivaldi Collonges looks the main threat. Has past winning form over course and distance.

I price the market leaders as follows:

Vivaldi Collonges 7/2

Top Billing 9/2

One For Art 6/1

8/1 bar

4.10 Ayr Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (5yo+)

With a strong Irish challenge, impossible to price with confidence.

Plenty of focus will be on the Irish National fourth, Folsom Blue as trainer Mouse Morris attempts to land a unique national treble by winning the Grand National plus Irish and Scottish versions in the same season.

Home trained runners Seeyouatmidnight and Vicente are fairly handicapped and both will appreciate this stamina test. The pair are currently 18/1 and 22/1 respectively.

Jockeys 5lb claim could prove to be useful on Seeyouatmidnight.

After the abandonment of Newbury, we have three other turf meetings remaining today in Britain. The ground at all will be fairly testing. A lot of trainers will have entered their horses for today in the expectation that the ground would be far better. As we can see from the substantial number of non-runners, many have decided against taking their chances in unsuitable conditions.

Professional backer – Horse Racing Advisory Service