Tag Archives: steve lewis hamilton

Eclipse tester

July 2, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Yet again the ground is the major talking point as we look at Sandown and Haydock today. At Sandown the going has eased slightly to a general Good to Soft. Clerk of the course Andrew Cooper reported: “I could show you some good ground out there but taking all things into account after a little bit of rain yesterday evening and having moved onto fresh ground I am just going to call it good to soft.” A dry fairly warm day is forecast.

In contrast the ground at Haydock has deteriorated to Soft (Heavy in places) and light showers are expected this afternoon.

As covered yesterday, the uncertainty over racing conditions between entry and raceday is a nagging problem for connections. There are plenty more non-runners today.

3.45 Sandown Coral-Eclipse (Group 1)

£525,000 in total prize money with just on £300,000 to the winner. We have seven to post with the O’Brien and Charlton yards both having likely pacemakers for The Gurkha and Time Test respectively.

Time Test and My Dream Boat are closely matched on a strict line through Western Hymn.

Time Test is a previously noted horse who I expect to go close today.

However The Gurkha was staying on strongly at the finish of the St James Palace at Ascot and the step up in trip is expected to bring further improvement.

Compared to the general odds on offer, I have the market leaders closer together on my tissue:

The Gurkha 11/10

Time Test 3/1

My Dream Boat 5/1

Hawkbill 14/1

Western Hymn 20/1

2.50 Haydock bet365 Old Newton Cup (CLASS 2)

There are a few hold-up horses amongst the market leaders. In testing conditions it is a dangerous game to try and rapidly make up ground as the line approaches.

Penglai Pavilion is worth a look in this wide open handicap. Always behind at Ascot on latest start and never placed to challenge. His form over hurdles last season suggests he retains plenty of ability and he can figure today. Ground conditions shouldn’t be an issue.

Some 14/1 still around which would offer a bit of value.

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Bobby, Jackie and Roger?

July 1, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Great disparity in going across the country today. Down in Devon Newton Abbot report Good to Firm whilst towards the South East Sandown is Good to Soft.

Travel to the three northern meetings and we have soft ground at both Haydock and Doncaster. Whereas Beverly, just an hour from Doncaster, race on Good ground.

The past few weeks have been a guessing game for connections as to which conditions their horses will face on the day. Goes a long way to explaining the large number of horses already pulled out today.

We are going to quickly look at two races.

Sandown 4.00: What About Carlo is already a non-runner, leaving five to post in this valuable listed race. Roger Charlton sent Ayrad to Chantilly for a competitive Group 2 for his last outing. Showed up well and weakened in the latter stages on soft ground. Drops back to 2f today. Has shown he can handle the conditions. Cheek pieces fitted for the first time.

For me, there are doubts concerning trip and ground with main market rivals Spark Plug and Gm Hopkins.

I put Ayrad in at 7/4 on my private tissue.

Ayrad (left) locked in a three way fight to the line

Newton Abbot 3.45: Tricky handicap with a case to be made for a few here. On a point of value, Listen and Learn looks overpriced at the 14/1 on offer in places. Richard Johnson takes the ride on O’Neill’s only runner today. Worth watching the market.

Back tomorrow when Channel 4 concentrate on seven races from Haydock and Sandown including the Lancashire Oaks and the Eclipse.

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Derby double?

June 25, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Two races for us this afternoon as we go to Newmarket and the Curragh for the Irish Derby. The going on the July course at Newmarket is soft and there are already plenty of non-runners. Light rain is forecast during racing. At the Curragh it is Good to Yielding.

3.55 Newmarket John Sunley Memorial Criterion Stakes (Group 3)

Two weeks ago at York we concentrated on Mutakayyef and Muwaary in the Ganton Stakes. They finished first and third respectively.

Muwaary was noted on his return after almost two years off and looks sure to go well.

His temperament could be an issue, as he got himself “excited” during the prelims at York.

So Beloved ties in with the consistent Breton Rock. Little to choose between them as they finished with just under a length apart at Haydock last time.

I marginally prefer Breton Rock, with the soft ground not a problem.

My provisional pricing is:

Breton Rock 7/2

So Beloved 4/1

Muwaary 9/2

8/1 Bar

5.20 Curragh Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1)

Six of these run in the Epsom Derby and I would be very surprised if today’s winner doesn’t come from the two that finished 1st and 3rd. Namely Harzand and Idaho.

Unfortunately that is reflected in the market.

There is an argument that on today’s quicker ground on a flatter track Idaho has a realistic chance of turning Epsom form around with Harzand. Added to this the niggling problems that Harzand has encountered in preparation. But he had problems before Epsom and won going away.

AP O’Brien has three of the nine declared in this, all connected to the Magnier/Tabor ownership. Along with Idaho we have Shogun who struggled in the Epsom Derby and Claudio Monteverdi. It could prove a tactical battle.

If Harzand is the same horse he was at Epsom he will win. But I wouldn’t want to be taking the current odds-on about him.

My tissue:

Harzand 1/1

Idaho 9/4

Red Verdon 10/1

16/1 bar

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How’s Your Luck?

June 24, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Such is the nature of fixture planning these days that we have a meeting at Cartmel this afternoon, nothing tomorrow and then resume on Sunday.

A quick look at two races from Cartmel.

3.35: Shady Glen beat Wiffy Chatsby last Sunday at Worcester in a scruffy race.

Sean Bowen on Wiffy Chatsby lost an iron and had to kick the other out. Despite all efforts the impediment cost any chance.

Should Shady Glen put up a good run Wiffy Chatsby’s chances would be boosted when he runs in the following race.

4.40: Good of Luck put up a strong showing when winning on the flat at Newbury earlier this month. At the current double figure odds, he looks overpriced in this competitive hurdle.

Whilst the going is declared as good at Cartmel there is a chance of rain at the track later today.

The other meetings will all have varying degrees of soft ground to contend with. Both the meetings at Newmarket and Yarmouth are prone to non-runners as connections decide to wait for better ground.

Back tomorrow as Newcastle and Newmarket are the headliners, plus it is Derby day in Ireland.

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Tin to strike gold?

June 18, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Final day of Royal Ascot and as it has been all week, the going is the primary factor for many. Clerk of the course Chris Stickels said this morning, “It is good to soft here and we’ve been dry since a little bit of rain on Friday night. We may see a further change to the going on the straight course later to reflect the drying conditions.”

We are looking at two races today.

3.05 Ascot Wolferton Handicap (Listed Race)

Maleficent Queen is progressive and is expected to figure in a wide open affair. Comes here on a winning run of five, including both her starts this season. Both victories achieved on Good to Soft.

The market is headed by another 4y.o. – the Godolphin owned Best Of Times. Currently priced at around 4/1 with Maleficent Queen second best at 8/1.

4.20 Ascot Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1)

Just the nine to post, but a truly global challenge with entries from Australia, America, France and Hong Kong contesting for the £600,000 prize money. My preference is for the Newmarket trained, The Tin Man. Just one outing this season when smartly winning a good quality race at Windsor last month.

The Tin Man is a highly progressive horse, with conditions to suit and winning form at the track.

I go 3/1 on my private tissue whilst the books are a general 7/2 – 4/1. It is very tight at the head of the market.

Fantastic afternoon of racing and I hope you have a good day.

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Soft not terrible for Ivan

June 17, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

We are at the mercy of the rain clouds at Royal Ascot today. Clerk of the course, Chris Stickels explains:

“We’re still soft at the moment. We had 1.5mm of rain late yesterday evening but it’s been dry since. We’re forecast showers, some of them possibly thundery, but if we miss them I may look at changing the going by the time racing starts. That’s only if we miss the rain.”

With that in mind, I am going to concentrate on early value for our preview today and then brief clients later once we have a better view of the going.

3.40: Quiet Reflection deserves to be a short odds favourite after her emphatic victory at Haydock last time. Left Donjuan Triumphant and La Rioja behind her by a good margin.

The value for me is Log Out Island. Made all to win a listed race at Newbury just under two weeks ago and won unchallenged.

I go 2/1 Quiet Reflection and 5/1 Log Out Island.

5.00: As you would expect at this meeting – a wide open big money handicap.

The one that interests me is Ivan Grozny. Returns to the flat after Aintree success on a fair handicap mark. Guaranteed to go on soft ground. The early 14/1 is being snapped up and is now as low as 10/1.

Back tomorrow for the final day at Ascot which has already rewarded me with a 7/1 winner from my selective betting.

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Victory Sign?

June 10, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Six meetings in Britain today, split equally between afternoon and evening. We are looking at two afternoon races at York and Newton Abbot respectively. Both courses have been watered and the ground is currently on the firm side of good. A warm dry day is forecast at both courses.

York 4.50: Sign of A Victory started his flat career on turf at Ascot in early May. It did not go well as he dwelt at the start and never got in a position to challenge.

He remains well handicapped and will be suited by the step up to 1m 6f today.

I put him in at 9/4 on my tissue.

Newton Abbot 3.20: Lets Hope So had every chance when falling two out at Southwell on latest start just over three weeks ago. The faller was tracking today’s market rival Avispa before coming to grief. Whilst others were hampered by the fall, Avispa was unaffected and won by 5 lengths.

Lets Hope So enjoys a 6lb pull in the weights today and is open to improvement. But she has been on the floor and a lot depends on her confidence with that experience still fresh.

I have the pair in as my 7/4 joint favourites.

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Diomed for Decorated?

June 3, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Two races for us today from Epsom, who report Good to Soft.

Epsom 3.10: Arod and Decorated Knight head the market.

Arod won the Diomed last year and followed up at Royal Ascot. Comeback run saw defeat at Ascot, despite being well backed.

Arod’s jockey for those two big victories last summer was Andrea Atzeni, he takes the ride on Decorated Knight today following her move to Roger Charlton.

Decorated Knight has prospects of reversing this year’s Ascot form with Arod when they were separated by just over a length. A hold-up horse, Atzeni will need to get cover from a wide draw.

I go 3/1 Arod and 4/1 Decorated Knight.

Decorated Knight (centre green) — Decorated Knight and Andrea Atzani (centre, green) winning at Goodwood

Epsom 4.30: If Minding stays, she wins the Oaks. But we are in unknown territory with the distance and more testing ground than usual. The last few years have seen the Oaks winner improve out of all recognition. None more so than the complete outsider of the field getting up in the final strides last year.

Second favourite is Skiffle. She should improve further and conditions are expected to suit.

I have the favourite in at Evens and Skiffle at 11/2. Which is about their general price. You can make a case for plenty of the others in this.

Minding (1,000 guineas)

Having put a lot into today’s Epsom card, the layers and I are in general agreement with the main pricing.

Back tomorrow for Derby Day.

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Never Mind The Quality

May 27, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Plenty of racing today with six meetings ranging from Musselburgh in the north, right down to Brighton on the south coast.

However, it is a matter of ‘never mind the quality, feel the width.’ A lot of today’s offering is guesswork maidens or low grade handicaps.

Two races for us at Worcester this evening to consider.

The going is Good and the ground has been watered.

6.20: Five runners for this Class 4 Novice Chase. Ballybroker Breeze carries a 6lb higher weight than all of his rivals with 11-4. Won on his chase debut at Perth last month. Southfield Vic has the best form but isn’t trustworthy. His overall level and experience at both hurdles and fences makes him the favourite here. Given his best, he should win, but that best is never guaranteed.

I price them up as follows:

Southfield Vic 6/4

Ballyboker Breeze 3/1

Fort Worth 3/1

10/1 Bar

7.50: I have Truckers Glory and Our Reward in at 9/4 joint favourites. My marginal preference would be for Truckers Glory with the experienced conditional Jonathan Moore claiming 5lb.

Better cards for us tomorrow.

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Grey Day at Goodwood?

May 20, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Good ground at all of today’s five turf meetings with the more northerly tracks reporting Good to Firm. Two races for us to quickly look at today.

Goodwood 3.30: Just the four runners contest for the £40,000 on offer. Prize Money and Algometer head the market taking up around 90% of the book. Both finished second on their seasonal debuts. However, I have a question mark over the run from Algometer. Looked to run well but the level of that form from the grey is questionable. I make him 9/4 on my private tissue, het gets a general 6/4 quote from the layers.

Stratford 8.50: Hallingham improved on latest start when winning at Plumpton earlier this month and landed something of a gamble. Has every chance of following up if staying the extra 2f. I price him at a provisional 3/1.

Back tomorrow when we have a feast of top class racing dominated by the Goodwood, Haydock, Newmarket and York cards in the afternoon.

Professional backer – Horse Racing Advisory Service