Tag Archives: steve lewis hamilton

St. Wilfrid’s African Mission

August 13, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Eight races on Channel 4 this afternoon and we are going to quickly look at three of them. Two at Newbury where the going is again Good to Firm and the feature race of the year at Ripon to be run on good ground. At both courses have been watered and a dry cloudy day is forecast.

3.05 Newbury Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3)

Kings Fete looks to have an excellent chance of following up his win at Goodwood. His previous run at Royal Ascot saw Ryan Moore have to snatch him up when going for a gap between horses and despite running on his chance had gone. He is not completely straightforward and this is factored into my pricing. As is the likelihood of a tactical battle amongst the small field.

Battersea makes only his second outing of the season having wintered in Meydan.

Humphrey Bogart won his Derby trial at Lingfield and has subsequently run in two Derby’s: Epsom and then at Belmont.

I have provisionally priced as follows pending a report from the course:

Kings Fete 4/5

Battersea 5/1

Humphrey Bogart 6/1

10/1 bar

4.10 Newbury Hungerford Stakes (Group 2)

Home Of The Brave narrowly beat Convey earlier this season at Haydock and I expect him to confirm that form.

In their last outings Home Of The Brave finished second in a Group 2 at Goodwood whilst Convey won a listed event at Pontefract.

The market looks about right and there is no great angle into the race.

I price the market leaders as follows:

Home Of The Brave 13/8

Convey 9/4

9/1 bar

3.55 Ripon Great St Wilfrid Stakes (CLASS 2)

A highly competitive sprint handicap named after the patron saint of Ripon.

Son Of Africa caught the eye on latest start and is expected to go well at decent odds.

He has dropped to a fair handicap mark and conditions will suit.

Current 16/1 looks about right.

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horse racing, Uncategorized, york

On the Rajar

August 12, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Opening day of the Newbury Hungerford meeting and we have two races from there to look at this afternoon. The going is Good to Firm and has been watered. A warm sunny day is forecast.

Newbury 2.50: A competitive nine runner handicap with two of particular interest in what could be a tactical battle.

Marcano would have gone close to winning with a clear run on latest start at Sandown last week. Steps back up to a mile today.

He is a ‘hold up’ horse who needs things to fall his way. Well campaigned this season and looks sure to go well.

Exceeding Power is another who is ridden just off the pace. Last outing was at Newmarket over today’s trip at the end of July. Finished third having raced keenly.

He is running consistently well and is expected to figure. Gets 4lb from Marcano. I find it hard to split the pair as my tissue shows:

Marcano 7/2

Exceeding Power 7/2

Lulani 6/1

Steal The Scene 13/2

10/1 Bar

Newbury 3.55: The premier race of today’s Newbury card. A listed 5f sprint for 2 y.o. fillies.

The unbeaten Mrs Danvers impressed on latest start at this course. Just holds Stormy Clouds on that form although I feel the market has them too far apart.

Like Mrs Danvers, Rajar comes here off the back of three consecutive victories. Impressed at Newmarket on her latest start and is preferred in a very tight race. The drop back from 6 to 5f shouldn’t be a problem. After the Newmarket race assistant trainer Tom Ward pinpointed this race as the next step in her progression.

Paul Hanagan is the fourth different jockey for Dainty Dandy today in her three race career. Showed improved form at Ascot last time but the drop back to 5f could be a problem.

My tissue:

Rajar 4/1

Dainty Dandy 9/2

Mrs Danvers 9/2

8/1 Bar

Just returned from a short break in which I met up with a few contacts to assess plans for the late flat/early jumps campaigns. First day back provided a 10/1 winner from my early betting.

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horse racing

Ladies Day?

July 30, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Final day of Glorious Goodwood and an interesting card at Newmarket are the focus this afternoon. We are going to look at one race from each meeting.

The going at Goodwood is again Good to Firm and has been watered. Good at Newmarket and a dry cloudy day is forecast at both tracks.

3.45 Goodwood Qatar Stewards´ Cup (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2)

This is such a competitive race with so many variables that it makes limited appeal as a serious betting medium.

However I do want to touch on the chance of Dancing Star. She won a highly competitive and valuable 3yo handicap at Newmarket on her latest start and is very progressive. That came after two runs in June – a second place at York in unfavourable ground and a win at this course and distance.

Looking back at last year: Magical Memory won that same Newmarket race off the same handicap mark as Dancing Star before going on to win this race, again of the same mark.

Dancing Star looks to have a decent draw and ground conditions are fine. She is sure to run a massive race.

The other 3yo in the race is Raucous who is well worth keeping a close eye on.

If his high draw [20] doesn’t disadvantage him, he is capable of a big run.

Dancing Star is 5/1 generally with Raucous in at 16/1.

dancing-star (Nearest) — Dancing Star (Nearest)

2.15 Newmarket British Stallion Studs EBF Chalice Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1)

Fireglow has the single best piece of form when 4th in the 1000 Guineas. However she has performed below that level in recent starts and has to prove she will stay this trip. She has run creditably three times at Newmarket in her twelve race career, picking up a victory here at the end of last season.

Lady Of Camelot ran well in the Lancashire Oaks and is sure to figure.

Sweeping Up is decent, stays well but is exposed.

Abingdon is the horse with most potential. A big filly with the physical scope to improve. Stepping up to 12f looks sure to suit and she can progress past her rivals.

My tissue:

Abingdon 15/8

Lady Of Camelot 3/1

Fireglow 5/1

Sweeping Up 6/1

16/1 bar.

No blog for us next week as I am visiting a number of contacts in both this country and overseas. You can find out more about my work and get a free copy of my noted horses at: www.slh.co.uk

horse racing, Uncategorized

Another repeat performance?

July 29, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Day 4 at Glorious Goodwood and three races for us to look at this afternoon. Plus a quick look at a few horses from yesterday that have been noted in defeat.

The going is officially Good to Firm. Currently the ground is loose on top but should dry out as racing approaches, providing there is no further rain. The top bend has been watered to stop horses from slipping.

Goodwood 2.35: Emotionless has something to prove having been well beaten on soft ground at Royal Ascot having his first run as a 3 y.o.

Cheek-pieces are fitted for the first time in a bid to recapture his excellent 2 y.o. form which saw him win his two opening races before running poorly in the Dewhurst.

As we saw with Ulysses on Wednesday, the step down in grade today could be the answer for Emotionless to recapture past glory.

Promising Run has a visor fitted and the filly is worth a look at the current 7/1 on offer.

Thikrayaat heads the market at a general 9/4, which looks short to me. I go 3/1 the field.

Goodwood 3.10: Franklin D is a handicap ‘good thing’. A repeat of his 6 length victory at Newmarket just on two weeks ago, wins him this race. I have him in at 9/4 provisionally, but whether you want to take such odds in a big field competitive handicap is open to debate.

Goodwood 3.45: Muthmir won this race last year and carries 4lb lower today. Cheek-pieces are fitted for the first time to galvanise what has been a fairly lacklustre campaign this year. If the cheek-pieces work he will go close.

Selectively picked our way through Goodwood over the first three days and the highlight has been our strong bet on Big Orange yesterday. The relentless galloper looks to be bound for the Melbourne Cup. A race he finished fifth in last year but has definitely improved and grown since then.

Two worth noting from yesterday who both suffered narrow defeats: I am convinced that Blue Point will win plenty more races. His lack of experience got him beat by a more campaigned Mehmas in the Richmond Stakes.

Stargazer must be kept on side. He will improve again and will be suited by some ease in the ground.

Back tomorrow for the final day of Glorious Goodwood.

horse racing, Uncategorized

Reel deal today?

July 23, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Two major races for us this afternoon at York and Ascot respectively. Good to Firm at both courses and watering has taken place. There is a common theme in both races – a reversal of form from that experienced in the testing conditions endured from a few weeks back. Most notably at Royal Ascot and at the Sandown Eclipse meeting. As we have already seen recently, some of that form can have a line drawn through it now we are back to more customary mid-summer ground.

3.35 York Sky Bet York Stakes (Group 2)

Although Time Test sets the standard on the best of his form, odds of 2/5-4/11 are prohibitive. Ground conditions weren’t suitable in the Eclipse, but that was still a disappointing run. A return to the imperious Royal Ascot form of 2015 would be worth the admission money.

As his trainer Roger Charlton reported: “He’s come out of Sandown well and he’s in good form,” His best performances have been on fast ground and he hasn’t really had it like this since Royal Ascot last year. We take each race as it comes but the Juddmonte would be a natural follow-on from this race.”

Commenting on stablemate Countermeasure who set the pace in the Eclipse and lines up against Time Test today: “Countermeasure has always run from the front and he’ll do it again at York. A good pace is important for Time Test, but then it is for all of them. It’s a small field and we don’t want a messy race.”

With only 5 runners I can’t see any great betting angle into this race.

I price the race as follows:

Time Test 1/2

Mahsoob 6/1

Air Pilot 10/1

Mondialiste 10/1

Counterm 100/1

4.30 Ascot King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored by Qipco) (Group 1)

Despite sweating up before the start of the Hardwicke, racing arkwardly and Seamie Heffernan dropping the whip, Highland Reel was just held by Dartmouth in a duelling finish.

I expect Highland Reel with Ryan Moore now on board to reverse the Ascot form. Heffernan takes the ride on AP O’Brien’s other entry, Sir Isaac Newton.

Wings Of Desire ran well to finish a creditable fourth in the Derby and can progress.

Erupt caught the eye on latest start at Saint-Cloud, where never nearer than at the finish in a slowly run race.

Just on £700, 000 to the winner alone and prize money goes down to sixth place.

My prices are:

Highland Reel 5/2

Dartmouth 7/2

Erupt 9/2

Wings Of Desire 9/2

Sir Isaac Newton 10/1

33/1 Bar

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horse racing, Uncategorized

An Ethel win?

July 22, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Meetings from three of the Grade 1 tracks today with Ascot this afternoon plus Newmarket and York this evening.

We are going to look at two afternoon races away from the higher profile venues.

Uttoxeter 1.40: Ethelwyn has yet to see the winners enclosure in her eleven career starts. For me, she is risky at short odds.

Two outings this season and on both occasions narrowly beaten. Has the ability to win, but finds little for pressure.

Angel Face has a similar level of form at her best and gets the experience of Tom O’Brien in the saddle for the first time today. His last ride at this course saw him cajole an unlikely victory.

This looks more open than the betting suggests as a couple of others can’t be dismissed.

I price the market leaderrs as follows:

Ethelwyn 2/1

Angel Face 7/2

Middleton’s Minx 4/1

Miss Mobot 8/1

Book At Bedtime 10/1

Ethelwyn_BlackIvory-_9859 — Ethelwyn leading Black Ivory on the gallops.

Thirsk 3.40: Good to Firm ground here, which has been watered.

Glitter Girl and Starlight Romance head the market in this maiden fillies stakes for 2 y.o.’s. Both will be suited by this step up to 7f.

Glitter Girl showed plenty of ability on debut over 6f, staying on well after being slightly outpaced.

Starlight Romance was noted on debut over 6f at York and run a similar race on her second start over the same c/d-outpaced before staying on. She looks to be crying out for 7f and further.

My early tissue has Glitter Girl in at 7/4 with Starlight Romance slightly shorter at 9/4 than the general odds on offer.

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Value is the key

July 16, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Seven race fixtures across Britain today plus the Irish Oaks meeting at the Curragh. Channel 4 have a good mix of flat and jumps from their eight scheduled races. We are going to look at two races this afternoon.

3.00 Newbury bet365 Stakes (Registered As The Steventon Stakes) (Listed Race)

With Retrieve now a non-runner, seven declared for the £37,000 prize money on offer. The fast ground has been watered and we have some rain forecast.

There are various doubts concerning all runners. None come into this with a victory on their last run.

Scottish is the most appealing having run a satisfactory race on his reappearance for his new stable. The form of last season’s win at Ayr is solid and today’s conditions will suit.

Gm Hopkins is an old favourite of ours from last season and like Mokarris yesterday can be forgiven a poor outing at Royal ascot in unsuitable conditions.

Third in we have Master Carpenter ridden by the in-form Frederick Tylicki. Seven rides in the past two days have brought three winners and four seconds.

My provisional tissue pending a course report from one of my senior contacts:

Scottish 6/4

GM Hopkins 11/2

Master Carpenter 8/1

Spark Plug 8/1

10/1 bar

The books are shorter than me with the favourite and I would expect the market to ease off once we get nearer to post time.

4.30 Market Rasen Betfred “Supports Jack Berry House” Novices´ Handicap Chase (CLASS 3)

Good ground that has been watered and showers expected.

A wide open race with a couple at big prices worth a close look.

Both Fort Worth and Cusheen Bridge are potentially fairly handicapped on form shown over hurdles. They have shown plenty of ability in novice chases and are fairly priced going into a handicap chase for the first time.

Market-Rasen-Racecourse — Market Rasen racecourse

At the 16/1 and 20/1 on offer for both horses I would be looking to get some value out of this.

The books are betting at a general 124% which reflects the open nature of the race. It may be worth looking at the exchanges should the head of the market start contracting.

As ever in true professional backing, value is the key.

horse racing

Stoute vs Gosden

July 15, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

After a lot of low grade racing so far this week, we have some quality to go at from Newbury plus an interesting maiden at Nottingham.

Good ground at most of the tracks today with the exception being Haydock who report soft ground with rain forecast.

Two races to look at.

Newbury 3.40: A 2 y.o. listed race with the favourite Mokarris of interest.

Impressed on debut at Haydock before disappointing in the Coventry at Royal Ascot on soft ground. With so many at Royal Ascot, the form in unsuitable conditions can be forgiven. I would expect a return to form on today’s faster ground.

I have put Mokarris in at 3/1 on my provisional tissue. The bookmakers are taking no chances and go as low as 6/4. Would expect some ease in price once the market gets more fluidity.

Nottingham 4.05: The market is dominated by To Eternity and Honorina.

To Eternity was noted on debut when just failing to overturn the odds-on favourite at Doncaster. It was a victory for Michael Stoute on that occasion and the Gosden filly has another Stoute 3 y.o. to overcome today in the shape of Honorina.

Honorina has been off the course for eleven months after her two decent runs as a 2 y.o.

It looks an interesting battle between the pair.

Mehmas – one from the free noted horses shortlist

Three bets for us so far this week, with two successful. There are special terms now available and you can get my free information pack. The pack also includes my noted horses. The latest winner from the shortlist being Mehmas who won well at the Newmarket July meeting last week.

For more details, visit my website.

Back tomorrow morning as we have a good mix of flat and jumps to look at.

horse racing, Uncategorized

Newmarket boss?

July 9, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Tremendous day of racing ahead with Channel 4 screening ten races. Two from Ascot and four from both Newmarket and York. We are going to look at one race each from the latter. At both courses the going is Good to Firm.

It is an ultra-competitive day with plenty of prize money on offer. The percentage mark up in many races leaves little scope for value, especially each way in the big handicaps. If you are looking at any of the bigger priced horses, the exchanges should be consulted.

3.40 York John Smith´s Silver Cup Stakes (Listed Race)

Quest For More looked to have a solid chance on quick ground. However rain is forecast and any easing of the ground is a worry. Just the one outing this season when runner up at this course/distance. The stable are keen to get a run into him and with Goodwood being on his priority list this could be a prep if conditions turn against him. The current 11/4 looks risky given the doubts.

Seamour appeared the winner of the Northumberland Plate before being run down close home. Ground conditions aren’t an issue although drop back in trip could be. I still expect him to be in the ‘shake up.’

With uncertainty regarding the ground at present, I am not going to finalise my prices until I get a course report later and have watched the opening races.

Seamour would be my preference at this stage

5.10 Newmarket bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2)

Bossy Guest caught the eye in the Hunt Cup at Ascot, finishing the race strongly. He is handicapped to go close. He does tend to linger at the stalls however and this has become an issue. The yard are keen for him to replicate his good form at home into a strong racecourse performance.

Conditions are suitable and if breaking on terms I would expect a big run in a wide open race. Currently around 14/1 which is in keeping with my provisional pricing.

Good day for us yesterday as we were well ahead of the gamble on Alice Springs. 6/1 early turned into a winning 5/2 S.P. For more details about the service go to my website: www.slh.co.uk

horse racing

Ladies Day

July 8, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Unlike many of the high profile meetings over recent weeks. Newmarket today will be run on ground more fitting to the time of year.

We have Good to Firm going and some watering has taken place. A warm dry afternoon is forecast.

Two races for us today from Newmarket.

3.45: The market is tight around Bletchley and Nasimi. They are the two I would like to focus upon. Two races only for Bletchley, a big odds win on debut at Nottingham which earned her a trip to Royal Ascot. She showed her inexperience in the Albany before staying on well for a close run second. That form sets the standard.

Nasimi has race just once, a very eye catching debut at Haydock. She did most things wrong, but still powered home for an easy win. Significant improvement can be expected.

On my tissue I make Bletchley 3/1 favourite with Nasimi in at 4/1.

Bletchley (near) — Bletchley (near side) at Royal Ascot

4.15: Usherette is a warm order with a general quote of 4/6 and 8/11. Although a handful of firms want to take her on. How much they will actually lay is questionable.

She is unbeaten in all four starts this year. Impressed on latest start when winning comfortably at Royal Ascot on soft ground. She sets the recent form standard.

When Alice Springs ran on the Friday, the ground had improved but her luck in running definitely had not. My view is that given a clear run she would have won that day.

She was very impressive in her final 2 y.o. race at this course and has plenty of improvement to come. I expect Ryan Moore to keep her out of trouble this time.

I have Usherette in at Evens and Alice Springs at 4/1.

A lot is being made of the Royal Ascot form, but the huge difference in conditions at that meeting and what we will get today has to be factored in.

Good start for us at Newmarket yesterday. Four races analysed, two winners at 3/1 and 11/4, plus my reservations regarding The Grey Gatsby were confirmed as the 11/4 favourite never seriously challenged the winner.

Back tomorrow for the final day at the Newmarket July meeting.

Professional backer – Horse Racing Advisory Service