Tag Archives: steve lewis hamilton

No Second For Step?

May 13, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Two races for us this afternoon. The going at both York and Newmarket is Good to Firm. The latter has been watered.

York 4.05: The market leaders are Flying Officer and Second Step. Flying Officer is the current 6/4 favourite. Seasonal debut at Ascot late last month over 2m. No extra in final furlong and finished third. Dropped back by 2f today.

Second Step last appeared in the Canadian International at Woodbine in October. Has won first time out for the past two years. Expected to stay this trip and can go very close.

This could end up a tactical race with no confirmed front-runners. On a flat galloping track like York, Second Step may have the finishing advantage over the proven stayer, Flying Officer.

I have put the pair in as 2/1 joint favourites on my provisional tissue for this intriguing contest.

Newmarket 4.25: Taffeta Lady was noted on debut when running a big priced 3rd at Sandown. Form of that race was franked yesterday by the 2nd in that race, Shall We.

Difficult race to price with plenty of unknown factors. I would go around 2/1. Currently 6/4 with most layers.

Back tomorrow as we have another great day of top quality action.

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Making Plans For Nigel

May 6, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Five British turf meetings for us today with good ground at all of them.

We start this afternoon at Market Rasen with Detour Ahead in the 2.50. After a long absence she hinted at a return to form last time at Bangor having been pulled up on her two return outings. Steps up in grade today and has winning form on good ground.

I make her 4/1 on my private tissue.

Our next race is the opener from this evening’s card at Ascot. Nigel is a horse I noted early last year. He failed to deliver on the promise shown despite being a warm order in the market on a number of occasions.

Has recently moved from the John Gosden yard to Richard Hughes in Upper Lambourn. Steps up in distance to 2 miles and is worth a look.

Difficult race to price accurately. The bookmakers are going a cautious 9/2.

Back tomorrow morning when we have Ascot and Haydock as the highlights.

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Gold for Kerry?

April 29, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Plenty of rain around Britain and Ireland today to freshen up the ground in below average temperatures. I am going to look at two later races.

We start with the Punchestown Champion Hurdle at 5.30. Vroum Vroum Mag comes up against the boys for the first time and has a considerable weight advantage in her bid to make it 10 from 10 since she moved to the Mullins yard.

I just can’t get her in at the 5/4 – 11/8 currently on offer. 9/4 on my tissue.

Our other race of interest is the 6.50 at Bangor. Magheral Express makes his first start for Kerry Lee since leaving Jonjo O’Neill.

Fairly handicapped on his early hurdles form and could well respond to the change of stable.
I have him at 9/2. He has drifted slightly this morning to 5/1 with some firms.

With both races, I want to see how the ground is riding before firming up my prices.

Newmarket report their advance going for the weekend is Good to Soft. It could be part of our focus tomorrow.

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Parsnip @ Perth

April 22, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Last few days of the 2015/16 jumps season before we have a break and start the new season on Thursday at Towcester.

One race for us to look at this afternoon, the 2.30 from what has been a very good three days at Perth. Parsnip Pete starts for the first time this year since running poorly at the Cheltenham International meeting in December. The 10 y.o. steps down in class today and is on a favourable handicap mark if retaining some of his old ability. Difficult race to price up, I would go 7/2 the field on my provisional tissue.

We are ending the season strongly. Three winners from four bets so far this week.

Have a few visits with flat contacts lined up next week. The emphasis will be to significantly build upon the profits made so far this year over the summer campaign.

Back tomorrow morning. Let’s hope we can narrow things down like we did last week in the Scottish National with Vicente and Seeyouatmidnight. The winner was well backed from the morning 22/1 into 14/1.

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Top value

April 16, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Two races for us today at Ayr where the ground is Good to Soft.

1.50 Ayr Weatherbys Private Bank Novices´ Limited Handicap Chase (CLASS 2)

Very open contest, where it’s possible to make a case for all seven runners.

At current odds Top Billing is the pick for me. Ran well on his return to fences at Carlisle and will appreciate this step up to 3m. Is fairly handicapped and expected to go well.

Top weight and favourite Vivaldi Collonges looks the main threat. Has past winning form over course and distance.

I price the market leaders as follows:

Vivaldi Collonges 7/2

Top Billing 9/2

One For Art 6/1

8/1 bar

4.10 Ayr Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (5yo+)

With a strong Irish challenge, impossible to price with confidence.

Plenty of focus will be on the Irish National fourth, Folsom Blue as trainer Mouse Morris attempts to land a unique national treble by winning the Grand National plus Irish and Scottish versions in the same season.

Home trained runners Seeyouatmidnight and Vicente are fairly handicapped and both will appreciate this stamina test. The pair are currently 18/1 and 22/1 respectively.

Jockeys 5lb claim could prove to be useful on Seeyouatmidnight.

After the abandonment of Newbury, we have three other turf meetings remaining today in Britain. The ground at all will be fairly testing. A lot of trainers will have entered their horses for today in the expectation that the ground would be far better. As we can see from the substantial number of non-runners, many have decided against taking their chances in unsuitable conditions.

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Red Day?

April 15, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Two races for us to quickly look at this afternoon and then I would like to touch on the new Flat season.

Firstly to the Fontwell 2.10. Billy Merriott has raced just four times since his last victory in November 2012 and has failed to finish in three of them. However, his last outing at Doncaster just over four months ago showed that he could retain some of his old ability. I trust Harry Fry has put plenty of work into the 10 y.o. Impossible race to price with confidence, I would provisionally put Billy Merriott in at 9/4.

A marked step up in class as we go to Ayr for their premier race on the card. The 3.45 is a listed race worth over £25,000 to the winner. Definitly Red and Double Shuffle are at the head of the market.

Definitly Red drops 5lb from his lacklustre showing at the Cheltenham Festival and is on a favourable mark. My negative is the 2m 4f trip may be too sharp.

The bookmakers are taking no chances, with a general 11/4 quote. 9/2 on my tissue.

Pity we have lost Newbury today, but the two days of Newmarket this week have been interesting.

On Wednesday I analysed three additional races for clients personal use as part of the comprehensive racing service provided. Two over the jumps winning at 13/8 and 6/1 plus highlighting the Royal Ascot prospects of Sutter County. Whilst winning narrowly at prohibitive odds, he will come on from that run in fairly testing ground.

Just one flat horse for us the following day, another narrow winner, this time at 3/1.

As a professional, I like to see the flat season take shape before getting involved. Account betting will start in the forthcoming weeks.

Back tomorrow morning.

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Update

April 8, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

After a lot of hard work on today’s cards, there is not a lot of value to be had.

At Aintree the three handicaps are incredibly difficult to unravel and I am not going to get sucked in to bookmakers benefit races.

The 3.25 is there for Vautour on the Cheltenham run. This leaves the 2.50 where I go 7/4 Un Temps Pour Tout and 3/1 Blaklion, which leaves minimal value against the books.

Finally the 2.40 Newcastle. Mumgos Debut is dropped in class today in an attempt to get the 8 y.o. into the winners enclosure for the first time in seventeen attempts. 2/1 my tissue.

Back tomorrow.

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2/1 the pair

April 8, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Two races for us to briefly look at today. Both for races that are very tight at the top of the market.

We start in the 2.05 Newcastle.

Looks a match between Lake View Lad and Lamool. The market has them at 4/7 and 6/4 respectively.

Lake View Lad disappointed when stepped up in class at Kelso last time. Drops markedly back to Class 4 again today.

Lamool returns from a six month break. Has won above this level in the past.

Both are off the same weight and have 5lb claimers. I have the pair as even money joint-fav’s.

On to the 2.15 at Aintree.

Limini impressed when winning the Mares’ Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham and takes on the boys today.

It’s another Mullins vs Henderson match up with Buveur D’air the main danger. I go 2/1 the pair.

Will be doing a quick update for Aintree around 1.30 today.

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Grand National preview

April 7, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

The modern day Grand National is very different to the race that was run back in the day.

Modification to the fences and increased prize money have made it a wide open handicap, with the vast majority of runners having some sort of chance.

A brief look at some of the major contenders. I will be analysing the race in greater detail Friday/Saturday when we have a clearer picture.

Last year’s winner Many Clouds is favourite at around 8/1.

He appeared to delight everyone with his latest success at Kelso, where he travelled and jumped well and was visually impressive. However the form of that Kelso race is suspect.

This year’s renewal looks stronger than the 2015 race and at the current odds Many Clouds is of no value.

Silviniaco Conti returned to form at Ascot when blinkered for the first time following the previously worn cheek-pieces. A high class horse that is handicapped to win, it is his possible stamina limitations that concern me.

The Last Samuri put in a career best run when winning at Doncaster on latest start and could improve again. He looks to have a good mix of speed and stamina and jumps well.

At the 10/1 on offer I would keep him onside.

Holywell and Cause Of Causes were in action at Cheltenham, both horses returning to something near their best.

Cause Of Causes is a thorough stayer who was never nearer than at the finish in last year’s National. At the time of writing he is not sure to get a run as he needs a few above him in the handicap to drop out. If he does take part and his jockey can keep him closer to the leaders he will be staying on at the finish. Around 20/1 is fair.

Holywell was beaten by a very well handicapped horse at Cheltenham and if staying the National trip must go well.

Bishops Road comes from the in-form Kerry Lee stable. He stayed on strongly to win the National trial at Haydock. Soft ground would bring him into the reckoning. Currently best priced 25/1.

Back tomorrow morning for a look at the Friday card.

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Aintree Special

April 1, 2016 Steve Lewis Hamilton Leave a comment

Before looking at today’s racing, just a brief word regarding the Aintree Special membership.

From just £20 (£22.50 to include bets by text), you will get my work from tomorrow right through to the Sunday after the Grand National.

Highlights from a very profitable Aintree last year were:

Rajdhani Express WON 10/1
Saphir Du Rheu WON 7/4
Whisper WON 7.6

All were straight win bets and as you can see, we cater for the traditional and exchange backers.

There is plenty of detail on my website and you can secure your place now at: http://slh.co.uk/index.php/aintree-spec-2016

Newbury start a good two day meeting and there are two races I want to touch on this afternoon.

In the 3.00, I was impressed by Roycano’s performance when winning at Fakenham last time out. This was the 6 y.o.’s first victory in six starts since his hurdling debut in 2013. Whether he can progress and defy the weight rise remains to be seen. The books go 9/4 favourite, I am 3/1 on my tissue.

In the following race at 3.35, bottom weighed Potter’s Cross had every chance when falling five out on latest start. Of his rivals, I see Viva Steve as the main danger. I rate both as 3/1 chances.

Back tomorrow morning.

Professional backer – Horse Racing Advisory Service